The Grand Annual is the oldest race run at the Cheltenham Festival, tracing its roots back to 1834. We have looked at the most recent 20 runnings to come up with the key stats to follow when looking for the winner in 2024.
Age
Despite being a 2m handicap chase, a bit of experience has gone a long way in recent years. Three winners in the last 20 years have been aged ten and older, with Croco Bay causing a huge upset at the age of 12 in 2019. A further five winners have been nine years old in this time period.
That said, some younger horses have begun to improve their record. Three of the last six winners have been aged seven, including last year’s winner Maskada, while six-year-old Solar Impulse won in 2016. Meanwhile, no five-year-old has won since 1954, so any unexposed novices of the youngest demographic are worth avoiding.
Age of the Last 20 Grand Annual Winners
- 5 and below – 0 winners
- 6 – 2 winners
- 7 – 4 winners
- 8 – 5 winners
- 9 – 5 winners
- 10+ – 3 winners
Starting Price
Backing favourites would not have got you far in the Grand Annual in the last two decades. Only three have been successful, with one of those being as far back as we look in 2004 with St Pirran. Chosen Mate, in 2020, is the only winning favourite in the last ten years too, although a further five winners have gone off at 10/1 or shorter.
Shocks have occurred relatively regularly too, with seven winners at 20/1 or bigger, including in the last two renewals courtesy of Global Citizen (28/1) and Maskada (22/1). Those two pale in comparison to the upsets caused by Oiseau De Nuit at 40/1 in 2011, and Croco Bay at 66/1 in 2019.
Starting Price of the last 20 Grand Annual Winners
- <5/1 – 3 winners
- 11/2-10/1 – 5 winners
- 11/1-18/1 – 5 winners
- 20/1+ – 7 winners
Weight Carried
The complexion of the race changed considerably in 2019 when the number of runners was restricted from 24 to 20. Even before that, the trend of weight carried had turned on its head from every winner between 2004 to 2013 carrying below 11st, to each winner from 2014 to 2018 carrying at least 11st.
Croco Bay was the first winner for six years to shoulder under 11st after the quantity change, though the compressed nature of the handicap ensures it strongly favours those carrying more than that benchmark now. Last year Maskada, despite being lumbered with 11st 1lb, was right towards the bottom of the handicap. Then again, those towards the very top of the handicap have struggled too, with Le Prezien carrying the highest weight at 11st 8lb.
Weight Carried by the Last 20 Grand Annual Winners
- 10st-10st 6lb – 7 winners
- 10st 7lb-10st 12lb – 5 winners
- 11st-11st 6lb – 7 winners
- 11st 7lb-11st 13lb – 1 winner
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