In the latest of our 2021 Cheltenham Festival ante-post previews, GG’s top tipster Andrew Mount tackles the Marsh Novice Chase, which looks set to feature the next step up the chasing leader for the unbeaten Envoi Allen.
MARSH NOVICES’ CHASE PREVIEW (Cheltenham, Thursday, March 16)
This race began life as a Grade 2 contest and was upgraded to Grade 1 status in 2014..
KEY STATS – PREP RACE
simply backing last time out winners has been a successful punting angle, with seven winners from 29 bets for a profit of £18.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Seven-year-olds, who scored in their prep race, have a four from eight record (+£28.50). Eleven of the 22 last-time-out winners finished second or third and putting them all in the Placepot would have seen you survive to the next leg in all ten runnings, as well as hitting tricasts in 2017 and 2018.
Nine of the ten winners ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase in their final start before Cheltenham, the other in a Grade 3.
RUNNING STYLE
Two winners made the running, four were prominent and four came from off the pace..
TRAINERS
Irish trainers have won eight of the ten runnings. Willie Mullins has won this four times but backing his 18 runners would have lost you £4.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Gordon Elliott has sent out two winners (both 4-1) and a 9-1 third from just three representatives.
COURSE LAST TIME
six of the ten winners prepped at Leopardstown (+£14.00), the others at Limerick, Navan, Haydock and Sandown.
KEY CONTENDERS
ENVOI ALLEN
ENVOI ALLEN, unbeaten in 11 career starts, didn’t exactly set the pulse racing when justifying cramped odds in Grade 3 company at Punchestown last time, a task made much simpler by the early departure of main market rival Asterion Forlonge. Last year’s Ballymore winner is also entered in the Arkle but will surely contest this race, for which he’s currently trading at a best-priced 10-11.
The next two in the betting (both around 12-1) – ENERGUMENE and SHAN BLUE – are more likely to head to the Arkle (2m) and Festival Novices’ Chase (3m) respectively.
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ALLART
Took a tumble when odds-on for a 2m4f Grade 2 at Haydock last time also made mistakes when scoring on his chase debut at Ascot.
His jumping was also far from foot perfect over hurdles and he’ll need to impress this weekend (he’s entered at Musselburgh and Sandown) if he’s to make the shortlist. He has festival experience, having finished a highly-creditable 28-1 fifth to stablemate Shiskin in last season’s Supreme.
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ANDY DUFRESNE
Missed last season’s festival after his modest third in a Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at Naas in February (6-5f) but has resumed his progression this term, recording odds-on chase victories over 2m/2m1f at Wexford and Navan (Grade 3). After the latest win, trainer Gordon Elliott stated “Andy Dufresne needs 2m4f, though at the time of writing he is entered over both 2m1f and 2m5f at the Dublin Racing Festival.
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COLREEVY
Three from three over fences including a narrow Grade 1 success from Pencilfulloflead at Limerick on Boxing Day, the pair pulling 16 lengths clear of the third.
She followed that with a smooth 12-length win in a mares Grade 2 contest at Thurles and is yet another who might line up at the DRF this weekend. Trainer Willie Mullins nominated a Grade 2 mares’ race at Limerick on March 14 as her intended target, so it’s very doubtful that she’ll line up here.
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LATEST EXHIBITION
Reportedly lost a shoe when a neck second to Monkfish in the Albert Bartlett and was three lengths behind his old rival in the Grade 1 Neville Hotels Novice Chase over three miles at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting.
He shaped as though the return to a shorter trip might help and he’s likely to contest the 2m5f Flogas Novice Chase at the same venue this weekend (February 6). Paul Nolan’s consistent eight-year-old has form figures of 2112112122 (5-10) and he looks a reasonable each-way alternative to the favourite with the non-runner no bet proviso, as he’s also entered in 3m and 3m6.5f novice chases at Cheltenham.
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ROYAL PAGAILLE
Mightily impressive in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock last time but looks more likely to contest the Festival Novices’ Chase (formerly the RSA Chase) or the Gold Cup.
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CONFLATED
Tailed off when third of six behind Monkfish over 3m at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting but looks interesting back at this shorter trip and has long struck me as the type to do better granted a big field/strong pace scenario.
Since his Rules debut his record in fields of 12 or more runners reads 413121 (3-6), compared to U2F34433 (0-8) in smaller line-ups.
Gordon Elliott’s seven-year-old looks likely to contest the 2m5f handicap chase at the Dublin Racing Festival and win there could see him come into the Cheltenham reckoning.
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MAROWN
Clocked a good speed figure according to Raceform when chasing home Silver Hallmark in Grade 2 company at Haydock last time and could run well at huge odds.
HIs record over trips of about 1m4f now reads 1112 (3-4) and he’s two from two in March. His six career outings have taken place on officially soft or heavy going but he might improve for a slightly quicker surface.
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MARSH NOVICE CHASE BIG-RACE VERDICT
This could cut up badly thanks to the presence of unbeaten Envoi Allen and LATEST EXHIBITION looks the value alternative to the antepost favourite, though don’t back him now with the ‘non-runner no bet’ concession.
A big run over 2m5f at the Dublin Racing Festival this weekend could see him swerve a rematch with old rival Monkfish and run over this shorter trip. Conflated also has possibilities while Marown could sneak into the frame at huge odds.
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