With Cheltenham continuing to close in, Matty Sutcliffe looks to the novice chases for his third ante-post column looking forward to the 2024 Cheltenham Festival. In particular, he has a Venetia Williams-trained runner on his radar.
Published: 5.30pm 6th February (Odds correct at time of publication)
Arkle – Djelo (25/1 generally, 33/1 Bet365 NRNB EW)
The action at the Dublin Racing Festival last weekend has drastically changed the makeup of this year’s Arkle, with Marine Nationale’s ten-length defeat in the Irish equivalent bursting his bubble of invincibility. There were warning signs regarding his wind prior given he was equipped with a tongue-tie on chasing debut and while his wind was evidently in good health there, the same can’t be said for his effort on Saturday and you’d have to be concerned going forward that it won’t become a recurring issue over fences, particularly up the Cheltenham Hill.
Il Etait Temps took the Grade One in game fashion, getting up by a neck from long time leader Found A Fifty, and subsequently shot to second favouritism for the Arkle. Interestingly, he was also equipped with a tongue-tie there, and it’s a slight concern given none of the last ten winners of the Arkle had that aid applied, though several had finished second, with just one winner having been applied with any sort of headgear (Western Warhorse hooded in 2014, 33/1).
I think it’s fair to say that the current crop of two-mile novice chaser’s are far from vintage. Regarding the main protagonists, Found A Fifty will likely be thereabouts, but did he really improve that much on Saturday? He had Sharjah seven lengths behind, but he’s only improved on that form-line by four lengths as he previously had him behind by three lengths on Boxing Day and with respect to Sharjah, he’s a ten-year old novice chaser who’s looks as if he’s been aimed for a big two-mile handicap, so to what extent is Found A Fifty’s form all that honest? Though Gaelic Warrior would likely have been going to the Turners prior to his bubble bursting at the DRF, Facile Vega is still likely to stay at 2m for the Arkle, which, in my humble opinion, is mind-blowing considering he’s been beaten (with no excuses) twice over this trip since his chase debut (where there was a distinct lack of triers in behind) and shapes very much like he needs to go up in distance, not forgetting his excellent dam was a multiple winner of the 2m4f Mares Hurdle.
In summary, there is an unusual amount of negatives for those towards the head of the market this year and it appears impossible to strongly nail your colours to the mast, so I’ve looked towards those at the bottom end of the market and DJELO makes large appeal. The NRNB concession is key here, as he’s entered in the Turners and features in both the Grand Annual/Plate Handicap markets as well, but while some may say his staying on second in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles win Saturday suggests he’d be better suited to the 2m4f trip, I’d argue the opposite and suggest his blend of speed and stamina suggests he’d be bang there in a strongly run, weak enough Arkle.
I was very keen on the chances of Le Patron last weekend, but he never jumped too fluently under Niall Houlihan who was on board him for the first time. I’ve watched the race back several times now, and I don’t think many, if any of the top novice chasers would’ve laid a glove on Nickle Back that day. I completely disagree with those slating the jockeys’ rides in behind, as their mounts simply can’t go quick enough with the leader and be comfortable in their own rhythm regarding travelling/jumping at the same time. Nickle Back is one of those rare anomalies in National Hunt racing where despite setting an overly quick gallop up front, if he pings every fence, particularly at a track like Sandown, then he’s bound to take horses out of their comfort zones. Obviously at that speed there’s higher margin for error and the leader more often than not comes back to the field but unfortunately for my selection Le Patron, and the ill-fated Hermes Allen, that wasn’t the case. The only horse who was able to consistently jump well (bar two slight errors, still landed running) and travel into the race was Djelo. I’d say by three out at the most, all the jockeys in behind knew their mount was beaten, but Djelo still had the stamina to come home well under hands and heels and close the gap to seven lengths, while the 148-rated Colonel Harry was beaten 29 lengths and the 150-rated Le Patron was beaten 35 lengths.
In my mind, to summarise the race up, Nickle Back was able to take superior horses out of their comfort zone. While Djelo was taken out of his comfort zone, he was still able to perform to a capable level in company where you typically need to both jump and travel at speed with little margin for error. So despite him being beaten seven lengths at the finish, there were plenty of positives to take out of the race, which was arguably his best effort over fences yet, to suggest he’s a graded animal. I’m certainly not suggesting he’s your archetypal Grade 1 Festival winner, but at the same time there’s nothing in the Arkle this season that you can see going on to become a Champion Chase winner.
Regarding his earlier form, he beat Master Chewy 3/4L on handicap/fences debut at Aintree off 128. That one has since finished second to the subsequent Grade 1 Clarence House winner Elixir De Nutz, and beaten the Grade 1 Scilly Isles winner Nickle Back by four lengths. So there is collateral form to back up the selection as opposed to merely chancing he’ll capitalise in a weak renewal. He’s tactically versatile, having won from rear, midfield and making all, and he has a lovely cruising speed along with a turn of foot, as demonstrated when kicking clear at Ascot despite making all firmly on the bridle. As we’ve the privilege of NRNB, I won’t be too disheartened if connections chance the seemingly more obvious route of a Scilly Isles horse and head towards the Turners, but that contest looks much stronger towards the fore of the market and while I’m possibly more inclined to suggest this bet is formed on the basis he’ll have a place chance, I don’t think it’s out of the question to suggest he’s capable of winning the Arkle, with seemingly few chinks in his armour.
Matthew Sutcliffe’s Cheltenham Value Punts – Sky’s the Limit for Amarillo at 100/1
Our GG expert Matty Sutcliffe returns for his second Cheltenham ante-post look ahead of the 2024 Festival. This week, he has his eyes trained on the Champion Chase and Ryanair Chase with two massive-priced selections. Published: 1.00pm 31st January (Odds correct at time of publication) Champion Chase – Amarillo Sky 66’s generally, 100/1 Betfair (E/W)…
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