Aidan O’Brien has two of his best three-year-olds lined up for Champions Day at Ascot on Saturday, but he is still deciding where to run them. Constitution River has been supplemented for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over a mile, and both he and Gstaad are also entered in the Champion Stakes over a mile and a quarter. Switching them would mean a drop in trip for the French Derby winner and a step up for the Irish 2,000 Guineas hero.
“We haven’t really decided which way yet, but they could go different ways than they have been racing all year,” O’Brien said at Naas on Sunday. “Both of them are in good shape anyway.” With the Ballydoyle trainer chasing Andrew Balding in the British trainers’ championship, a lot rides on the decision. Here is everything you need to know about the pair before Saturday.
Constitution River: the case for a mile
Constitution River looked the best middle-distance three-year-old in Europe in the first half of the season. He won the Dee Stakes at Chester, the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly and the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown, where he went clear over a furlong out under Ryan Moore. However, he has been beaten twice since, finishing third, beaten three-and-a-half lengths, in the Juddmonte International at York, and then third again in the Irish Champion Stakes, when he led over a furlong out but was headed inside the final 100 yards.
Those last two runs suggest he is not quite seeing out a mile and a quarter against the very best. He has never raced over a mile, but he won two of his three starts at seven furlongs as a juvenile, including the Tom Cooper Stakes at the Curragh, so speed should not be an issue. He was quoted at 4/1 for the QEII on Monday and 12/1 for the Champion Stakes.
Gstaad: the case for a mile and a quarter
Gstaad is a remarkably consistent colt, but he keeps finding one too good. He has won the Coventry Stakes, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and the Irish 2,000 Guineas, yet he has also finished second in six Group 1s. Two of those came against Bow Echo, who beat him by a short head in the St James’s Palace Stakes and by half a length in the Sussex Stakes. He was then only third as an odds-on favourite in the Prix du Moulin last time out.
The way he finishes his races is the main argument for stepping up. At Royal Ascot, he was outpaced over a furlong out before rallying strongly to just fail, and an extra quarter-mile could suit that style. His pedigree is a concern though. He is by champion sprinter Starspangledbanner out of an Exceed And Excel mare, which hardly screams ten furlongs, and he has never raced beyond a mile. He was quoted at 8/1 for the Champion Stakes on Monday and 10/1 for the QEII.
Which way should they go?
Constitution River has the stronger Group 1 form of the pair, and a strongly run mile at Ascot could bring out the speed he showed at two. He would also avoid Calandagan, Ombudsman and Bay City Roller, who look the strongest trio in the Champion Stakes. In the QEII, the main dangers are the supplemented Talk Of New York and French Classic winner Rayif, as covered in our QEII runners guide.
Gstaad’s move is the bigger gamble. He has run to a consistently high level at a mile without winning since May, so a change of trip is understandable. However, the Champion Stakes is the deeper race, and he would be taking on proven ten-furlong performers with a pedigree that points to a mile being his limit. If O’Brien only switches one and decides to load up in one contest, Constitution River looks the more logical candidate to move.
O’Brien and Moore on Champions Day
Champions Day has not been as fruitful for Ballydoyle as you might expect. O’Brien has had ten winners from 103 runners on the card since it was first run in 2011, a 9.7% strike rate. His record in these two races is thinner still. Since 2011, Excelebration (2012) and Minding (2016) are his only QEII winners from 20 runners, and Magical in 2019 is his only Champion Stakes winner from 21.
Moore’s Champion Stakes record is even more striking. He is yet to win it in 11 attempts since it moved to Ascot, finishing second on So You Think in 2011 and on Found in both 2015 and 2016, while Minding is his only QEII success. That is not down to Ascot itself, though. Since 2021, the pair have teamed up for 29 winners from 154 runners at the track, a strike rate of 18.8%, including 21 at Royal Ascot.
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