The Qipco 2000 Guineas is the first Classic of 2022, and this weekend’s renewal promises to be as competitive as ever. With 15 runners set to go to post, and many factors to consider, our trends expert has delved through some of the recent renewals of the 2000 Guineas – producing their in-depth trends which include a big race verdict. Check this out alongside an exclusive offer from The Pools, who are providing £10 In Free Bets to new customers, when you join and bet £10.
Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes (Newmarket, 3:40pm, Saturday April 30th)
Last Ten Winners
2021 – Poetic Flare (Jim Bolger, Kevin Manning) 16/1
2020 – Kameko (Andrew Balding, Oisin Murphy) 10/1
2019 – Magna Grecia (Aidan O’Brien, Donnacha O’Brien) 11/2
2018 – Saxon Warrior (Aidan O’Brien, Donnacha O’Brien) 3/1
2017 – Churchill (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 6/4F
2016 – Galileo Gold (Hugo Palmer, Frankie Dettori) 14/1
2015 – Gleneagles (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 4/1F
2014 – Night Of Thunder (Richard Hannon, Kieren Fallon) 40/1
2013 – Dawn Approach (Jim Bolger, Kevin Manning) 11/8F
2012 – Camelot (Aidan O’Brien, Joseph O’Brien) 15/8F
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Key Trends
Form: Top 3 Finish Last Time Out (10/10) Winner Last Time Out 7/10
Form tends to come to the fore in the first British Classic of the season with the previous ten winners all having finished in the top 3 last time out. Narrowing this down further, seven of the last ten had won last time out. Point Lonsdale’s National Stakes second means he doesn’t come into this on the back of a win.
Rating: Officially Rated 109 Or Higher (10/10) 116 Average Official Winning Rating
Ratings can be difficult to weigh up with some judged on their juvenile efforts and others having an opportunity to race at 3. Even so, all of the last ten winners (including 40/1 shot Night Of Thunder) were officially rated 109 or higher at the time of victory, with 116 the average winning rating during this period. 108-rated Checkandchallenge falls short on this trend.
Experience: Had 3 Or More Runs (9/10) Average 4 Runs Last Ten Years
Nine of the last ten winners had raced at least three times prior to their 2000 Guineas victories, with the average in the past ten years being 4 runs prior to landing the race. Camelot was only twice raced when taking the prize in 2012. David Simcock’s Light Infantry has just the two runs to his name so far.
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Class: Previous Group Winner (9/10) Previous Group 1 Winner 7/10
Group form has proven a key trend in recent renewals of the Guineas with all but 40/1 outsider Night Of Thunder (2014) having won a Group race prior. Expanding on this, seven of the last ten were already Group 1 winners at the time, with Galileo Gold and last year’s winner Poetic Flare joining Night Of Thunder on the lack of Group 1 honours. Roger Varian’s Eydon is yet to win above Listed level, so has this trend to buck.
Pedigree: Dam Had Raced Over A Mile Or Further (9/10) Winner Over A Mile Or Further (2/10)
Pedigrees have proven a good guide for unearthing recent Guineas winners and looking into the dams shows that nine of the last ten had raced over a mile or further, with Churchill’s dam Meow racing exclusively at 5f. Perhaps interestingly, however, despite all but Meow racing over a mile plus, only two had actually won. Native Trail’s dam was unraced, so this would be a trend that he’d have to overcome.
Days Since Last Run: Making Seasonal Reappearance (8/10) Average Break Of 203 Days
Eight of the last ten 2000 Guineas winners were making their seasonal reappearance when landing the race. Those who had taken in a prep run were Night Of Thunder (2014) and Poetic Flare (2021). For those reappearing the average break is 203 days. Perfect Power ran in the Greenham a fortnight ago, so isn’t making his seasonal debut.
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Headgear: Wore Headgear (0/10) Horses That Wore Headgear Are 0-20 In Last Ten Renewals
None of the last ten 2000 Guineas winners wore headgear when landing the race, and those horses that did are 0-20 during that period (that includes the odds-on Air Force Blue in 2016). Only one horse is listed as carrying headgear on Saturday, with Dubawi Legend fitted with a first-time tongue-tie.
Draw: Drawn In Low 4 Or High 4 Stalls (7/10) Drawn Stall 9 Or Higher (5/10)
No real preference in regards to draw, with horses as low as stall 1 and as far out as 17 winning recent renewals of the Guineas. Being in the middle of the pack hasn’t proven particularly advantageous, however, with seven of the last ten winners drawn in either the lowest four stalls or the highest four stalls. Half of the last ten winners came out of stalls 9 or higher. Berkshire Shadow and Light Infantry are drawn in stalls 7 and 8 for this year’s 2000 Guineas.
Running Style: 9/10 Raced Midfield Or Better Raced Prominent Or Chased Leaders 5/10
Racing handily does tend to be an advantage in the 2000 Guineas with nine of the last ten winners coming from midfield or better. Five of the last ten were either described as racing prominently or chasing the leader/leaders, so hold up horses should be treated with caution. Berkshire Shadow is one entrant that tends to come from off the pace.
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Trends Outcome
All of the last ten winners have come out of horses that had raced, with nine of those contesting races at a mile plus, so this is a significant trend for Native Trail, out of the unraced Needleleaf, to overcome. Coroebus and Perfect Power both score highly in the trends, but both fall a little short with Coroebus yet to score at Group 1 level, which seven of the last ten winners had done, and Perfect Power coming into this on the back of a run, with only two of the last ten taking in a prep.
The only perfect trends hitter in the field is LUXEMBOURG, who won the Group 1 Vertem Futurity last time out, has had three runs, and is officially rated 115. Aidan O’Brien’s charge is making his seasonal reappearance and is drawn in stall 4, whilst at Doncaster, he raced midpack, a position connections will be hoping he can find himself in on Saturday. Luxembourg is the fifth foal out of Attire, who had eight races, including three over a mile, failing to win any of them, another surprisingly positive trend amongst recent 2000 Guineas winners.
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