If you want to win a hurdle race at Chepstow, it pays to be in front. That is the clear message from every hurdle run at the Welsh track between January 2025 and April 2026, and it is worth bearing in mind with the Welsh Racing Festival getting underway on Friday to set the stage for the National Hunt .
We have gone through all 97 hurdle races and 915 runners in that period, classifying each horse by how it was ridden from the in-running comments. The results are striking. But before anyone rushes to back the pace angle blind this weekend, last year’s festival tells a slightly different story.
Front-runners rule over hurdles at Chepstow
Horses who led made up just 12% of hurdle runners at Chepstow, yet they supplied 34% of the winners. 33 of the 107 front-runners won, which is almost one in three, and more than half of them finished in the first three. That gives leaders an Impact Value of 2.91, meaning they won almost three times as often as their numbers alone would suggest.
It is not just the trailblazers either. Combine those who led with those who raced prominently and you have 42% of the runners producing 67% of the winners. In other words, two in every three Chepstow hurdles over that 16-month period went to a horse who was on or close to the pace.
The flip side is stark, with hold-up horses accounting for a third of all runners but only 15 winners from 304 runners, a strike rate of just 4.9% and an Impact Value of 0.47. Mid-division runners did little better, with 17 winners from 218. Coming from off the pace at Chepstow has been a tough ask.
Even better for punters, the market has not fully cottoned on. Front-runners won more often than their starting prices implied, while the hold-up brigade badly underperformed their odds.
Where the bias bites hardest
The edge is sharpest over the shorter trips. In hurdles over 2m to 2m3f, leaders won 29 of their 84 starts, a 34.5% strike rate, with an Impact Value of 3.33. That covers all three of this weekend’s feature hurdles.
Leaders won 23 of 54 non-handicap hurdles, a strike rate of 42.6%, and 74% of them made the frame. This makes non-handicap hurdles the most extreme when it comes to the pace bias in front-runners’ favour. Meanwhile, just four of the 137 hold-up horses in those races managed to win. With the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle a conditions race, that is a stat worth remembering.
Handicaps are a little more forgiving: leaders still won at an Impact Value of 1.83 and prominent racers at 1.16, but hold-up horses fared better than in other races, winning 11 from 167. That matters for the Welsh Champion Hurdle and the Silver Trophy, both of which are big-field handicaps.
Last year’s festival was a different story
The 12 hurdles at the 2025 Welsh Racing Festival, staged on 10 to 12 October, did not follow the pattern nearly so neatly.
Front-runners still had their say, winning three of their 13 starts, but that strike rate of 23% fell well short of the 32% they managed at other Chepstow meetings. More tellingly, the ten leaders who did not win all finished outside the first three. Away from the festival, leaders placed 60% of the time.
Hold-up horses, meanwhile, enjoyed a far better weekend. They won four of the 12 hurdles, a third of the winners, compared with just 13% at other meetings. Their strike rate more than doubled, from 4.2% to 9.8%, and their Impact Value jumped from 0.39 to 1.07. The two biggest hurdles of the meeting both went to horses ridden with restraint. Sticktotheplan came from behind to land the Persian War at 15/2, and Rambo T did likewise in the Silver Trophy at 12/1. Gibbs Island also won the four-year-old hurdle having been held up.
The front-runners who did win at the festival were mostly short-priced. Masked Man led to win a novice hurdle at 7/4, juvenile Ammes was sent off 8/13 and mare Settle Down Jill won a five-runner novice at Evens.
There is an important caveat. 12 races is a small sample, and the ground was good for all but one of them. Quicker autumn ground and a strong pace in the feature handicaps may well have played into the hold-up horses’ hands.
What it means for the weekend
Several of last year’s festival winners are back for more. Rambo T and Masked Man are both among the Silver Trophy confirmations, while Gibbs Island takes his chance in the Welsh Champion Hurdle. You can read more about the fields in our Welsh Champion Hurdle, Persian War and Silver Trophy confirmations.
Beyond last year’s winners, the running styles of several other contenders could be worth bearing in mind.
Front-runners to note
Pioneer Pete is entered in all three feature hurdles, and the pace data could help decide where he goes. Jonjo and AJ O’Neill’s six-year-old has done his winning from the front, making all at Stratford last month and leading for his wins at Worcester and Wetherby. He fits the Chepstow profile perfectly.
Meanwhile, Just A Glance already knows how to win here from the front. She made all to win easily at Chepstow in March and is among the Silver Trophy confirmations.
Prominent racers to note
The Welsh Champion Hurdle co-favourites both like to race handily. Captain Hugo led for much of the way in a novice hurdle at Aintree last season and raced prominently when winning at Newbury, while Le Beau Madrik made the running when signing off with victory at Haydock in April.
In the Persian War, Cosmic Connection chased home an easy winner on his first visit to Chepstow before winning here next time, and he raced close to the pace when landing the Novices’ Championship Final at Sandown. In the Silver Trophy, Daylatedollarshort has pressed the leaders in his recent wins at Wetherby.
Hold-up horses with a question to answer
The most interesting case is Persian War joint-favourite Lord Byron. Faye Bramley’s four-year-old has done his best work from the rear, finishing fifth in the Triumph Hurdle, fourth in the Mersey and second in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle at Punchestown having been held up each time. Between January 2025 and April 2026, just four of the 137 hold-up horses in Chepstow’s non-handicap hurdles have won. He has more than enough ability to buck that trend, but it is a stat worth bearing in mind.
In the Silver Trophy, topweight Take No Chances was held up and finished sixth in the race 12 months ago, while Moon Chime was ninth in the same race after being ridden from towards the rear. Both are back. Then again, last year’s festival showed that hold-up horses can thrive in the big handicaps, so it may all come down to how strongly the pace is set.
Data covers every hurdle runner at Chepstow from January 2025 to April 2026, excluding abandoned races. Run style is taken from in-running comments, with six unclassifiable hurdle runners excluded. Impact Value is share of winners divided by share of runners: above 1.0 means a run style wins more than its share.
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