The Qipco 1000 Guineas takes place at Newmarket on Sunday afternoon, and on paper, this looks like a belting edition of the second British Classic of 2022. With 14 runners set to go to post, and many factors to consider, our trends expert has delved through some of the recent renewals of the 1000 Guineas – producing their in-depth trends which include a trends verdict. Check this out alongside an exclusive offer from Paddy Power, who are offering new customers an excellent sign-up bonus of £45 In Free Bets, when they place a single £10 bet on racing.
Qipco 1000 Guineas Stakes (Newmarket, 3:40pm, Sunday May 1st)
Last Ten Winners
2021 – Mother Earth (Aidan O’Brien, Frankie Dettori) 10/1
2020 – Love (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 4/1
2019 – Hermosa (Aidan O’Brien, Wayne Lordan) 14/1
2018 – Billesdon Brook (Richard Hannon, Sean Levey) 66/1
2017 – Winter (Aidan O’Brien, Wayne Lordan) 9/1
2016 – Minding (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 11/10F
2015 – Legatissimo (David Wachman, Ryan Moore) 13/2
2014 – Miss France (Andre Fabre, Maxime Guyon) 7/1
2013 – Sky Lantern (Richard Hannon Snr, Richard Hughes) 9/1
2012 – Homecoming Queen (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 25/1
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Key Trends
Form: Top 3 Finish Last Time Out (8/10) Winner Last Time Out 3/10
Out of form horses don’t tend to fare well in the 1000 Guineas, with eight of the last ten winners coming into the race on the back of a top-three finish. Surprisingly, however, only three of the last ten had won last time out, those being Homecoming Queen (2012), Legatissimo (2015) and Minding (2016). Mise En Scene was only tenth last time out and therefore has the top-three last time out trend to buck.
Rating: Officially Rated 106-112 (8/10) 109 Average Official Winning Rating
Interestingly, eight of the last ten winners of the 1000 Guineas held an official rating of between 106 to 112. The two exceptions to this are the 120-rated Minding (2016) and the 99-rated Billesdon Brook (2018). The average official rating of a 1000 Guineas winner in the last ten renewals is 109, slap bang in the middle of the 106-112 bracket. Rated just 98, Juncture appears to have work to do on ratings.
Experience: Had 4 Or More Runs (10/10) Average 7 Runs Last Ten Years
Experience has played a far greater part for recent 1000 Guineas winners than in the colts’ equivalent, with all of the last ten winners having raced four or more times prior to their victories. The average amount of runs prior to a 1000 Guineas win has been 7, albeit this is a little skewed courtesy of the 13-raced Homecoming Queen’s 2012 win. Both Aidan O’Brien runners Tenebrism and Tuesday are only twice raced and therefore fall short on the four runs trend.
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Class: Previous Group Winner (8/10) Previous Group 1 Winner 3/10
Group form has proven a good identifier of 1000 Guineas winners in recent years, with eight of the last ten winners having won a Group race previously. The exceptions to this were Legatissimo (2015) and Winter (2017). Somewhat surprisingly, however, only three of the last ten winners were already successful at the top level. Ameynah has only taken a maiden so far and therefore lacks the Group form.
Pedigree: Dam Had Raced Over A Mile Or Further (8/10) Winner Over A Mile Or Further (4/10)
Pedigrees are often key to finding 1000 Guineas winners, and specifically the dam’s side. Eight of the last ten winners were out of horses that had raced over a mile or further, and of that group, four had won over a mile or further. Discoveries is out of an unraced dam and therefore falls short on this trend.
Days Since Last Run: Making Seasonal Reappearance (4/10) Average Break Of 203 Days
Fresh horses have dominated in the 2000 Guineas in recent renewals, but in the 1000 Guineas, there has been a far greater spread. Four of the last ten winners were making their seasonal reappearance, including the last three, but six had already raced that season, so no firm conclusions can be made. Of those to have arrived making their seasonal debut, the average break is 203 days.
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Headgear: Wore Headgear (0/10) Horses That Wore Headgear Are 0-11 In Last Ten Renewals
Horses that wore headgear don’t have a good record in the 1000 Guineas recently with none of the last ten winners fitted with headgear and horses that did during that period 0-11. This is a negative for the tongue-tie fitted Malavath, and Hello You, who wears a hood.
Draw: Drawn In Low 4 Or High 4 Stalls (6/10) Drawn Stall 8 Or Lower (8/10)
Being out on a wing has proven slightly beneficial in recent renewals of the 1000 Guineas with six of the last ten winners in either the low four or high four stalls. Those drawn low have a better record, with eight of the last ten coming out of stall 8 or lower, this includes last year’s winner Mother Earth, who was drawn in stall 2.
Running Style: 6/10 Raced Midfield Or Towards Rear Initially Made All 2/10
No real preference in regard to running style, with six of the last ten winners described as racing in midfield or towards the rear in the race. Interestingly there have been two winners make all in the 1000 Guineas recently, with Hermosa (2019) the last to do so.
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Trends Outcome
The last ten winners had all raced four times or more and this is a big trend for Aidan O’Brien’s twice-raced duo Tenebrism and Tuesday to overcome. The headgear wearing Malavath and Hello You are also dismissed considering that none of the last eleven was fitted with headgear and those that did are 0-11 in the last ten renewals.
There are three perfect trends fitters here in Wild Beauty, CACHET and Sandrine. The trio are out of dams that raced over a mile or further and are rated within the 106-112 threshold. All three horses are drawn in either the bottom four or top four stalls, but seeing as eight of the last ten were drawn in stall 8 or lower, Wild Beauty (14) and Sandrine (13) are tentatively scratched. Recent Group 3 scorer Cachet is the trends pick to provide George Boughey with a Classic success.
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