With The Dublin Racing Festival behind us we’d typically have more answers than questions but there were a few races which were blown wide open and some which have more questions than before. It’s exciting to have so many good-looking betting heats now so I’m going to throw another selection up for consideration.
ANTE-POST OUTLOOK
Here I will list all my advised Ante-Post bets for the 2024 Cheltenham Festival:
- 1st November – LUCCIA (Mares’ Hurdle – 16/1 generally)
- 7th November – ALLAHO (Ryanair Chase – 5/1 generally)
- 15th November – FACILE VEGA (Arkle Chase – 9/2 generally) + GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (Gold Cup – 2/1) – Double pays 15/1 generally
- 21st November – FLOORING PORTER (Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – 12/1 generally)
- 28th November – MINELLA COCOONER (National Hunt Chase – 16/1 generally)
- 5th December – CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – 33/1 generally)
- 19th December – BRECHIN CASTLE (Champion Bumper – 33/1 generally)
- 3rd January – IT’S FOR ME (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – 10/1 generally NRNB)
- 10th January – HERMES ALLEN (Turners Novices’ Chase – 14/1 NRMB)
- 16th January – HIGH CLASS HERO (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – 12/1 generally NRNB)
- 23rd January – JETARA (Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – 12/1 generally NRNB)
- 31st January – ARGENTO BOY (Champion Bumper – 16/1 generally NRNB)
- 6th February – PREDATORS GOLD (Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle – 20/1 NRNB)
ANTE-POST SELECTION
ANTE-POST SELECTION: BARING BINGHAM NOVICES’ HURDLE – PREDATORS GOLD (20/1 NRNB Bet365)
In the opening race in Leopardstown this weekend we saw PREDATORS GOLD a beaten favourite when stable-mate DANCING CITY was able to get first run under a typical Danny Mullins ride. It reminded a little of when MINELLA COCOONER beat MINELLA CROONER where I thought the runner up would be able to reverse the form on another day. We didn’t see that match up again in March and the latter pulled up in Punchestown, but he was sent off a shorter price than his conqueror and Albert Bartlett runner up that day.
This selection wouldn’t be the typical route you’d take with a Golden Cygnet Novice hurdle runner, but I do think the Novice Hurdle division is up in the air more than usual, especially with regards to final targets. That’s why it’s important to use the NRMB concession but even with that the price of 20/1 about PREDATORS GOLD looks huge.
He’s posted an RPR of 150 and been given an official rating of the same so from a standard perspective he’s up there with the best. I also thought in the early stages he was the most fluid novice hurdler I’ve seen in a long time, not just this season. Barely spending anytime in the air and hardly noticeable that he was even off the ground. I thought that if he were to stay this trip on clearly very testing ground that he’d be something out of the ordinary. Still, he was beaten, however I think if this was a shorter trip, he’d have been able to pass the winner.
For all his maiden hurdle isn’t the strongest form, the runner up did still win next time out. PREDATORS GOLD himself though just looked a class above and then over Christmas he was second to CALDWELL POTTER in a Grade 1 who was just sold for a record breaking £740,000. Let’s not forget the pair both want further, but the 2 miles that day was on bad ground. Also don’t forget, that our lad is a year younger and while the winner was having his 7th start, PREDATORS GOLD was having just his third, and with respect, being ridden by Patrick Mullins. In his run this weekend, the winner was having his 6th start under rules vs PREDATORS 4th and the winner is 2 years his senior.
I suppose the one negative I could throw in here is that his sire MASKED MARVEL maybe does produce horses who prefer ease in the ground, however his action looks like one who will certainly handle better ground, so however it comes up on the Wednesday I’d have no excuses for him being able to show his best effort. He’s nowhere near the finished article so the fact he’s rated 150 means to me he’ll run higher than that in March which in most years would see him in with a genuine winning chance.
Performances From The Last Week
Spring Juvenile Hurdle
After SIR GINO’S outrageous effort on Trials day I mentioned that this race would need to see something incredibly special, however the bunched finished would suggest SIR GINO is our 2024 Triumph hurdle winner and I feel I can say that with serious conviction.
KARGESE settled and showed that in doing so she’s up there as one of the best Irish Juveniles, however the likes of BUNTING, who made mistakes as did STORM HEART, would be entitled to get closer if not even beat her with improved rounds. Hopefully a nice bunch all told, however with 5 lengths splitting the first 6 home I’d suggest maybe it’s not a vintage crop we’re witnessing.
Irish Arkle
Just 12 months ago we saw IL ETAIT TEMPS landing the 2m novice hurdle at this meeting and causing a bit of shock after FACILE VEGA seemingly under-performed. Rinse and repeat was the reality this time round, however Supreme winner MARINE NATIONALE was also added to the list of scalps taken and he looked a shadow of the horse he’s promised to be. A run from him too bad to be true, but without the obvious excuse that FACILE had last year in racing far too fast and keen.
FOUND A FIFTY confirmed supremacy over FACILE VEGA by taking second but I’m still not giving up on the son of QUEVEGA for the Arkle proper because I don’t believe he ever shows his best at Leopardstown, but it was improved from Christmas. The fact they appeared to only declare him at the 11th hour after a piece of work hinted at his well being tells me that there’s still plenty left to work on before March, and we saw how Willie was able to rejuvenate him last season in that Supreme. Saying that, I can’t recall the last time an Arkle winner was beaten last time out.
I’d forgive MARINE his effort as the ground would have been slow enough for him however it’s a huge worry and we don’t have the history proving he can bounce back from an unexplainable below par effort.
Ladbrokes Novice Chase
FACT TO FILE landed what I believe to be only the second Graded match race in Ireland, and he did so in some fashion. GAELIC WARRIOR jumped straight enough but still shows that he’s not the same horse going left-handed and while the focus has been on him all season for the Turners, Willie clearly holds FACT TO FILE in high regard to skip hurdling and I think now we know why.
Often Willie will send his really good ones and hopeful Gold Cup horses to the middle trip Novice Chase ( I know AL BOUM went to the then RSA) and I believe that’s where he’ll run probably both FACT TO FILE and GAELIC WARRIOR now. It’s worth noting that GRANGECLARE WEST couldn’t run and when questioned his trainer didn’t really seem to want to say too much. So, this result has potentially huge implications on the Brown Advisory where I think the Brits could end up having an incredibly strong hand with STAY AWAY FAY and GREY DAWNING.
2m Novice Hurdle
BALLYBURN was incredible on Sunday and looks every bit as good as any recent Supreme or Ballymore prospect from Closutton. Where he goes in March will be the subject for debate for a long time now, but I believe he’d prefer the Supreme and gives the KLASSICAL DREAM and APPRECIATE IT vibes where I could see a proper rout in the race.
SLADE STEEL, one of my horses to follow, came out in good light too, and looks a Baring Bingham prospect however he may just be shy of Grade 1 standard so I think he’s short enough for March, despite knowing that is his target now. KING OF KINGSFIELD back in third will be attracting County Hurdle projections, but he’s another I’m just not so sold on as being as good as he can show. I think he’s a really nice horse, but I do think what we’re seeing is the capacity of what he can do, whereas other I feel have more progression to come, this season for certain.
Irish Champion Hurdle
STATE MAN was simply STATE MAN. Any other era he’d be likened to a HURRICANE FLY or a FAUGHEEN but CONSTITUTION HILL is in his way. I will say though, that this effort looked very professional and he’s probably a better horse than he was last year. We saw in Aintree that CONSTITUTION HILL didn’t look unbeatable, and he also had that mistake at the last. I’m not suggesting that the market has it wrong, however I do think STATE MAN will serve it up to him in March and while I don’t think he can beat the reigning champ with him faltering, I am more excited about the Champion Hurdle now than I was before this weekend.
Coming Up This Week
Thursday in Huntingdon it’s the Sidney Bank Novices Hurdle for which JANGO BAIE will be expected to win well and should be Supreme bound following that.
Newbury hosts their Super Saturday with two Grade 2 chases on offer in the Denman Chase and The Game Spirit where we’ll see SHISHKIN in the former and BOOTHILL and hopefully EDWARDSTONE in the latter. Also on the card, there’s the Betfair Hurdle for which OCASTLE DES MOTTES for Willie Mullins has been the subject of significant support while the likes of HANSARD, LUCCIA, LOOKAWAY, UNDER CONTROL, TELLHERTHENAME, BRENTFORD HOPE, IBERICO LORD could all stand in his way. It’s worth keeping an eye on their bumper as well, as BALLYANDY won this before winning in March and this year’s bumper looks wide open as mentioned in last week’s column.
Also, on Saturday on this side of the Irish sea we have Warwick and their own Grade 2 which is the Kingmaker over 2 miles where MATATA is an odds-on favourite at the time of writing and as big as 33/1 NRMB for this years wide open looking Arkle which might be worth a second look. Following this there’s a listed Mares Hurdle over 2m5f where YOU WEAR IT WELL will be looking to get back to winning ways.
In Naas on Saturday, we’re likely to see ALLEGORIE DE VASSY and MASKADA bidding to get back to winning ways in the listed Mares Chase but with INSTIT, HARMONYA MAKER and RIVIERE D’ETEL all potential challengers. This is followed by an intriguing looking Hunters chase with plenty of big names entered, not many bigger in this sphere than BILLAWAY.
Sunday in Navan we should see BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD make her final prep for her tilt at the Mares Novices Hurdle in March while straight after it’s the Grade 2 Boyne Hurdle with the likes of ASTERION FORLONGE, BLAZING KHAL, DELTA WORK, FAROUK D’ALENE, GALVIN, HIDDENVALLEY LAKE, SIR GERHARD and SIRE DU BERLAIS all entered. Also on the card is the Grade 2 Ten Up Novices Chase which historically is a good pointer towards the NH Chase in March, even if just to see who will be fancied there. AMERICAN MIKE, CORBETT CROSS, FAVOURI DE CHAMPDOU (a horse to follow), MINELLA COCOONER (another horse to follow) and NICK ROCKETT could all run.
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