It’s the first Group 1 race of the new season for the Fillies, as the 1000 Guineas is the feature contest for Sunday at Newmarket, a race that has a steep 200-year history since it began in 1814. Plenty of smart horses have won this in the past, but there are a few trends for you to keep an eye on heading into this race on Sunday.
Twenty runners go to post, with Dermot Weld’s runner Tahiyra currently heading the betting. Can she give her trainer a first win in the race?
GG Editor Jake Russell is on hand to guide us through some of the key trends in recent years, before talking us through the key runners and giving his expert verdict on who he’s backing to come out on top.
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Odds correct at time of posting – 2pm Friday 5th May
Key Trends
Last five winners:
- 2022 – CACHET (16/1 – George Boughey + James Doyle)
- 2021 – MOTHER EARTH (10/1 – Aidan O’Brien + Frankie Dettori)
- 2020 – LOVE (4/1 – Aidan O’Brien + Ryan Moore)
- 2019 – HERMOSA (14/1 Aidan O’Brien + Wayne Lordan)
- 2018 – BILLESDON BROOK (66/1 – Richard Hannon + Sean Levey)
Watch Cachet win last years race ⬇
Previous Winners Price – 1 out of the last 12 winners have been favourites, 4 out of the last 12 were in the top 3 of the market.
Previous Course Form – 9 of the last 12 winners have ran at least once at Newmarket previously, 4 out of 12 had at least one previous win at Newmarket.
Previous Distance Form – 12 out of the last 12 winners have had at least one run over 8 furlongs, 4 out of the last 12 winners had won over 8 furlongs.
Ratings – 10 out of the last 12 winners had a rating of 106 or higher.
Group Wins – 9 out of the last 12 winners had at least one Group win.
Season Form – 7 out of the last 12 winners had at least one run that season, 3 out of the last 12 winners had won once that season.
Key Runners
Tahiyra (Dermot Weld) – 5/2
Quite possibly one of the most exciting horses heading into this season, which seems strange considering she has only had the two career runs, but it was her last performance that really caught everyone’s attention. She lined up in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes at The Curragh with just one previous start to her name, and she absolutely blew away the field, beating the very talented Meditate by just over 2 lengths, who was no match for her that day. It has been a bit touch and go on whether she would be lining up at Newmarket for this or go straight to the Irish equivalent, but it looks as if we get to see her out on Sunday. Just having the two runs to her name might not be in her favour, as the more experienced horses seem to win this contest, and the recent favourites record in the race doesn’t make for good reading. But, she does look to have the world at her feet and is a very talented horse, and quite exciting for the season ahead.
Meditate (Aidan O’Brien) – 4/1
One of the more experienced horses at the top end of the market, she is trained by a master of this race, who has won this race five out of the last ten renewals, very similar to the 2000 Guineas. There were big question marks surrounding the mile trip for this horse, but she soon put those queries to bed when winning the Group 1 Juvenile Fillies event at the Breeders Cup last November, taking the step up to the mile firmly in her stride, arguably looking a better horse. She mixed it up with some of the best 2yo’s last season and looked all class when landing the Albany at Royal Ascot last June. She is an uncomplicated sort who is very much firmly in the reckoning for this race, and given Aidan O’Briens recent record in the race, she might be worth backing alone based on that. But, she would have to have trained on better than Tahiyra, who firmly put her in her place last season. Mediate is a fascinating prospect in this, and no matter the outcome of the race on Sunday, she will be winning races again this season.
Mammas Girl (Richard Hannon) – 6/1
The best of the British runners, and like Tahiyra she is very lightly raced, but unlike her she has already had the one start this season. That run came over this course in the Nell Gwyn, an excellent trial for the 1000 Guineas. She beat some decent horse that day in the Nell Gwyn and has looked to have trained on nicely from 2 to 3, which could be down to the fact she was lightly campaigned as a two-year-old. She has course form (both of her career runs have been at Newmarket) and she hails from a trainer who won this with a big priced winner back in 2018, so the yard knows what they are doing when it comes to this race.
I think the recent course form will hold her in high stead, but she would have needed to improve a little more since her last run, but that is very much possible given her connections. She’s an interesting runner, and no doubt will come on even better with each run this season.
Remarquee (Ralph Beckett) – 7/1
Trainer Ralph Beckett is as shrewd as they come in training fillies, no matter whether they are a sprinter, miler, middle distancer or stayer, he knows the time and day when it comes to fillies. It looks like he might have quite a good one on his hands here. Again like a few of these at the top end of the market, she is lightly raced, only running the once as a two-year-old, where it was a winning debut at Salisbury, she then went on to confirm the promise and land the Fred Darling Stakes at Newbury a few weekends back. She was keen throughout the race, but that didn’t particularly do any damage in terms of the race, and jockey Rob Hornby did drop his stick late on, which probably played into their strengths, as that allowed her to coast home. She would need to eliminate that greenness out of her running style to land a classic of this nature, but she is clearly talented, and connections think she is good enough to win this.
Like Mammas Girl, she used one of the trial races to full effect, meaning she has race fitness on her side, which can very much be a good thing when it comes to the Guineas, which Cachet showed last season when winning this race. I think Remarquee is a fascinating runner, and clearly very talented at that.
Outsiders To Note
Mawj (Saeed Bin Suroor) – 12/1
A horse that probably doesn’t fit the 1000 Guineas mould, having run twice already this year, both of them coming in Meydan. She was quite useful as a two-year-old, winning a Group 2 contest on the July Course at Newmarket before going on to place in some decent contest. She already has some form at 1-mile, when smashing the field in Meydan in February, beating Fairy Cross by just under 9 lengths. A really taking performance and she has clearly trained on well, with three time Champion Jockey Oisin Murphy booked for the ride, that is a huge bonus for anyone willing to back her in this. It’s clear to see she is quite talented, but has she hit her ceiling before others, who might improve past her.
Lezoo (Ralph Beckett) – 12/1
Again, trained by the master of the fillies, Lezoo has a very interesting profile heading into this contest. She was only running at the 6-furlong trip last season, but was a Listed, Group 3 and Group 1 winner, with the latter being her most impressive performance to date, where she won the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes at Newmarket, beating Meditate by just under a length. That is a decent piece of form, given how short in the market Meditate is, but there will be a few question marks surrounding stepping up to the Mile trip for Lezoo, and looking at her breeding with previous horses it might be a little issue for her over this trip, especially in a classic. But, given her running style she will give it a good go, and the magic hands of Frankie Dettori will keep her in check as he looks to land potentially one of the final Classic races of his career.
Polly Pott (Ben Pauling) – 50/1
A little shout out to this horse who was trained by Harry Dunlop last season, and is now with Ben Pauling. She has some decent form behind her, better than some of the other runners ahead of her in the market, with a nice win in the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster, which was over 1-mile. We know this sort of trip really benefits her, and considering the margin suggests she was well beaten in the Fillies Mile last October, that was an unlucky run where she didn’t exactly start well but was running on in the closing stages. I don’t think she deserves to be the price she is, but it is understandable as she isn’t trained or owned by the “fashionable” connections. She is clearly talented and isn’t that far away from some of the marker leaders on ratings, and I could see her going well given her huge price. And as we all know, shocks can happen in this race, just look at Billesdon Brook a few years back.
Verdict
Again, like my 2000 Guineas write up, the favourite could just be too good for these, but given the fact she hasn’t been exactly confirmed for this race a while out could mean issues at home with training, or it could really be down to the connections worrying about the ground etc, but that we don’t know. It really wouldn’t surprise me at all should she go and win this contest, given the recent favourite record in the race is not great.
That being said I think Meditate‘s performance at the Breeders Cup last season is a real eye catcher and I feel she took many by surprise that day, she took the step up to a mile firmly in her stride, and Aidan O’Brien more than knows how to get his horses ready for this. She improved with each passing run last year, and I’m a real fan of hers. Hopefully this isn’t just heart ruling over my head, but I really do think she will go well on Sunday, everything is very much in her favour.
Polly Pott at 66/1 as well is quite tempting and she is far too big price wise to ignore, she is a Group 2 winner with form over the mile trip and was unlucky in a Group 1 in her last start as a two-year-old. She towers above some of horses above her on ratings, and she really shouldn’t be that sort of price given she was a big improver last year.
SELECTIONS
- MEDITATE (4/1 generally) WIN
- POLLY POTT (66/1 generally) E/W – Skybet offering FIVE places
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