Jump racing returns to Cheltenham on Friday 23 and Saturday 24 October, and the Showcase meeting has 14 races over the two days, headlined by the Grade 2 Sharp Novices’ Hurdle. With many of the big yards only just stepping up their jumps campaigns, knowing which trainers fire in October and which thrive at Prestbury Park is a big help for punters.
We have been through every trainer’s form in Britain in October over the last five years, and every hurdle and chase at Cheltenham since October 2021. Each trainer’s October strike rate is compared with their usual strike rate over hurdles and fences across the same five seasons. The ideal trainer to follow is in form in October and good at Cheltenham, and the one to avoid is the opposite.
Trainers to follow at Cheltenham’s October meeting
Martin Keighley
Martin Keighley ticks every box. His runners strike at 17.2% in October against a usual 11.6%, and a £1 level-stakes bet on all 87 of them would have returned a profit of just shy of £100. At Cheltenham, he has had seven winners from 63 runners since October 2021, good for a further £50.50 profit, with Back On The Lash winning twice on the cross-country course and Hung Jury twice at big prices.
Better still, three of those winners came at this meeting. Found On won a novices’ handicap chase at 9/2 in 2022, Pinnacle Peak won a handicap hurdle at 28/1 a year later, and De Temps En Temps won a novices’ hurdle at 22/1 last October. His runners are rarely short in the betting, so they are well worth a second look.
Henry de Bromhead
Most of Henry de Bromhead’s October runners are in Ireland, so his figures include both sides of the Irish Sea. Over the last five Octobers, he has had 51 winners from 238 runners over hurdles and fences, a strike rate of 21.4% against a usual 14.6%. The Knockeen trainer is also on an upward curve, with 11 winners from 44 runners in October 2024 and 18 from 58 last October.
His record at Prestbury Park is solid, with 21 winners from 171 runners since October 2021, and backing all of them would still have shown a small profit. However, this meeting is where he really comes into his own. He has had four winners from 19 runners, ten have finished in the first three, and he has struck in each of the last three years with Dancing On My Own (14/1) and Whacker Clan (12/1) in 2023, Senior Chief (11/1) in 2024 and Zurich (10/1) last year. A £1 level-stakes bet on all of his runners at the meeting would have returned a £32 profit.
Gavin Cromwell
Gavin Cromwell’s October figures also include his runners in Ireland. He has had 45 winners from 302 runners over hurdles and fences in October over the last five years, a strike rate of 14.9% against a usual 11.0%, and his best month came in October 2023, when 13 of his 56 runners won.
The Gold Cup-winning trainer also has a fine record at Prestbury Park, with 17 winners from 115 runners since October 2021 (14.8%). Inothewayurthinkin won the Gold Cup in 2025, Flooring Porter took the 2022 Stayers’ Hurdle, and Stumptown and Final Orders have made the cross-country course their own. At this meeting, he has had four winners from 13 runners, with seven finishing in the first three. Three of those winners were novice chasers, My Mate Mozzie and Flooring Porter in 2023 and Path D’Oroux in 2024, so any chasing debutants he sends over demand respect. They tend to be well found in the market, though, with three of his four winners at the meeting sent off at 6/4 or shorter.
Just missed the cut: Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls
Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls were the next closest British yard to miss out. Their October strike rate of 20.9% is almost six points above their usual 15.0%, and they have struck at 18% or better in every October since 2022. They have also had six winners from just 38 Cheltenham runners since October 2021 (15.8%), which would have returned a £32.30 profit to a £1 level stake, including Chianti Classico in the 2024 Ultima and 40/1 shot White Noise in March. However, they have sent only four runners to this meeting in the last five years, which is too small a sample to back them at the Showcase with confidence.
Trainers to avoid at Cheltenham’s October meeting
Christian Williams
Christian Williams’ yard is very slow to get going. His runners have won just seven of 155 races over hurdles and fences in October, a strike rate of 4.5% that is less than half his usual 9.7%, and he has had only three October winners in the last four years. A £1 level-stakes bet on all of them would have lost £114.40.
Cheltenham has not been much kinder as a venue, as he has had just two winners from 34 runners since October 2021, and both came from Strictlyadancer in amateur riders’ handicap chases in the autumn of 2021, including at this meeting. He has drawn a blank from his other 12 runners at the Showcase meeting.
Gary and Josh Moore
On the face of it, Gary and Josh Moore’s October strike rate of 14.9% is only a little below their usual 16.3%. However, that figure is propped up by 14 winners in October 2021. Over the last three Octobers, they have managed just four winners from 67 runners, including a blank from 29 in 2024.
Their Cheltenham record is even weaker, with five winners from 78 runners (6.4%) since October 2021. Three of those came from the brilliant Editeur Du Gite, including the 2023 Clarence House Chase in Grade 1 company. Their only success at this meeting came at 4/9 with Give It To Me Oj last year, and even he was made to work very hard for that victory.
Ben Pauling
Ben Pauling’s October record is solid, at 17.9% against a usual 17.4%, but his Cheltenham numbers are a major concern. He has had just seven winners from 129 runners over hurdles and fences at the track since October 2021. That 5.4% strike rate is the lowest of any trainer with 100 or more runners there, and backing them all would have cost £56.30.
When the yard does strike, it is usually in a big-field handicap. Global Citizen won the Grand Annual at 28/1, Shakem Up’arry won the Plate and Meetmebythesea won at the Festival in March. Nevertheless, Pauling has had just one winner from 16 runners at this meeting, Mole Court at 9/1 in 2023, so his runners can be opposed next weekend.
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