With just two weeks to go, Dave Young is really taking aim at the late ante-post markets. Here, he analyses all of the Grade 1 races at the Cheltenham Festival and picks out another TWO bets worth placing before the big meeting gets underway.
ANTE-POST OUTLOOK
Here I will list all my advised Ante-Post bets for the 2024 Cheltenham Festival:
- 1st November – LUCCIA (Mares’ Hurdle – 16/1 generally)
- 7th November – ALLAHO (Ryanair Chase – 5/1 generally)
- 15th November – FACILE VEGA (Arkle Chase – 9/2 generally) + GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (Gold Cup – 2/1) – Double pays 15/1 generally
- 21st November – FLOORING PORTER (Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – 12/1 generally)
- 28th November – MINELLA COCOONER (National Hunt Chase – 16/1 generally)
- 5th December – CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – 33/1 generally)
- 19th December – BRECHIN CASTLE (Champion Bumper – 33/1 generally)
- 3rd January – IT’S FOR ME (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – 10/1 generally NRNB)
- 10th January – HERMES ALLEN (Turners Novices’ Chase – 14/1 NRMB)
- 16th January – HIGH CLASS HERO (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – 12/1 generally NRNB)
- 23rd January – JETARA (Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – 12/1 generally NRNB)
- 31st January – ARGENTO BOY (Champion Bumper – 16/1 generally NRNB)
- 6th February – PREDATORS GOLD (Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle – 20/1 NRNB)
- 13th February – SALVADOR ZIGGY (National Hunt Chase – 8/1 NRNB)
- 13th February – DELTA WORK (Cross Country Chase – 5/1 NRNB)
- 20th February – PROTEKTORAT (Ryanair Chase – 16/1 NRNB)
ANTE-POST OUTLOOK
Officially two weeks out from the opening day of the 2024 Festival which means this is the penultimate entry for the Ante-Post series.
This week I think it’s important to look away from the more recent performances and so I’m going to summarise every single Grade 1 as I see it right now, which will inevitably lend itself to some horses that could be worth taking on and some that should be onside.
SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE
Gone are the years where information was taken from reliable sources, and we were able to live a less impatient life. I’m a victim of the latter as much as anyone but at no point since the Dublin Racing Festival have I thought that BALLYBURN would go anywhere other than the opener. Willie Mullins wants to get off to a flyer as much as us punters do but while he always has numbers on his side, if you look beyond the current favourite then FIREFOX, TULLYHILL & MYSTICAL POWER are quite similar as 2-mile prospects and hardly miles clear of the JERIKO DU REPONET or even TELLHERTHENAME. I say that as much in comparison to the gap to be bridged by those closest to BALLYBURN in the market as I do in comparison for those just behind the same trio.
Hardly a wild opinion I know, but should BALLYBURN fluff his lines then it’s open enough for the rest so I’d be keen to sit this one out if you’re adverse to backing shorties as I’m sure there’s some EW value up for grabs, but there are also 27 other opportunities that could provide a better in.
ARKLE NOVICES CHASE
An incredibly wide-open looking contest and for all that MARINE NATIONALE is about the same price as he was before jumping a fence, he’s raced twice with a tongue-tie and was well beaten last time out so there’s something not the same about him as there was 12 months ago. I’d also reflect on the decision to go Novice Chasing rather than have a crack at open hurdling this season as that looks a little now like Barry may have known he wasn’t much improved from his Novice campaign, or there was a bit of an issue. Still, if one horse in this race is going to run away with this and win like a future Grade 1 open chaser than it’s him. Don’t rue any ante-post slips already placed but certainly think twice about backing him now and maybe wait for market vibes as the indicator to his chance.
CHAMPION HURDLE
A real spectacle in waiting is this years Champion Hurdle and more so because the season has been treated as though CONSTIUTION HILL is already a multiple winner of the race. Sure, he looks very hard to beat and borderline impossible to oppose but as does STATE MAN for playing second fiddle but there’s a chance racing shows again that anything can happen. That said, I’d hardly advise trying to pick the fly in the ointment out amongst the remainder.
Sit back and enjoy would be my suggestion, and with the likes of BALLYBURN possibly shorter than many might want to back singularly, this does open up the chance to play small stakes multiples with the view that there are some strong favourites who could quite easily all dot up.
MARES HURDLE
Sometimes the Mares’ Hurdle appears to be a sub-standard event on Champions Day, however you do also get some real star quality and LOSSIEMOUTH looks to be just that. There is the unknown about her and this trip, so while I think she warrants her price, I’d be reluctant to stake heavily on her to gain any significant payout.
MARIES ROCK & ECHOES IN RAIN have both posted 150’s RPR in recent races including each of them this season plus TELMESOMETHINGGIRL has shown a similar level of form at times, and that trio will at a minimum give the front two in the market something to think about. I find it hard to see anything outside those 5 landing this, but both MARIES ROCK and TELMESOMETHINGGIRL are confirmed for this and could be worth playing against the field for smaller stakes, especially if extended place terms are available on the day, which is highly likely.
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
Although this is a Grade 2, I still want to dig into this race given there are often class horses in it nowadays. I see this as very much a 3-horse race which is reflected in the market. Ultimately, I think CORBETTS CROSS would be the one to beat but I am concerned about his collision last time out being so close to The Festival. SALVADOR ZIGGY looks a typical Gordon Elliott type for this race so I think is the main danger should CORBETTS CROSS falter and while I do understand the liking for EMBASSEY GARDENS, he wouldn’t have been my first choice from Closutton for this race earlier in the season. I’d argue they felt the same, so he’s a bit to prove at his current price for me.
BARING BINGHAM
BALLYBURN’s participation is creating a bit of a false market on the Exchanges but if I was able to call the shots I’d have MYSTICAL POWER in this race alongside ILE ATLANTIQUE & PREDATORS GOLD for Willie Mullins. I’m sure JP will want to be represented in each of the Novice hurdles but also MYSTICAL POWER was due to run in the Lawlors of Naas before the meeting was abandoned and you’d think that leans him more towards this kind of trip than the Supreme. SLADE STEEL is looking to avoid BALLYBURN which I think is a negative outlook towards confidence in his ability and while 7 length defeats to BALLYBURN over hurdles and in a bumper might sound like a positive, it might just emphasise that he’s likely just short of this level.
BROWN ADVISORY
You get one or two horses each year who just sound like they win without issue and this year FACT TO FILE has been in the mould entirely. Odds-on now for the race and both STAY AWAY FAY and MONTY’S STAR look sure to be well above average themselves so it’s another race where the market has it right in terms of the runners. As much as I’d be happy to get FACT TO FILE in some multiples, I think there’s value too in STAY AWAY FAY for each way perms as his Cotswold Chase run is by a long way the best form in this race.
CHAMPION CHASE
While the market has changed from the start of this season the thought process remains the same for most people. EL FABIOLO wins this race but if anyone was to turn him over it’s only JONBON who might be able to do that. I’m sure many will look further down the field to scrape some EW value, but for me I do see that solely as a two-horse race, so EL FABIOLO would also be looking to go in some of those short priced multiples but I’d certainly want some cover with JONBON, even if that comes in the without market.
CHAMPION BUMPER
Looks a good, open renewal but I’m sure jockey bookings and market support will offer some help towards pecking orders on each side of the sea. I’m happy enough with BRECHIN CASTLE and ARGENTO BOY (if he actually comes) against the field but it’s not a race I’d ever heavily invest in, unless I’d seen some substantial form boosts through the season which certainly isn’t the case this year.
TURNERS NOVICES’ CHASE
Looking likely that FACILE VEGA comes here now and while I love the horse, I’m not sure I’d be able to bring myself to bet him over this trip for the first time having been beaten twice in a row coming into this. GINNY’S DESTINY feels like a favourite who might not end up favourite on the day but clearly loves this place. GREY DAWNING is hard to trust in the jumping department but has a big engine while how could anyone back IROKO after his interrupted season so far at a single figure price.
I’d be leaning towards something at a price and ZANAHIYR fits the bill for me as a horse who comes alive at Cheltenham and Aintree. Twice placed in the last two Champion Hurdles and would have beaten EPATANTE at Aintree and followed home CONSTITUTION HILL closely there last term. On figures he’s not got anywhere near the amount to find that the market would have you think so while there’s risks attached to him as a chaser vs a hurdler, this is his happy place and he’s a monstrous price. Seems he’s coming here rather than the Arkle so I can see him fast becoming a wise guys’ horse because he simply is too big a price.
Suggested Bet – ZANAHIYR – 25/1 Betfair/Paddy Power (EW) NRNB
RYANAIR CHASE
I suggested PROTEKTORAT for this race and he’s been confirmed by Dan Skelton for it now so that’s that mentioned but I’d also start to think about the fact it seems the ground isn’t going to be quick this year. Therefore, BANBRIDGE is rightly favourite, but potentially the most ground dependant of the entire field so there could be some value in behind him. CONFLATED, FIL D’OR and APPRECIATE IT are the likely suspects but for me I’d happily wait until the day before thinking of any other plays in the race. For those not involved yet, the time to strike might be now if you’re taking on the favourite.
STAYERS HURDLE
I’m sure it won’t turn out as simple as I’m about to make this, but I think TEAHUPOO was victim to a bad ride last year and with the way he’s been trained this season, they know he left a Championship race on the table. No stone unturned in terms of giving him the best opportunity to go one better this time round and I’m firmly in his camp. IRISH POINT is a massive threat as is CRAMBO, but I do think at this stage both of those would need TEAHUPOO to falter again, which is possible, but I think there’s more chance he wins this year compared to last year so at the prices I’m still drawn to him as a suggestion rather than anyone else.
TRIUMPH HURDLE
SIR GINO must be one of the bankers of the week as he’s just looked a class above a typical juvenile and the rest of the division have exposed themselves as less than the typical bunch. I would be astounded if he wasn’t the winner of this, and in splendid isolation but being priced as short as he is does afford people with an opinion different to mine to get some potential value in taking him on EW as it’s 7/1 bar him. I’d liken him to BALLYBURN, CONSTITUTION HILL, LOSSIEMOUTH and EL FABIOLO in that he’s going to have to fluff his lines if he’s beaten as he’s simply better than his rivals.
ALBERT BARTLETT
I’ve not lost hope with CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL but I do understand my love for him is ruling stronger than the form he has shown this season. Willie Mullins looks set to be mob handed and while that would look convincing that the prize goes back to Closutton, it also suggests there isn’t one stand out contender from his string. That opens the door to make cases for others and I’d probably want to get JOHNNYWHO onside at this stage while he’s 16/1 NRMB in most places. It’s been a long-term target for him, he’s going to fill the frame so you may want to wait for the extended places which will no doubt been on offer for this race, but if you’re a win only bettor then I don’t think he’ll end up bigger on the day than he is now.
GOLD CUP
With GALOPIN DES CHAMPS taking up 50% of the market at even money you’d be right to look for something at a bigger price because there are no cakewalks in any Gold Cup. The one I think is overpriced right now, but again would be more suitable to extended places, is AHOY SENOR at a top price of 66/1 NRMB with Bet365. He comes alive in the spring and on his day there’s not much between him BRAVEMANSGAME and L’HOMME PRESSE who are both significantly shorter than him in the market. At the price he is, it wouldn’t take much to get a reasonable return just on a place and I think he’s probably triple the price he should be in relation to what he could do on the day.
Suggested bet – AHOY SENOR – 66/1 Bet365 (EW) NRMB
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