The home of jumps racing returns each October for the Showcase Meeting at Cheltenham, which is a two-day festival with 10 of the 14 races a Class 2 or better and the remainder Class 3’s.
It might be early in the season, but there are still races here which have been won by Cheltenham Festival winners in the same season, so I’ve highlighted two of the races that I believe warrant the most attention, with a view to the rest of the season including the Festival.
N.B. For good measure I’ve given a quick line to ALL races across both days too (find them at the end).
SHARP NOVICES’ HURDLE (FRIDAY)
Grade 2 | 2m½f | Day 1
Grade 2’s this early in the season have every chance of creating future Grade 1 winners and we’ve seen plenty turn into those at the highest level, with Altior, Cue Card and Dodging Bullets amongst the biggest names.
I’ve looked at the last 16 renewals to capture the trio mentioned in an attempt to uncover how predictable finding the winner of this race can be.
Topline Trends
- 14 of the last 16 winners were aged either 4 (4) or 5 (10)
- 14 of the last 16 winners were British trained
- 12 of the last 16 winners last ran between 15 and 29 days ago
- 12 of the last 16 winners were either 1st (5) or 2nd (7) favourite
- 12 of the last 16 winners had raced no further than 2m1f in their career
- Colin Tizzard (now Joe) has a 75% strike-rate with 3 wins from 4 runners
- There have been 4 runners who had their furthest win at 2m4f and 3 of those won
Age
Most winners were aged 5 and backing those blind would show a £4.38 level stake profit. They operate at an 18% strike-rate, which is the same for 4-year-olds, but 6-year-olds are just 1 from 20 in the last 16 years. There has been 1 winning 7-year-old from 4 who tried.
Trainer
The Tizzards, David Pipe, Dan Skelton and Nicky Henderson are all multiple winners of this race in the last 16 years and it’s only Nicky Henderson who isn’t profitable to back blind, although he’s also not a loss-maker. The Tizzards have had 3 winners from 4 runners, so they know what it takes to land this and they don’t seem to waste chances.
Only John McConnell in 2022 and Jessica Harrington in 2011 have been successful as a non-British trainer in this race, although the race isn’t littered with horses who have tried.
Last Run
13 of the 16 winners won last time out but that’s a heavy loss-maker blind, whereas 2 winners placed 3rd and 4th last time out and both those markers are profitable blind.
12 of the 16 winners last ran between 15 and 29 days ago, which shows a 16% ROI if backing blind. You’d find 10 of the 12 winners if you moved the last ran window to between 19 and 29 days and in doing so will increase the ROI to 46%.
Favouritism
There have been 5 winning favourites from the last 16 renewals, but these show a near 30% loss if backing blind. There have been 7 winning second favourites in the same period and they are profitable to back blind with a 44% ROI. So, respect the market, but don’t trust the ranking explicitly.
Distance Form
12 of the last 16 winners had raced at no further than 2m1f in their career, but that’s not too surprising given both how early this contest is run in the season and the fact it’s a Novice Hurdle event.
Of the 4 who had run over further, their maximum distance was either 2m4f or 2m5f and each of those qualifying distances are profitable to back blind. There are 3 winners who had their furthest career win at 2m4f and only 4 runners ticked that box, so they operate at a 75% strike-rate and show a decent 178% ROI.
3M1F NOVICES’ CHASE (SATURDAY)
Class 2 | 3m1f | Day 2
It’s 6 years since Galvin took this contest and was put away until March, where he successfully landed the NH Chase at The Festival. While we’ve had no other Festival winner since Gordon Elliott took the NH Chase again with Chicago Grey in the same season as landing this, we’ve seen some near misses. Chemical Energy, again for Gordon, came second, but Mahler Mission, who was beaten in here, was clear when falling in the same Festival contest.
I appreciate the NH Chase itself has changed in its conditions, but I still believe this race will point to future winners. So, I’ve taken a view of the last 10 renewals to give an idea of what it typically takes to find the winner of this contest.
Topline Trends
- 9 of the last 10 winners were sent off 6/1 or shorter
- 9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 9 of the last 10 winners were NOT wearing any headgear
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7
- 8 of the last 10 winners had run at about 3m or further before now
- 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners had run at Cheltenham more than once
Price
9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 in the market, with 4 favourites, 1 second favourite and 4 third favourites making up the total. It’s the third favourites that make this bucket profitable to back blind, with backing them alone showing a 109% ROI.
You could back all runners sent off 6/1 or shorter blind to make money and find most winners, but it’s those sent off between 9/2 and 6/1 that are doing the heavy lifting with 3 winners and a 100% ROI.
Headgear
9 of the last 10 winners were NOT sporting any headgear and operate at a 21% strike-rate, as opposed to the 10% strike-rate for those in headgear.
The winner in headgear came in 2021 when Does He Know was sent off as favourite in a Hood. He’s 1 of 3 horses who sported headgear and were sent off favourite, so while you’d find all 10 winners if you said no headgear unless the favourite, you’d make more money if you just said no headgear regardless of market status.
Age
6 and 7-year-olds account for 4 winners each, but 8-year-olds house the other 2 winners and all three ages sit at around a 25% strike-rate. It’s 7-year-olds though who are profitable to back blind, so you’d want a 6-8-year-old with a slight preference for the 7-year-olds.
Form
7 of the last 10 winners had run at Cheltenham more than once before and that alone provides a system showing a 26% ROI.
7 of the last 10 winners won last time out, which makes money, but not much.
8 winners had run at about 3 miles or further before now, but that would account for most runners. It’s those who had their furthest career runs at 2m6f or 2m6½f that could be worth considering as they’ve found 2 winners from 5 qualifiers showing a 60% ROI.
RACE-BY-RACE: DAY 1 (FRIDAY)
13:15 Handicap Hurdle (0-140) (Class 3) 2m4f
This race has been run over 2m4f for the last 5 years but previously was a 2m5½f contest and 2m5f up to 2015. Plenty of nice horses have landed this and it’s Seddon back in 2022 who went on to win at the same season’s Festival, although that win came over fences in the Plate.
13:50 Novices’ Steeple Chase (Class 2) 2m
A race unlikely to throw up a big-priced winner, with 11 of the last 13 winners being the favourite and no double-figure priced winner in the last 20 years.
14:25 Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (0-140) (Class 3) 2m½f
This might be a 0-140 contest, but most winners are much lower than the top end and the last 5 winners were rated between 114 and 119. Old Guard took this as a 4yo before going on to win The Greatwood Hurdle at the November meeting after, but didn’t make it through to that spring with a setback.
15:00 The Sharp Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) 2m½f
Cue Card, Dodging Bullets and Altior have landed this race as Novice Hurdlers, which is why this race is featured in more depth above.
15:35 Handicap Chase (Class 2) 2m
Calico etched himself as a two-time winner of this contest last season while retaining his crown, and this has been a contest to win in its own right rather than a pointer to March. That said, Fox Norton was narrowly denied in the same season’s Champion Chase after landing this in 2016 and another 6yo winner in Saint Calvados was a narrow runner-up in March too, in the Ryanair Chase the same season.
16:10 Novices’ Hurdle (Class 2) 2m4f
This race has been run over 2m4f for the last 5 years but previously was a 2m5½f contest and 2m5f up to 2015. Back in 2012 The New One took this race and he was that season’s Baring Bingham Novices’ Hurdle winner in March.
16:45 Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (0-125) (Class 3) 3m1f
No real Festival clues on show here, with the winners of this contest being a fair bit short of what it can take to win in March given it’s a 0-125 race.
RACE-BY-RACE: DAY 2 (SATURDAY)
13:10 Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3) 2m4f
Introduced in 2021 and we’re yet to have a winning favourite, but we’ve at least seen Ginny’s Destiny contest this race before a good second in the now removed Turners Novices’ Chase, although he was beaten out of sight in this, it’s worth noting.
13:45 Novices’ Hurdle (Class 2) 3m
There are some cracking horses who have landed this, with Wholestone back in 2016/17 placing best at The Festival, coming 3rd in the Albert Bartlett.
14:20 Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Class 2) 3m
A very early season Pertemps Final Qualifier which has been in place since 2009. Last year’s Pertemps Final winner Supremely West placed third in this race, although this hasn’t always been the best pointer to March. Buena Vista ran in this race in both seasons that he won the Final, but finished 8th and 7th respectively back in 2009 and 2010.
14:55 Handicap Chase (Class 2) 3m1f
An exciting early season staying handicap chase which hasn’t had a winning favourite since 2013, which was Balthazar King landing the race for the third successive year.
15:30 Masterson Holdings Hurdle (Class 2) 2m½f
This 4yo hurdle has attracted some very special talents over the years, with Tiger Roll and Dodging Bullets on the honour roll, and the last 14 winners have all come from the top 3 in the betting, so it’s been punter-friendly too.
16:05 Novices’ Chase (Class 2) 3m1f
As highlighted in the trends piece above, this is a race with recent history in throwing up Festival winners.
16:40 National Hunt Flat Race (Class 2) 2m½f
There won’t be much form on offer for most runners in here, but it’s well worth respecting the winner given Moon Racer took this before his next effort was winning the Champion Bumper back in 2014/15. You’ve got long-term prospects in here too, with the likes of I Am Maximus and Imperial Commander going on to big race success in the Grand National and Gold Cup!
Commercial notice: This article on GG.co.uk contains affiliate links. The offers we promote come from operators that we trust and our experts have first-hand experience dealing with. If you open an account through one of these affiliate links then GG will earn revenue. However, we ensure that the money earned goes back into improving and enhancing our coverage of horse racing and other sports, as we look to provide an excellent service to our growing audience.