Day one may be yet to get underway, but Matty Sutcliffe is already in the search for value for Wednesday at the Cheltenham Festival. He has five selections for you below, all at tempting prices.
Published: 9:30am, Tuesday, 12th March (Odds correct at time of publication)
2.10pm Cheltenham – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Broadway Novices’ Chase) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Stay Away Fay 10/3 2pt (NAP) WIN
Fact To File has been talked up as a Gold Cup horse in the making but he’s awfully short for one whose form doesn’t necessarily warrant such a price. He looked impressive in dismantling Gaelic Warrior in a match race last time out, but that one was evidently not right within himself there, and his 17-length victory over Zanahiyr doesn’t scream ‘top class’, as the Nathaniel gelding is not your archetypal chaser, and he only just scraped home next time out.
STAY AWAY FAY is rated on a par with Fact To File (159), 12lb clear of the field and his experience at the Festival can be taken into strong consideration here. The Shantou gelding was impressive in last year’s Albert Bartlett, jumping fluently in front and staying on strongly up the run in. This sharper test on the Old Course will suit his front running style, and he’s seemingly a very uncomplicated type. His attitude for a novice chaser is perhaps too laid back hence why connections have reached for cheekpieces here, and his third in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase is easily the best piece of form in this race here given that was his first attempt in open company, beaten three lengths by the 159-rated Capodanno and ¾-of-a-length by the 162-rated The Real Whacker, who won this race last season.
Connections won this race in 2019 with the talented Topofthegame, and can reclaim their crown with this progressive, smart chaser in Stay Away Fay.
2.50pm Cheltenham – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Might I 14/1 1pt EW 6 places
Top-weight Ballyadam was advised ante-post (20/1 generally, 25/1 William Hill) so I’ll leave him out of this column given he’s a top priced 16/1, though I’m just as confident in his chances. However, with six places on offer, as opposed to the original three, I wouldn’t put anyone off an each-way bet at 16/1.
There’s several angles you could explore in here, not least the ‘spring sun on his back’ Langer Dan, who is down to the mark he won this race on last season. The unexposed Sa Majeste could be let in lightly off a mark of 140 and was supposedly a muddle for the BHA to handicap given his four-length victory over the subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner Noble Yeats, who’s rated 152 over hurdles. The 5/1 could look ‘value’ come Wednesday, but favourites don’t have a great record in this contest and could be worth taking on based on his lack of handicapping experience, though I don’t doubt he could be well ahead of his mark.
The one I’m keen to back alongside Ballyadam here is MIGHT I, who’s now 3lb lower than his four lengths fourth in a competitive Martin Pipe last season. He gave the three ahead of him 14lb, 6lb, and 7lb respectively off joint top-weight, with the third now rated 21lb higher and the winner (Iroko) was third in the Grade 1 Sefton at Aintree next time out.
Chasing hasn’t gone to plan for Might I, with him looking anything but a natural, and he could be well-handicapped back over timber. We see it quite often in these competitive handicaps throughout the season where the winner has exposed a lower mark of hurdles after a poor chase campaign, with this race in particular backing up that trend in recent years.
Might I looks seriously well-treated on his novice hurdling form when you consider he was second in the Grade 1 Mersey Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree, after being beaten four lengths by Jonbon and fourteen lengths by Constitution Hill earlier in the season. His top three RPR’s over hurdles have come in fields between 12-21 and this sharper course should suit him as he can be a tad keen, but he’s likely to get the quick gallop he prefers and a reproduction of last year’s Martin Pipe effort should see him bang there on Wednesday off this mark.
3.30pm Cheltenham – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Captain Guinness 16/1 1.5pt (NB) EW 3 places
The redemption of Edwardstone last time out has changed the complexion of this race, which initially wasn’t burdened with a plethora of pace. If Alan King decides to mirror those aggressive, quick front running tactics, then that could put the jumping of some of these to the test, not least the 1/2 favourite El Fabiolo. While he’s undoubtedly the most talented horse in the race, he is prone to an error and you don’t want to miss a single beat in this race. Jonbon isn’t exempt from throwing in a wild jump either, and for all he’s beaten Edwardstone twice this season, he could be vulnerable should his jumping be put to the test.
CAPTAIN GUINNESS has fallen short against El Fabiolo and Jonbon before, but he only has three lengths to find with the latter on their Sandown form from last season and if one of the top three fail to pass the jumping test, then it’s not impossible to see Captain Guinness in the top three. He was a ten-length second to Energumene when keen enough in this race last season and also has an Arkle third in his CV. He makes few errors in the jumping department and a strongly run Champion Chase would seriously play to his strengths.
4.50pm Cheltenham – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) Solness 14/1 1pt EW 5 places + Unexpected Party 14/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
SOLNESS features in my ante-post Lucky15 but he’s still a 14/1 shot and yet to come in, though with the potential for drying ground on Wednesday (soft still no issue), I’d be surprised if he goes off above 10/1, and I’ll copy some of the reasoning in here for those who haven’t seen it. .
“In the last ten renewals, there’s been just one winner of the Grand Annual who, prior to winning the race (UK races only), hadn’t either won or placed over 2m3f+ or recorded an RPR of 142+ over a 2m3f distance, which was Savello in 2014, though he had won over 2m1f. The trends therefore suggest you want something to fit the angle I’m exploring. That trend would be against four of the top ten in the market in My Mate Mozzie, Madara, Path D’oroux, and In Excelsis Deo. Winning SPs can also be noted here, as there’s been just two winners returning an SP lower than 10/1 in the last ten years, with odds of 14/1, 16/1 (x2), 22/1, 28/1 (x2) and 66/1 all winning. Dancing On My Own, Saint Roi and last year’s winner Maskada would also be vulnerable as there’s been just one winner numbered 4 or less in the cloth, though Le Prezien carried 11st 8lb (highest in last ten renewals) to win in 2018. I think it’s fair to say there appears to be a gulf in class between some of these in this year’s renewal so I wouldn’t be surprised if one of those horses towards the top of the weights came up trumps, and Solness for Joseph O’Brien is one who ticks the box of being speedy enough to win over 2m but stays further. The son of Konig Turf has some smart Novice Chase form to his name, beaten two lengths by the classy hurdler Saldier on chase debut, before making all to win two chases with relative ease, latterly recording an RPR of 142, He then bumped into Hercule Du Seuil twice, beaten 13 lengths the first time when giving him 5lb, then just six lengths next time out off level weights in a Grade 3 Novice Chase at Galway. Hercule Du Seuil is now rated 150 having won two further G3’s, so Solness’ mark of 148 doesn’t look too high on that evidence. Those aforementioned bits of form came on a range of tracks/conditions, whether it be left/right handed, or on sharp/undulating/ galloping tracks, so the Cheltenham test is unlikely to faze him. Solness improved on that novice form when taking a Listed race at Fairyhouse by six lengths, finishing well ahead of the likes of Pats Choice, Path D’Oroux, The Folks Tiara and Dancing On My Own, who he’ll likely all meet again next Wednesday. His jumping was particularly impressive there, and he fared the best of those who were held up in midfield early on. Despite taking a keen hold, he was still able to find a second gear despite using up plenty of energy, putting in an excellent leap at the last and staying on strongly through the line. He was put up 9lb for that effort but effectively ran off a 14lb higher mark next time out in a 52K chase a Leopardstown, where he raced widest of all throughout, covering far more ground than the two in front of him who he was giving 14lb and 11lb to respectively. He now has an 8lb swing with Madara and a 6lb swing with Path D’Oroux, so I’d be confident enough he’ll reverse that form. I’d expect this big field/strong gallop to play into his strengths as he can take a hold, and those two previous efforts in similar handicaps will have put him straight for this.”
UNEXPECTED PARTY is more of a tentative selection but I can’t get away from the idea he’s been campaigned for a couple of seasons with this in mind. He’s had just two races over fences around two miles, the first in the G1 Henry VIII Novices Chase in 2022 when 20 lengths behind Jonbon and eight behind Boothill, then the second in the same race the following season in deplorable conditions behind the likes of leading British Arkle hope JPR One and subsequent Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase winner, Colonel Harry.
He was supposedly primed for a victory on seasonal debut when beating Knappers Hill at Chepstow, but his form dipped progressively since. That said, his best effort came in the 14-runner Paddy Power Gold Cup when fifth behind Stage Star having weakened after the last. He was only a length behind Fugitif there who backed the form up next time out in the December Gold Cup with Il Ridoto in second further boosting the November form, and Unexpected Party is now 8lb lower than that run.
I just wonder whether a strongly run 2m on the Old Course will play into his strengths, as he’s completely unexposed at this distance in handicaps and shapes as if he’ll thrive for the test. Harry Skelton retains the faith and he’s worth chancing in the hope the Skeltons have masterfully campaigned him for this race.
Matty Sutcliffe’s Cheltenham Value Punts
2.10 Cheltenham – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Broadway Novices’ Chase) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Stay Away Fay 10/3 2pt (NAP) WIN
2.50 Cheltenham – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+) – Might I 14/1 1pt EW 6 places
3.30 Cheltenham – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) – Captain Guinness 16/1 1.5pt (NB) EW 3 places
4.50pm Cheltenham – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) Solness 14/1 1pt EW 5 places
4.50pm Cheltenham – Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+) Unexpected Party 14/1 0.5pt EW 5 places
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