The 2021 Cheltenham Festival is fast approaching and Andrew Mount has cast his eye over the Arkle and ponders the big question on the first day of the meeting. Can the banker Shishkin possibly get beaten?
Arkle Challenge Trophy Preview (Cheltenham, Tuesday 16 March)
KEY STATS – AGE
All of the last 20 winners were aged between five and eight, with six-year-olds (seven winners from 51 runners) showing a profit of £13.06 to a £1 level stake at SP.
RUNNING STYLE
Two of the last 20 winners made all, a further ten were prominent throughout and only eight (from 132 runners) were described as ‘held up’.
TRAINERS
Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have been responsible for four winners apiece this century, though backing their runners blind was not profitable (-£2.49 and -£5.25 respectively).
PREP RACE
Last-time-out winners were 16 from 109 for a small profit at SP (+£5.51). Those who prepped over hurdles or in a jumpers’ bumper were 0-20. Horse who last ran in handicap company were 0-14.
KEY CONTENDERS
SHISHKIN
Dominates the ante-post market and was priced at 8-11 with William Hill at the time of writing. Three from three over fences after his bloodless victories in small fields at Kempton (twice) and Doncaster, his full record under Rules now reads 1F111111 (7-8).
The track should hold no fears – he defied negative market vibes when narrowly landing the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at this meeting 12 months ago – and it’s only his price that’s offputting.
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ENERGUMENE
Point winner ENERGUMENE tasted defeat in a Navan bumper on his Rules debut bus is since unbeaten in four starts, including odds-on chase wins at Gowran Park and Navan. His final prep run is likely to come in the Leopardstown Arkle this Saturday (February 6) for which he’s quoted at around the 4-5 mark.
That will tell us a lot more, though he’s already clocked the fastest chase speed figure in the Arkle line-up according to Raceform.
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ENVOI ALLEN
Unbeaten in 11 career starts, didn’t exactly set the pulse racing when justifying cramped odds in Grade 3 company at Punchestown last time, a task made much simpler by the early departure of main market rival Asterion Forlonge.
Last year’s Ballymore winner looks much more likely to contest the Marsh Novices’ Chase over 2m4f on Thursday.
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ALLMANKIND
Exciting front-runner ALLMANKIND was disappointing in the Triumph last season but looks a better chaser than hurdler, bolting up at Warwick in November and seeing off Hitman and co in Grade 1 company at Sandown, despite jumping out to his left on the right-handed track. He looks a solid contender.
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FRANCO DE PORT
FRANCO DE PORT reportedly ran too freely when pulling up in the Coral Cup last season (10-1) and has been kept to shorter trips over fences, winning well at Thurles (2m2f) and pulling clear from Darver Star for an 8-1 success in the Grade 1 Racing Post Novice Chase at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. He could take on stablemate Energumene at Leoaprdstown on Saturday, though he also has an option over 2m5f on Sunday where he’d face another odds-on stablemate in the shape of Monkfish.
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ALLART
Nicky Henderson’s ALLART fell in a Grade 2 over 2m4f at Haydock last time (10-11f) and is likely to contest the Scilly Isles at Sandown on Saturday. His jumping sometimes let him down over hurdles and he’s hard to recommend at this stage.
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CAPTAIN GUINNESS
CAPTAIN GUINNESS was found to be clinically abnormal when an odds-on flop on his chase debut at Tipperary in October and won well at Punchestown next time. He had no answer to Energumene at Naas last time and he needs a big run at the Dublin Racing Festival to enter the Arkle picture.
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HITMAN
HITMAN bolted up in the Ffos Las mud on his chase debut and was far from disgraced behind Allmankind at Sandown last time. At the time of writing he was trading at around 5-2 for the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase (due to be run at Sandown on February 6) and a win there would put him on the Cheltenham shortlist.
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MALYSTIC
MALYSTIC was an impressive winner at Wetherby on his second chase outing and followed up at Newcastle, albeit in novice handicap company. His record left-handed stands at 1102113 (4-7), with the ‘duck egg’ when 50-1 for a Grade 2 bumper. That was his only Graded run, suggesting he might lack the class for this, but he’s clocked some good times in his career and his prominent running style will be an asset.
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ARKLE CHASE BIG-RACE VERDICT
Early pace has often been the key too Arkle success and previous surprise winners like Western Warhorse (33-1 in 2014) and Put The Kettle On (16-1 last year) were on the front end throughout.
SHISHKIN hasn’t had a lot to beat in his three chase runs but has clocked fast times the last twice and his jumping has been foot perfect. A big field/strong pace scenario could bring about further improvement.
Energumene is an obvious threat, though Allmankind’s attacking style makes him appealing from an each-way or ‘without the favourite’ perspective. At a massive price, Peter Niven’s Malystic is not without hope.
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