The next big race preview from the 2021 Cheltenham Festival, is the Brown’s Advisory and Merriebelle Plate, won last year by Simply The Betts. Our top tipster Daryl Carter takes us through the key stats and trends of the race, before taking a look at each of the main contenders and picking out his ante-post selection for the contest.
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BROWNS ADVISORY OVERVIEW
Irish trained have won three of the last five
The last four winners were novice chasers.
Last 6 were making their Festival debut.
Last nine winners aged six to nine years
None of the last seven, more than 11 previous chase runs.
Only two of the last 11 had previously won a Graded race
No winners in the last 18 wearing any sort of headgear or BF last time out
Rated between 130 and 149.
Only three winning favourites this century
BROWNS ADVISORY CONTENDERS
CHANTRY HOUSE
Comes in a little high on the side of the weights but has considerable untapped potential for Nicky Henderson and wouldn’t be out of place in the Marsh Novices Chase. Formerly the Supreme Novice 3rd at last years Cheltenham Festival he is more likely to take up the Novice engagement but would be a big danger to all if following this route.
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COCONUT SPLASH
Has been in fine form this season including at Wetherby on his latest start when chasing home the above mentioned Chantry House to be beaten 3 ¼ lengths. He would be 14lbs better off with that rival should they meet on these handicap terms and he was given a fairly easy time of things with handicaps likely in mind on that occasion. He chased home Messire Des Obeaux (150) before that at Wincanton and his jockey was mindful not to get to close in the closing stages and it was a good job given the winner went on to land the Grade 2 Dipper Novices Chase at the same venue next time. He looks extremely well handicapped off this mark of 137 and should be followed whichever route connections decide to take.
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FARCLAS
Has been competing in the top handicap chases across the Irish seas but has failed to see out the 3m and the 2m5f the last twice and a drop back in trip may be in order.
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ESPOIR DE ROMAY
Has been quoted as “not going” to a reply on Twitter about his well-handicapped horses’ chances at Cheltenham.
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OFF YOU GO
Has often failed to deliver but has kept warm company and finally got his head in front at the Dublin Racing Festival earlier this month. He now sits on an Irish Handicap mark of 147 and is likely to get raised again by the English Handicapper should he take up this engagement and there may be better-treated rivals to focus on.
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HOLD THE NOTE
Bounced back to form for Mick Channon at Newbury when chasing home Enrillo off his much-reduced mark and there is every chance that he is being wound up for a crack at this race. He finished third behind Imperial Aura and Galvin in the Northern Trust Novice Chase at last years festival off a handicap mark of 145 and now sits on a mark of 138. He doesn’t quite see out the 3m trip and found last year’s 2m4f just on the short side so this trip should be spot on and he rates an interesting runner.
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BROWNS ADVISORY – BIG RACE VERDICT
This looks highly competitive but ready preference should he take up this option is for the well-handicapped COCONUT SPLASH who is available at a wild 20/1. He looks extremely well handicapped on the form he has shown this season and he hasn’t been asked for a single effort with a race like this lined up for quite some time. He is unexposed and fits nearly all the criteria of the above stats and would rate one of my more substantial bets at this years Cheltenham Festival once his target is confirmed.
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