One week out now so it’s time to wrap up the series with a run through of the Handicaps and a few more horses for consideration.
ANTE-POST OUTLOOK
Here I will list all my advised Ante-Post bets for the 2024 Cheltenham Festival:
- 1st November – LUCCIA (Mares’ Hurdle – 16/1 generally)
- 7th November – ALLAHO (Ryanair Chase – 5/1 generally)
- 15th November – FACILE VEGA (Arkle Chase – 9/2 generally) + GALOPIN DES CHAMPS (Gold Cup – 2/1) – Double pays 15/1 generally
- 21st November – FLOORING PORTER (Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase – 12/1 generally)
- 28th November – MINELLA COCOONER (National Hunt Chase – 16/1 generally)
- 5th December – CHAPEAU DE SOLEIL (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – 33/1 generally)
- 19th December – BRECHIN CASTLE (Champion Bumper – 33/1 generally)
- 3rd January – IT’S FOR ME (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle – 10/1 generally NRNB)
- 10th January – HERMES ALLEN (Turners Novices’ Chase – 14/1 NRMB)
- 16th January – HIGH CLASS HERO (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle – 12/1 generally NRNB)
- 23rd January – JETARA (Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – 12/1 generally NRNB)
- 31st January – ARGENTO BOY (Champion Bumper – 16/1 generally NRNB)
- 6th February – PREDATORS GOLD (Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle – 20/1 NRNB)
- 13th February – SALVADOR ZIGGY (National Hunt Chase – 8/1 NRNB)
- 13th February – DELTA WORK (Cross Country Chase – 5/1 NRNB)
- 20th February – PROTEKTORAT (Ryanair Chase – 16/1 NRNB)
- 27th February – ZANAHIYR (Turners Novices’ Chase – 25/1 NRNB), AHOY SENOR (Cheltenham Gold Cup – 66/1 NRNB)
ULTIMA HANDICAP CHASE
In my 10 to follow before the season kicked off, I said this horse was the typical Kim Bailey Ultima type, but for all that he’s that type and well found in the market plus the top trends pick, I also wrote that I don’t think Cheltenham will be his track and he might flop here and win at Aintree. His trainer said similar, about a flatter track probably suiting him more and with the yard pitching in TREWLANE, that’s not a confident move of a horse that’s got this race wrapped up, but I think TREWLANE should run, I just wish they’d put him over the trip before.
VICCTORINO was a bit of an unknown quantity when first sent chasing but quickly showed that he was much better than his opening mark of 138 for which he’s now just 7lbs higher. I say just, and that’s because in beating YEAH MAN giving him 12lbs from December that horse is 10lbs higher now Officially rated 140. He gave FLEGMATIK 5lbs and a beating who would reoppose today off the same difference but did win next time out when downing CHIANTI CLASSICO (I know plenty will say a quiet ride on the runner up). If you want to talk about quiet rides then his entry over 2m4f on trials days looked like a day out for him, and Charlie never put him into the race and kept him wide throughout. Madly he was supported that day despite the trip being at least half a mile too short. Now last time out he was a beaten favourite. But that was a bad a round of jumping as I’ve seen from him, and he still only went down 4 lengths and beaten by a right-handed track specialist. I think there’s more to come from him and Venetia wouldn’t be wasting his chances so to me it would speak volumes if he lined up in this but I’ve not heard whether he will or won’t be running so the NRMB concession is key.
Recommended Bet – VICTTORINO 25/1 NRMB (EW)
BOODLES JUVENILE HANDICAP HURDLE
I quite like EAGLE FANG but no real juice in the 14/1 and for an unfancy trainer you’d expect bigger on the day, one who’s form ties in a little with OSE PARTIR but the line that helps him is in the Stephen’s Day Grade 2 juvenile hurdle where EAGLE FANG wore first time cheek pieces and they may have caused him to run below par so I’m hoping he’s better than his mark.
NARA sported a HOOD on debut when well beaten 4th but was a non-runner a month later having been found in season. Nibbled in a race where conceding lots of weight last month on heavy ground, without the hood but jumped better than on stable debut and travelled into it before fading out of it under a quiet enough ride. I think she’s a huge price with the hype around so many others and with the hood likely to come back on I think that’s the excuse you’d want to see. Plus, in seven of the last 11 renewals something in a hood has finished top 5 and she’s an EW price for sure.
CORAL CUP
BALLYADAM is off a 3lb higher mark then his IHRB figure but a 1lb lower than in last year’s County Hurdle when 5th and he was 5th behind STATE MAN the same race the year prior. He’s also effectively 3lbs lower than when he was 5th in Punchestown (with the IHRB) under Mikey O’Connor running over 2m 3f. Now that day he mad keen for the first half of the race, as they turned in both the 3rd and 4th flew by him and Mikey was guilty of being caught out for a few lengths, he then was short of room on the rail, but I do think if they decide to send him, he’d have had a proper chance.
He settled fine at Christmas over 3 miles behind IRISH POINT and travelled into the race really well finishing only half a length behind ASTERION FORLONGE who’s still rated in the 150’s, had a prep run prior and was found last season beating MONKFISH and then half a length behind KLASSICAL DREAM in the Punchestown Grade 1.
Recommended Bet – BALLYADAM 20/1 NRMB (EW)
GRAND ANNUAL HANDICAP CHASE
PATH D’OROUX is capable of running a big race with his mark of 142 so he’s a likely winner and I fully expect him to be there or thereabouts, but he can throw in bad jumps and that’s not going to win you Grand Annuals, for all that DINOBLUE managed to run pretty well having banked fences last year, but this lad wouldn’t have as much up his sleeve you’d imagine
I’m not sure UNEXPECTED PARTY is quite quick enough to sustain a gallop from the front which is why they persist with him at the middle trip but his beating of KNAPPERS HILL early in the season was a better performance than his current mark of 138. His 5th to STAGE STAR in last season turners is better than his current mark of 138, in fact he got an RPR of 149 for both those runs I’ve mentioned. He’s managed to get himself down 8lbs this season and in that November meeting the yard made a conscious decision to avoid the Arkle trial which JPR ONE had all but won, however he’d have gone off a favourite for that race and who knows what mark he’d be sat on now. They went back to 2 miles after which was the start of getting his mark down.
PERTEMPS FINAL
I’ve liked CHANTRY HOUSE since before his first run this season and he was clearly out for a stroll and did more than they expected. Fast-forward to Sandown in a bog when they STILL ran him to get qualified in a small field, but he failed to do so. Then when he has qualified in 4th, probably at a time where people say Hendo’s horses are out of form, he qualifies snuggly and the look from James Bowen was telling too. The handicapper dropped him 2lbs for that run. Probably too old and single figures about him is a bit mad as he’ll probably find younger legs too good.
TRUSTATRADER PLATE HANDICAP CHASE
CREBILLY is one of the more obvious, substantial and deserving favourites of the entire Festival and the price about him isn’t terrible, although there’s a concrete floor stopping anything being much shorter this week, especially over fences. Saying that, THE SHUNTER was sent off at 9/4 and even the year prior SIMPLY THE BETTS was 10/3. And with three favourites winning from the last six runnings, and one other finishing at 9/2 this race has got previous strength in betting towards a stronger favourite.
KIM MUIR HANDICAP CHASE
INOTHEWAYURTHIKIN got just 2lbs from the UK Handicapper and that looks like a reasonable enough figure to give him his favourites chance. COOL SURVIVOR is now Gordon Elliott’s first string after FIRM FOOTINGS was confirmed a non-runner and this is a race that often is narrowed down by the market.
COUNTY HURDLE
BIALYSTOK was caught wide turning in in the Royal Bond and lost at least a couple of lengths on KING OF KINGSFIELD, he also wandered as they jumped the first in the home straight. He won at Punchestown last season in a first time hood where he flashed his tail, he’s quirky and needs some help, but to top this off, he was well backed in the DRF and travelling as well as anything when brought down 2 from home. I think he’s been let in lightly off this mark, I wouldn’t be surprised to see headgear reapplied and considering Willie Mullins has won 6 of the last 14 I think he’s planned a new approach with the 4 runs for novices ruling and BIALYSTOK is the stables best chance this year despite ABSURDE also catching the eye last time out. He was only gelded in January last year so there’s bundles more to come from him and most of last year over hurdles would be similar to a bumper campaign.
Recommended Bet – BIALYSTOK 12/1 NRMB
MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONAL JOCKEYS’ HANDICAP HURDLE
I’ll start off with the fact SIR DES CHAMPS 2011 is the only favourite to have ever won this race. Nine of the last 10 winners were 14/1 or shorter though, and 8 of the last 10 were 12/1 or shorter.
That was Willie Mullins and Gigginstown and if we talk about those two, GIGGY have had 17 runners in the race, four won, five placed and COLUMN OF FIRE looked like the winner when falling at the last but at least would have placed. They won the race back-to-back in 2017 & ’18 then had second and third in 2019 but this was also round the time that they pulled horses from Closutton over fees. Now 2022 COLUMN OF FIRE has been mentioned already but the last three winners are GALOPIN DES CHAMPS – Gold Cup winner, BANBRIDGE – Ryanair Favourite, and IROKO – who despite missing most of the season is still prominent in the Turners betting.
GIGGINSTOWN and Willie have joined forces again and you can see why QUAI DE BOURBON is single figures. Two spins in France means he only needed the two runs over here, Willie’s let him win both of those and I’d still argue all of Willie’s will have been able to improve from their first run and he was a comfortable winner in his. They dropped him back in trip in January, quiet enough race being a four-runner affair but put 20 between himself and a 121 rated horse, giving him 4lbs. He narrowly beat stablemate WESTPORT COVE who is an out and out 2-miler, and whose only entry is in the county and was given a quiet enough time himself behind TULLYHILL the last day (for his 4th hurdles spin)
If you’re thinking about the next GALOPIN DES CHAMPS it’s big shoes to fill but QUAI DE BOURBON has the right profile for this and I think he wins. Stable of course have the talking horse SA MAJESTE who beat Grand National and Cleeve hurdle winner NOBLE YEATS over 2m4f, third was getting 16lbs, rated 105 and has been beaten 30 and 34 lengths since. I know the vibes are strong about this one and that’s not to be ignored, but I’m not convinced off levels with QUAI DE BOURBON that he’s the one you’d expect to win and I don’t believe the yard do either.
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