Moving into the colder months means that the jumps will soon be back proper, and the passion I have for this sphere comes predominantly from the predictability of it. That’s not to say I can tell you everything that will happen specifically, or that I’ll give you the winners of all the big races, but I do enjoy making a few predictions, especially ahead of the Cheltenham Festival.
Looking ahead to the next six months or so, it helps to make a few observations and hold some expectations. Sometimes it’s better to be wrong, because that means things are changing, but you need to know what you expect before you can know if what happens is unexpected.
- EXPECT THE CURRENT HORSE THEY TELL YOU WILL WIN AT CHELTENHAM TO LOSE
I’m a huge advocate of ante-post punting on the Cheltenham Festival, and given the knowledge-sharing capabilities of social media, forums and more Cheltenham previews than you can shake a stick at, it’s certainly not too difficult to find out who ‘the right people’ are backing.
Unfortunately, the bookmakers have access to just as much of this information, and therefore some plunges on horses can be immaterial because it doesn’t always take money to move markets.
Now, the support for runners for big Festival targets is certainly worth noting, but every single ante-post favourite at this time last year for the Grade 1s at Cheltenham did NOT win that race. Of course, this is merely looking at the favourite rather than the fancied, hyped or talked-about horses, but you see the point I’m trying to make.
Plenty of good judges and solid information can point to horses at much bigger prices than they’ll go off at, so there is still value to be had. But on that, just know everything has its own probability, and more often than not, the horse that you’re backing ante-post will be beaten.
- EXPECT DAN SKELTON TO BE MILES THE BEST OF BRITISH
This might sound like an obvious statement given he’s the reigning champion trainer, but Dan Skelton is only just getting started, and the lack of any real threat elsewhere is only going to widen the gap I believe he’s built the foundations for.
He made further history last season by becoming the first trainer to saddle a winner at every jumps track in the same season.
Dan had twice fallen just short when Willie Mullins took both the 2023/24 and 2024/25 British trainers’ titles, becoming the first name other than Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson on the honours roll in almost 20 years! Before the Nicholls era, it was Martin Pipe who dominated for over 15 years, and I believe we’re firmly in the Dan Skelton era now. That has to be exciting, with the prospect of the Brits taking back some of the Irish dominance that’s been on these shores for far too long.
He’s been the model of consistency throughout his training career, with an average A/E (actual vs expected) of 0.88 and only one year falling outside the 0.84–0.95 range. Curiously, he’s not profitable to back blind, but his losing ROI is consistent, and laying all his runners returns just 0.03%, which shows just how remarkably balanced he is year after year.
A large part of his success has been attributed to his brother, Harry Skelton, which is fair and valid. But looking at Harry’s performances for the yard over the years alongside all the other jockeys paints a similarly consistent pattern for both groups, which reiterates what a model of consistency Dan Skelton is.
- KING RASKO GREY IS THE MOST LIKELY FLOP THIS SEASON
King Rasko Grey was a good winner of the Turners Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham after a solid season over hurdles, and was surprisingly sent off at 11/1 in March despite being Closutton’s first string, according to Paul Townend.
He got the job done but didn’t exude the typical wow factor that sometimes comes with the winner of this race. Many horses drop back to become phenomenal two-milers, but despite an illustrious honours roll (shown below), it’s been a bit of a graveyard for future prospects in their next season. While between 2010 and 2016 we had three subsequent Festival winners and three places, we’ve only seen Bob Olinger as a fortunate winner since then.
The contrasting comments about King Rasko Grey, and the option of being a champion hurdler or a ready-made chaser, create enough doubt that, on balance, he’s more likely to underwhelm than kick on as a six-year-old turning seven, but I’m happy to be proved wrong.
· 2025 The New Lion 3rd
· 2024 Ballyburn 5th
· 2023 Impaire Et Passe (No run)
· 2022 Sir Gerard 9th
· 2021 Bob Olinger 1st
· 2020 Envoi Allen Fell
· 2019 City Island PU
· 2018 Samcro (No run)
· 2017 Willoughby Court (No run)
· 2016 Yorkhill 1st
· 2015 Windsor Park (No run)
· 2014 Faugheen 1st
· 2013 The New One 3rd
· 2012 Simonsig 1st
· 2011 First Lieutenant 2nd
· 2010 Peddlers Cross 2nd
· 2009 Mikael D’Haguenet (No run)
· 2008 Fiveforthree (No run)
· 2007 Massini’s Maguire (No run)
· 2006 Nicanor (No run)
· 2005 No Refuge (No run)
· 2004 Fundamentalist (No run)
· 2003 Hardy Eustace 1st
· 2002 Galileo 7th
- PAUL NICHOLLS TO HAVE AN EVEN HARDER TIME THIS SEASON
Starting from the first year proper in 2011/12, Paul Nicholls went eight seasons in a row securing triple-figure winners, and even in 2019/20, when he only managed 96, he still secured a strike rate above 20% (like all the seasons prior). He then went on another four-season run of between 132 and 176 winners, with his strike rates in the mid-20s.
However, his last two complete seasons have seen him secure sub-100 winners twice in a row, and both seasons’ strike rates were below 20%. He’s now lost Harry Cobden as stable jockey to his new role as JP McManus’ number one, which means Paul Nicholls is clearly going to be up against it. His current 2026 Q3 strike rate is still in the lower band of his normal range, but it’s 23% this year compared to 35% and 38% for the last two years.
- WILLIE MULLINS MIGHT FIND IT HARD TO DOMINATE THE CHASE SCENE
Willie Mullins has won it all, and last season at Cheltenham he took five of the six non-handicap chases, only missing out on the Ryanair. Fact To File would have been a likely winner had it not been for his withdrawal due to unsuitably quick ground, which shows the reality of Willie’s dominance.
It took him longest to land the Champion Chase and Gold Cup, although since the breakthroughs in 2022 and 2019 respectively, he’s won three of the five Champion Chases and five of the eight Gold Cups. He houses the only six horses who ended last season with an OR of 170 or higher and has the ante-post favourite for all three championship chases at the Cheltenham Festival at the time of writing.
Now clearly, it would take a brave man to predict that Willie Mullins won’t win an open chase at the Cheltenham Festival, especially after Gaelic Warrior and Il Etait Temps dominated their respective races last season, and both those horses are only turning nine in the new year. It’s hard to go back to the well, though. Both those horses were raced as juveniles, whereas his back-to-back winners of those championship races were Energumene (one hurdles run), Al Boum Photo (five) and Galopin Des Champs (six).
Bring the Ryanair Chase into the equation and you have two-time winner Allaho, who was raced five times over hurdles but not as a four-year-old for Closutton. This adds further weight to how tough it is to land more than one open chase, and more so if you’re an experienced hurdler before chasing.
Willie Mullins didn’t have a horse placed in the Supreme last season for the first time since 2020, which doesn’t bode well for his Arkle credentials, and he also didn’t have a placed horse in the Albert Bartlett for the first time since 2023. While he won another Triumph Hurdle, it was similar to 2025, when a big-priced runner took the spoils who may also struggle to step forward into open company or as a novice chaser.
Clearly, there is no better trainer than Willie Mullins, but if he’s to have a year where the chase races (especially at Cheltenham) are low in terms of winners, I think this could be it. Taking this view early enough in the season could help find some value against his stable, while allowing enough time to pass to admit I was wrong and revisit my view heading into the spring.