The latest GG Cheltenham ante-post is the Daylesford Mares Novices’ Hurdle, in what looks to be a wide open contest. Andrew Mount navigates his way through a raft of stats and race trends to give his view on each runner and his big race verdict!
.
DAYLESFORD MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE (Cheltenham, Thursday, March 18)
KEY STATS – TRAINERS
Willie Mullins has won all five runnings of this race (50-1, 9-2, 11-8f, 8-11f and 4-7f). He’s had 19 runners in total for a profit of £43.17 to a £1 level stake at SP.
RUNNING STYLE
Four of the five winners were ridden patiently. Those who led or raced prominently were 1-33 for a loss of £31.27.
RECENT FORM
All five winners recorded a top-three finish in their final start before Cheltenham.
COUNTRY OF BREEDING
French breds are 4-29 (+£31.45), British (0-15) and Irish breds (1-44) have shown a huge loss. USA and German breds are both 0-1.
AGE
Five-year-olds are 4-36, six-year-olds 1-36, four-year-olds 0-6 and those aged seven plus are 0-12
KEY CONTENDERS
ROYAL KAHALA (USA)
Found Roseys Hollow two lengths too good when 11-10 favourite for the Grade 3 Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse on February 8th, taking her record, outside of her seasonal debuts, to 1112 (3-4). She looks the type to appreciate a bigger field and stronger gallop and makes the Cheltenham shortlist.
BACK ROYAL KAHALA HERE AND GET A £20 RISK FREE BET AT SBK
ROSEYS HOLLOW (IRE)
Took her record to 13411 (3-5) when taking the Solerina from Royal Kahala, impressing with her attitude. She also took the inside route where the ground might have been a touch slower. Her sire, Beat Hollow, is 4-37 with his hurdlers at Cheltenham (+£57.00 to a £1 level stake at SP), improving to 417000601210P (3-13) with festival runners who had raced within the past eight weeks, for a profit of £75.00.
BACK ROSEYS HOLLOW HERE AND GET A £20 RISK FREE BET AT SBK
SHEWEARSITWELL (GER)
The Willie Mullins-trained SHEWEARSITWELL (GER) remains unbeaten in three career starts after hacking up in a Grade 3 novice hurdle at Tipperary in October, though the runner-up did little for the form next time and the subsequent absence is a slight concern.
BACK SHEWEARSITWELL HERE AND GET A £20 RISK FREE BET AT SBK
HOOK UP (FR)
Five-year-old HOOK UP (FR) didn’t jump brilliantly when a 50-1 fourth to stablemate Appreciate It in the Grade 1 Pharma Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF). She fits the age/breeding/trainer profile of previous winners and makes the shortlist.
BACK HOK UP HERE AND GET A £20 RISK FREE BET AT SBK
GLANCING QUEEN (USA)
Seven-year-old THE GLANCING QUEEN (USA) fared second best of the British-trained runners (behind Thyme Hill) when fifth to Envoi Allen in the 2019 Champion Bumper. She followed that with victory in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree and has done well since switched to hurdles this term, winning mares races at Warwick and Bangor either side of her third to Bravemansgame in the Challow Hurdle. If we ignore her runs in Grade 1 company, her record in the point-to-point and National Hunt sphere stands at 113111 (5-6), with the defeat excusable as she raced in the ‘swamp’ on the inside when third in a Listed bumper at Ascot. She was due to have her final prep run at Newbury (February 13th) or Exeter (February 14th).
BACK GLANCING QUEEN HERE AND GET A £20 RISK FREE BET AT SBK
ECHOES IN RAIN (IRE)
ECHOES IN RAIN (IRE), a five-year-old trained by Willie Mullins, was only fourth of seventh behind Dreal Deal in Grade 2 company at Punchestown last time but she made the running on the inside where the ground was deeper and her run can be upgraded. She came home 15 lengths clear in a maiden hurdle at Naas the time before and holds each-way claims.
BACK ECHOES IN RAIN HERE AND GET A £20 RISK FREE BET AT SBK
GJOUMI (FR)
GJOUMI (FR) was a respectable 16-1 fourth when making her hurdles debut in Grade 3 company at Fairyhouse last season but hasn’t progressed this term, falling when held at Thurles (11-10 2nd fav) and finishing 24 lengths back in third when odds-on at Cork. However, quicker ground could see her in a much better light.
BACK GJOUMI HERE AND GET A £20 RISK FREE BET AT SBK
MRS HYDE (USA)
MRS HYDE (USA) has form figures for Brian Ellison of 113113 (4-6), with the first defeat most eyecatching as she got no cover from the strong wind in the home straight at Market Rasen. She does tend to jump out to her right but if the stands’ side rail is favoured in the straight that could see her end up on the quickest ground. She’s been rested since her Newbury defeat in late November and could go well.
BACK MRS HYDE HERE AND GET A £20 RISK FREE BET AT SBK
GALICE MACALO (IRE)
GALICE MACALO (IRE) started at just 3-1 for the Tolworth but trailed home 37 lengths behind Metier in that Grade 1 contest after failing to settle. Since her hurdles debut, her record in fields of ten or more runners reads F112 (2-4) and she could bounce back if settling early.
BACK GALICE MACALO HERE AND GET A £20 RISK FREE BET AT SBK
BELLE DE MANECH (FR)
BELLE DE MANECH (FR) accounted for subsequent winner Rose Of Arcadia at Wincanton on Boxing Day and can be forgiven her subsequent Fontwell runner-up effort as the winner raced wider and grabbed the favoured rail. She would have a squeak if the ground was very testing.
BACK BELLE DE MANECH HERE AND GET A £20 RISK FREE BET AT SBK
DAYLESFORD MARES’ NOVICES’ HURDLE VERDICT
At the time of writing this was one of the most open betting races for a non-handicap, with some bookmakers going 7-1 the field. Royal Kahala failed to justify favouritism in the Solerina but will be happier off a likely stronger gallop this time, while Roseys Hollow, the winner of that race, also has to be considered. However, neither is trained by Willie Mullins, five from five in this race, so it might be safer to stick with one of his runners. HOOK UP, Echos In Rain and Gjoumi (if it rides good to soft or quicker) are the three on my radar at this very early stage.
Join SBK and Deposit £20, To Claim A Risk Free £20 Bet
Full welcome bonus terms
Once the bonus is credited to your account, losses will be refunded up to the bonus amount. 2. You must deposit at least the qualifying deposit of £20 (or currency equivalent) in a single amount with your first deposit to be eligible for the rebate.
Users making their first deposit by Skrill, Neteller, PayPal or a virtual/prepaid card will not qualify for this promotion. 4. To withdraw rebated funds, you must bet at least the qualifying deposit on any combination of markets within the promotional period; otherwise rebated funds will be forfeited.
Unused bonuses expire after seven days of being credited to a user account and will be removed after this period. 6. The promotion is open to new users making their first deposit by card, bank transfer or Trustly only.
The sign-up offer is strictly limited to one per individual, family, household address, email address, same payment account number, and shared computer. 8. The offer is can only be redeemed by users who sign up and deposit after 00:00 on January 2nd 2020. 9. This promotion cannot be used in conjunction with any other sign-up promotion. 10. SBK standard terms for promotions apply.