The National Hunt Chase is one of the oldest jumps races in existence, with the inaugural running held way back in 1860. It remains open only to amateur jockeys and requires serious endurance on the parts of both man and horse. We have looked into the main statistics to find which trends can guide you to the winner.
Age
This Cheltenham Festival contest is a race largely dominated by seven-year-olds, with 11 of the last 20 runnings going to horses of that age group. That includes the last three renewals, and five of the last seven. Every winner within that 20 year bracket has been aged between six and ten.
That said, no six-year-old has won since Minella Rocco in 2016, and only two horses of that age count within this time period. This is also the case for ten-year-olds, but both victors of that age group have come in the last six years. In weaker renewals, the extra age, stamina and experience counts, though in stronger years, it is definitely the seven-year-olds in their prime who come to the fore.
Age of the Last 20 National Hunt Chase Winners
- 5 – 0 winners
- 6 – 2 winners
- 7 – 11 winners
- 8 – 4 winners
- 9 – 1 winner
- 10+ – 2 winners
Starting Price
The National Hunt Chase has not been a favourites’ domain over the years. That said, of the four outright market leaders to score, two of them were 5/1, so you would have made a decent return on those alone. It shows how the race has changed that in the last 20 years, only two horses have started at odds-on, and both have come in the last four years.
One was winning favourite Gaillard Du Mesnil a year ago, who was also the first favourite to win in ten years. Further winners at 2/1, 7/2 and 9/2 have also come since 2018, so they are now easier to find in the market, though double-figure odds shots have still won eight of the last 20 renewals. Another Rum, at 40/1 in 2005, went off at the biggest price.
Starting Price of the Last 20 National Hunt Chase Winners
- <Evs – 1 winner
- 11/10-3/1 – 2 winners
- 7/2-15/2 – 5 winners
- 8/1-10/1 – 4 winners
- 11/1+ – 8 winners
Official Rating
Another Rum did not have an official rating when winning in 2005, but the pattern throughout the other 19 winners is obvious. The six lowest-rated winners came between 2004 and 2010, during which you only needed to be rated around an average of 127 to have the ability to win the race.
However, since Chicago Grey took the race having already possessed an official rating of 151 in 2011, the race has markedly changed complexion. From 2011 onwards, the average official rating of the National Hunt Chase winner has been 148, 21lb higher than the average between 2004-2010. Indeed, the race is ever-improving, with the highest-rated winners coming in the last two years in Stattler (153) and Gaillard Du Mesnil (155).
Official Rating of the Last 20 National Hunt Chase Winners
- <135 – 5 winners
- 136-140 – 2 winners
- 141-145 – 3 winners
- 146-150 – 4 winners
- 151+ – 5 winners
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.