A Grade 2 over the intermediate trip which has struggled for numbers in recent years, drawing only two runners last year and just the four runners this year. It does include a couple of high class chasers though, with Nicky Henderson’s Shishkin set to go off a short priced favourite and aim to confirm the form with chief rival Pic D’Orhy on seasonal reappearance.
GG writer Dan Corbally previews this years race, before giving his verdict on who he expects to come out on top.
Take a look back at each of the last 10 winners of the race – which was your favourite performance?
Key Race Trends
- 9 of the last 12 winners have been between 7-9 years old
- 5 of the last 12 winners have won on their latest run before this race
- 12 of the last 12 winners have won over 2m3f+
- 11 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous chase runs, 12 out of 12 winners had at least 3 previous chase wins
- 5 of the last 12 winners had a run that season
Runner-By-Runner Guide
MINELLA DRAMA
(Donald McCain/Brian Hughes)
Had a surprise entry in the Betfair Chase at Haydock but this looks a much more suitable target. May have been a touch outclassed in the Betfair Chase and while he has plenty to find with Pic D’Orhy on their meetings, he has put in a career-best on his last two runs. The first of those two runs came at the end of the last season in the Grade 1 Marsh Chase at Aintree, behind Pic D’Orhy, with the latest also coming on Merseyside, when second in the Old Roan Chase. Lacks that extra class factor of others in here but his current well-being is assured and should any of the key players falter, he’ll be hoping to take a slice of this pot.
PIC D’ORHY
(Paul Nicholls/Harry Cobden)
Long considered high-class by Paul Nicholsl and really put it all together last season, landing three wins from four after wind surgery, including a Grade 1 success in the Marsh Chase at Aintree on his final run. Most of Paul Nicholls’ runners have needed/improved for their seasonal debut, while that tempers enthusiasm slightly what does worry is just how soundly he was beaten by Shishkin in the Ascot Chase this year. Hard to know on that evidence where he can find double digits lengths on that rival. He does like to go forward, but hard to envisage him getting into a burn up with Minella Drama, so he may just look to get a tow in and make his quality pay where he counts should Shishkin misfire.
SHISHKIN
(Nicky Henderson)
Rated 50/50 for the Betfair Chase last week by Nicky Henderson, the Seven Barrows handler has now pointed to this race as ‘99.9%’ most likely target. He finally got the step-up in trip he needed last season, culminating in a Grade 1 win in the Aintree Bowl over 3miles, having looked desperate for the staying trip at various points in the months previous. He jumped poorly in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham over this trip having previously won the Ascot Chase over course and distance, with Pic D’Orhy readily dispatched with in second. His jumping will need to be tidied up and he’ll need to be ready do himself justice from a fitness point of view but he’s bang up there with the best in terms of ability and he’ll be hard to stop if the right Shishkin turns up.
STRAW FAN JACK
(Sheila Lewis)
One for the grey lovers among us and although just short of what’s required at this level he has shown himself as an above average operator. He landed two wins in novice chases before a 50/1 fourth of nice in the Arkle (2m) at Cheltenham (beaten 28 lengths behind El Fabiolo, Jonbon & Saint Roi) before a low-key end to the season at Aintree. He was re-shod that day and made a very bad mistake two from home, finishing fourth of five in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase over 2m4f. Has point to point form at 3 miles but has shown his best form at 2 miles under rules, over both hurdles and fences. This is an uphill task on his first run of the season.
Big-Race Verdict
SHISHKIN (5/6) would be a very confident pick if he had a run under his belt but he still rates the informed percentage call. He’s swerved the Betfair Chase to come here and has the form in the book with nearest market rival, Pic D’Orhy, with that rival a long way behind when they last met. He looks to need further than this now, but a good pace is all but guaranteed with Minella Drama and Pic D’Orhy all inclined to bowl along at the head of proceedings. That scenario can leave it open for Shishkin’s superior stamina and ability to come into play where it matters, his fitness is taken on trust but he has won off the back of a lay-off in the past.
SELECTION: SHISHKIN (5/6)
*Odds Correct At Time Of Writing – 2pm Tuesday 21st November*
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