The first Classic of the season is upon us as the 2000 Guineas takes centre stake at Newmarket on Saturday, where we will see some of the very best two-year-olds from last season battle it out up the testing Rowley Mile. A race with a steep 200-year history, it is one of the main races that all connections in horse racing strive to win, especially so early on into the season, before going on to potentially bigger and better things for the season ahead.
Fourteen runners go to post, with A P O’Brien’s runner Auguste Rodin currently heading the betting. Can he give the master trainer a record 11th win in the race?
GG Editor Jake Russell is on hand to guide us through some of the key trends in recent years, before talking us through all 14 runners and giving his expert verdict on who he’s backing to come out on top.
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Odds correct at time of posting – 12.25pm Thursday 4th May
Key Trends
Last five winners:
- 2022 – COROEBUS (5/1 – Charlie Appleby + James Doyle)
- 2021 – POETIC FLARE (16/1 – Jim Bolger + Kevin Manning)
- 2020 – KAMEKO (10/1 – Andrew Balding + Oisin Murphy)
- 2019 – MAGNA GRECIA (11/2 – Aidan O’Brien + Donnacha O’Brien)
- 2018 – SAXON WARRIOR (3/1 – Aidan O’Brien + Donnacha O’Brien)
Watch Coroebus win last years race ⬇
Last run statistics – 10 of the last 12 winners of the race won on their last start – 9 out of 12 had their last run more than 189 days before.
Previous Course Form – 7 out of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Newmarket – With 4 of the last 12 winning at Newmarket .
Previous Distance Form – 7 of the last 12 winners have had at least one previous run over 8 furlongs – With 6 out of the last 12 having a win over 8 furlongs.
Group Wins – 11 out of the last 12 winners have had at least one win in any Group contest – With 8 out of the last 12 having a win at Group 1 level in their career.
Previous Trial Race Form – 4 out of the last 12 winners have won the Group 1 Futurity Trophy – 2 winners out of the last 12 have won the Dewhurst Stakes – 1 out of the last 12 winners have won the Greenham Stakes (2 have previous run in it and won the Guineas but the other only placed in the Greenham) Price – 5 of the last 12 winners were the SP favourite for the race – 8 out of the last 12 winners were priced in the top three of the market.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
Auguste Rodin (Aidan O’Brien) – 6/4
Aidan O’Brien has arguably the best winning record in the 2000 Guineas, the winning most trainer has won this contest just the ten times, including 5 of the last 10 renewals of the race. His current market leader is arguably the classiest horse in the race, who is absolutely flying at home according to his trainer and could be the one to complete the UK Triple Crown this year, this being the trainers view, it might be worth noting for the season ahead. He came on leaps and bounds last season, finishing 2nd on debut before going on to win his next three contests, including the Group 1 Futurity Stakes at Doncaster by just under 4 lengths, which has proven an excellent trial race for the 2000 Guineas. He is lacking the prep run for the season, but that wouldn’t particularly be an issue as many of the AOB previous winners have come into this race the same. As previously mentioned, he is the class angel in the race, but his price does look rather skinny at the moment. So that’s a chance you would have to be willing to take.
Little Big Bear (Aidan O’Brien) – 9/2
One of the more interesting runners in the contest, currently he is the highest rated in the field and does have some very decent form in behind him, including a Windsor Castle win at the Royal meeting, and the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes at The Curragh by seven lengths. He was campaigned over 5 and 6 furlongs last season, so does have the step up to 1-mile at Newmarket on his seasonal re-appearance, but judging by the pedigree he should be ok with this extra 2 furlongs. However, there is a difference between it being on paper and the horse doing it. His last run of the season last year was exceptional and probably a career best, with some very decent horses in behind him that day. That was in August last year, so does have a 290+ day layoff also, which is the most in the field. There is no doubting he is a quality horse, he just has to show it over this completely new trip. But we all know Aidan O’Brien is a master when it comes to this race, with the yard being well prepped for any top races at Newmarket.
Chaldean (Andrew Balding) – 11/2
Again, like most of these I suppose the 2020 winning trainer Andrew Balding has another interesting contestant in this race with the Dewhurst winner Chaldean. He’s an incredibly game horse, who seems to battle on very well in his races and seems to just do enough, which will set him in good stead stepping up to a mile. He went from strength-to-strength last season, ending it with a decent performance in the Group 1 Dewhurst at Newmarket, so he has the track form.
He didn’t exactly have the best prep run last time out at Newbury, when he unfortunately unseated Frankie Dettori coming out the gates, but you could say he had an easier run than he probably would have had he completed the race with the jockey on his back. He is well at home, and he some decent form in behind him, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all should he land this, with very capable connections behind him.
Sakheer (Roger Varian) – 7/1
One of the lighter run horses in the contest, he has had a few eyes drawn on him leading up to the 2000 Guineas, with just the three career runs in his two-year-old season last term. He came on well last year and was impressive when winning the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury last year. He beat Rousing Encore by just over 3 lengths that day, hardly even breaking a sweat coming up to the line.
He could be anything and looks well-bred to stay the 1-mile trip on paper, no matter the outcome of this race, he is an incredibly exciting prospect for the season ahead and could be the real big one the yard has been wanting for a while.
Royal Scotsman (Paul & Oliver Cole) – 8/1
Jim Crowley has been waxing lyrical about this horse for a while now, stating he is a real prospect this season for his three-year-old season, and he is excited to ride him in the 2000 Guineas. He ran on quite a few occasions last season, and he did run in some very decent contest, winning the Group 2 Richmond Stakes, before going on to come 5th in the Group 2 Gimcrack at York and coming a very good 2nd in the Group 1 Dewhurst for his last run of the season, which was probably a career best so far. He was contesting at sprinting trips last season, before going on to put in that career best run over 7 furlongs. He could play a part in this race, but he does possibly lack the class edge that some of these have.
Silver Knott (Charlie Appleby) – 12/1
It seems slightly strange to not have a Charlie Appleby and Godolphin horse higher up in the market, as they had the 1-2 last season with Coroebus and Native Trail, and Silver Knott seems to be the one to carry the torch for the yard. He was highly tried last season and won three of his six starts, which included an Autumn Stakes win and a very good 2nd at the Breeders Cup in November. He lacks the Group 1 form that some of the ones in the market have, but he does have 1-mile form to his name with the Autumn Stakes. He would have to improve slightly to land a 2000 Guineas, but he is in very capable hands.
Noble Style (Charlie Appleby) – 14/1
Seemingly the second string for Godolphin with James Doyle booked to ride, who won both Guineas races last season with Coroebus and Cachet. This horse is an interesting runner given his price. He is unbeaten in his career, with three wins in just three career starts, he finished last season off by winning the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes, with Marshman and Cold Case in behind that day (Both of those have won at Listed level since) so the form does hold some substance. He probably has to show he is good enough to mix it up at this sort of company, but he is lightly raced and could improve massively from 2 to 3. An intriguing runner for team Godolphin.
Indestructible (Karl Burke) – 20/1
A horse previously trained in Ireland as a two-year-old, who has finished runner-up to Chaldean on two occasions – in the Group 3 Acomb Stakes and Group 2 the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster last season. He did produce a career best last time out when winning the Craven Stakes at Newmarket on his first start of the season and for Karl Burke, beating The Foxes by just over a length. The form of that race could be questionable, but he did show last season he can mix it up with some of the best horses around, so at his current price he could be one to very much keep an eye on. Plus, that prep run at Newmarket over the mile could come up trumps for him, with most of these not having that to their names.
Holloway Boy (Karl Burke) – 25/1
A horse who produced a remarkable effort to win on racecourse debut in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot last season. He won that race by a length on the day and looked a real seasoned professional. He mixed it up in some very decent company last season, and has placed in every start since, including a 3rd place finish behind Auguste Rodin in the Futurity at Doncaster last year. He was beaten by just under 6 lengths but was running to the right late on in the race and did hang very badly. He was probably beaten at that stage, but maybe could have challenged for 2nd spot.
He is a consistent type who doesn’t know how to run a bad race, plus the booking of French Superstar jockey Christophe Soumillon is an excellent piece of business from connections. He needs to vastly improve to win this on seasonal re-appearance, but he has shown before he can produce a shock.
Dubai Mile (Charlie Johnston) – 33/1
Certainly, another very interesting runner heading into this, and a Group 1 winner already as a two-year-old last season in France over 1m2f on Heavy going. Maybe a further step up in trip later on the season will be in his favour, but he is a Group 1 winning horse who is quite a big price for this contest.
He is a typically tough Johnston horse and his performance in France last season was a brave one, where he was headed in the closing stages before running on well to win heading to the line. Danny Muscutt is having an excellent start to the season, and the all-weather champion jockey looks to have a nice ride in the 2000 Guineas. At the prices, he is intriguing, and you don’t get many Group 1 winners this low down in the market, but on the ratings does have a little bit to prove against some of these.
Charyn (Roger Varian) – 40/1
When this horse won on debut at Haydock last season he looked a really nice prospect, a professional type who could be a nice one for connections. And although he still remains to have that potential, after coming second in the Greenham Stakes last time out, beaten 3 lengths by Isaac Shelby, that form might have flattered him given the mishap with Chaldean unseating out the gates. He was a Group 2 winner in Chantilly last season but does have it all to do on ratings in this against some very well-bred types.
Flight Plan (Karl Burke) – 50/1
One the lower rated horses in the field and probably the third string for the yard, he does have it all to do on the ratings but was a winner as a two-year-old in a Newcastle Novice Stakes. He ran a cracking race in the Listed Burradon Stakes at Newcastle last time out, only beaten by a neck, which was at the start of last month. He looks most likely to be one for further on in the season in slightly calmer waters, with just two of his best careers runs so far coming on the all-weather surface.
Galeron (Charlie Hills) – 100/1
One of the lower down horses in the ratings, he was a winner as a two-year-old last season, when winning the Goffs Million at The Curragh. He finished 3rd in the Burradon Stakes at Newcastle last time out and does look to have a bit too much on his plate in this. One best watched, especially for the season ahead, with a big runner field pot landed already in his career, there could be more of these to come for him.
Hi Royal (Kevin Ryan) – 100/1
The lowest rated in the field with a rating of 91, that puts him 20 to 30 lbs below every other runner in this contest off level weights, although a winner last season he was a fairly well beaten fourth in a Conditions race at Newmarket last time out. He does very much look up against it in this contest.
Verdict
As previously mentioned, Auguste Rodin is mostly likely the best horse in the race, and given what his trainer has said about him recently, he is a very exciting horse for the season ahead as he hopefully goes for the UK Triple Crown (Guineas, Derby and St Leger winner), but his price is very short given he hasn’t had a run yet this year. There are a few others who could have improved past him, although that seems unlikely looking at it.
Little Big Bear could be a better horse at this sort of trip but does have to prove it. I don’t like going against the favourite for the sake of it, but there is one further down at a price I quite like, which is Dubai Mile.
Although he has it to prove on ratings, he is incredibly tough, and is already a Group 1 winner as a two-year-old, although on different conditions. He was second in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket on these sorts of conditions last season, and did look to lack the experience that day, putting it all together next time out beating some equally nice prospects at Saint-Cloud in Group 1 company. If he can get to the front end, he will battle it out and will be there or thereabouts come the finish, as we know he stays further than this. As I mentioned an even further step up in trip will most likely be his bag, but he is too big of a price given what he done last year. Battling qualities can be a nice thing to have in this sort of race, as Poetic Flare shown a few years back.
SELECTIONS
- AUGUSTE RODIN (6/4 generally) WIN
- DUBAI MILE (33/1 generally) E/W
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