The 2021 Cheltenham Festival previews continue with the exicting 2m County Hurdle. Our top tipster Daryl Carter takes a look at the race and picks out the key stats, trends and contenders
COUNTY HURDLE OVERVIEW
Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 5 winners and none of his winners had raced since in the same calendar year
Irish Trainers have won 7/11,
Only 2 previous course winners since 1991 and both were second-season novices.
12 of the last 14 winners had a BHA rating between 132 and 139.
Saint Roi the only handicap debut winner since 1993
Only one winner this century had won a chase over further than 2m 3f
Last 6 winners had not been raced for at least 50 days
Last five winners not seen out since 1st January
GRAND ANNUAL CONTENDERS
BLUE LORD
Blue Lord heads the market after contesting and falling short in Grade 1 Company over 2m and 2 ½ miles this season but the opening handicap mark of 142 from the Irish Handicapper has seen him supported into a favourite for this contest.
He will need to be reassessed by the English Handicapper before running in this contest and will likely get at least 3 or 4lbs added which doesn’t make him look overly attractive from a handicapping perspective.
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SAINT ROI
Gordon Elliot entered Grand Roi at Musselburgh earlier on in the year to test the water with the English Handicapper and he reacted with an opening mark of 146.
He has been contesting some strong races this season and has landed a Grade 2 victory and with the promise of more to come after just five starts over hurdles, he looks fairly treated on the balance. He must have a good chance but will carry his fair share of the weight..
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CADZAND
Dan Skelton has an excellent record in this race and despite Cadzand disappointing in the Betfair Hurdle when a well-supported favourite his trainer did hint before the race that the County Hurdle was the target unless he blew his mark in the Betfair Hurdle.
It is hard to envisage that he has been “plotted” for this race given the value of that contest at Newbury recently so questions have to be answered.
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THIRD TIME LUCKI
Another runner that is likely to come here for Dan Skelton after disappointing in his final novice start at Musselburgh after looking like a Supreme Novice Hurdle candidate earlier in the season.
It’s been a strange campaign as the Musselburgh track wouldn’t have suited him and he has been seen out five times this year which may have put him over the top for this meeting. He looked smart but has been over-run in my opinion.
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FIFTY BALL
Improved significantly on his Sandown run at Newbury in the Betfair Hurdle to finish runner-up off a handicap mark of 131 and although he is due a hefty rise in the weights he is unexposed after just five hurdle starts.
He looks a promising type and is an improving horse for Gary Moore and one that should not be underestimated.
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VERDANA BLUE
Looks to have been regressive for Nicky Henderson this season after defeats in all three starts including on her favoured good ground at Kempton.
She was rated 160 at the turn of the year but is now down to a handicap mark of 151 and hasn’t been seen since December but there is a suspicion that this race has been the plan for quite some time.
This race is usually landed by one that is a borderline graded horse and she would fit that bill but she has shown very little and is hard to gauge.
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THE SHUNTER
The Emmet Mullins trained eight-year-old raided the British shores to land the Greatwood Handicap at Cheltenham in November to run out a comfortable winner over Ballyandy off a handicap mark of 128.
He currently sits on a handicap mark of 134 (Irish) and has had just the one start (over fences) since and looks to have been laid out for this race so must be a danger to all.
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COUNTY HURDLE – BIG RACE VERDICT
I have probably not even scraped the surface with the runners in this list above and it’s extremely difficult to have any confident view on the race without the weights. However, this has looked the plan for THE SHUNTER and he was impressive when winning the Greatwood at Cheltenham in November and looks to have been raced sparingly since so could have a say in matters and looks over-priced in the current markets.
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