In the latest of GG’s 2021 Cheltenham Festival Previews, Daryl Carter has assessed the runners and riders for the National Hunt Chase, a race that can no longer be called the four-miler!
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE OVERVIEW
The last nine winners were rated 142, 145, 150, 150, 152, 143, 146, 150, 146 and 151 respectively. Horses rated 150+ are four from 10 in the past 10 years
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE KEY CONTENDERS
GALVIN 5/1 (Official Rating: 151)
Gordon Elliott has won this race four times in the last ten years and the yard’s leading representative is GALVIN, who has headed the ante-post market since his win over 3m½f at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting in October.
The plan has always been to come here for this race fresh and he is now unbeaten in four starts since chasing home Ryanair hopeful, Imperial Aura, at last season’s Cheltenham Festival in the Novice Handicap Chase off a handicap mark of 142.
This trip is a slight unknown given we have only seen him over 3m once in his career but the way he travels through his races would give connections every confidence that it is a distance within range. He possesses the class angle for this race which has seen 150+ rated horses win 4/10 and Ireland have dominated in recent years winning 6/10.
BACK GALVIN HERE AND GET A £20 RISK-FREE BET
ROYALE PAGAILLE 11/2 (Official Rating: 166)
This season’s most improved novice chaser will hold outstanding claims should he run in this race but he has options of both the RSA and the Gold Cup.
He is technically a fourth-season novice chaser with 11 starts over regulation fences on British and French shores and he has failed to put a foot wrong in three chase starts this season. He won off a handicap mark of 135 at Haydock and according to the official handicapper, he has improved 31lb this term after further back-to-back successes at Kempton and Haydock. He would hold an outstanding claim if he shows up, but that is a big if.
BACK ROYAL PAGAILLE HERE AND GET A £20 RISK-FREE BET
NEXT DESTINATION 10/1 (Official Rating: 153)
High-class former Grade 1 novice hurdle winner for Willie Mullins before suffering a setback that kept him off the track for 920 days and he has made a smooth transition to the Paul Nicholls yard, landing back-to-back Grade 2 successes on his first two chase starts at Newbury and Warwick.
He has stamina in abundance and all of his best work has come at the end of his 3m races so this trip should be within his range. He ticks the box for Cheltenham Festival form with a third-place finish in the Ballymore Novice Hurdle in 2018 and looks to hold strong claims with the correct rating.
It would be interesting to see if he is entered in the Reynoldstown at Ascot in mid-February because it can be argued that he is light on chase experience with 10/12 winners having had at least four runs that season. The negatives continue to pile up with his trainer’s record of 0-18 in this race and his age of nine years old means he will attempt to be the fifth horse older than eight to win this race in the last 100 years.
BACK NEXT DESTINATION HERE AND GET A £20 RISK-FREE BET
SECRET REPRIEVE 16/1 (Official Rating: 144)
Welsh National winner last time and is unbeaten in his last two races but is likely to follow former Welsh National winners to Aintree.
Only Native River and Elegant Escape have run at Cheltenham from the last ten winners and both ran in the Gold Cup but SECRET REPRIEVE is an exciting young horse with a bright future and would be a welcome addition to this stamina-sapping race.
BACK SECRET REPRIEVE HERE AND GET A £20 RISK-FREE BET
IF THE CAP FITS 20/1 (Official Rating: 152)
Harry Fry’s nine-year-old IF THE CAP FITS is yet to match his smart hurdle form over fences and was outstayed by Yala Enki in the Portman Cup at Taunton when last seen over 3m4½f.
That may put pay to his chances in this more competitive race and this contest has only seen four winners this century older than eight years of age.
BACK IF THE CAP FITS HERE AND GET A £20 RISK-FREE BET
ESCARIA TEN 20/1
ESCARIA TEN is on the improve for trainer Gordon Elliott, has shaped as if this stern test of stamina would suit and, although he hasn’t yet achieved the required rating needed to win this race, he is likely to be seen again before the Cheltenham Festival.
He was better than the bare result at Naas behind the rapidly improving and unexposed Eklat De Rire, who will likely take high rank in graded novice races this term.
He ran on the worst of the ground on the inside rail and could prove to be a dark horse in this field with improvement for this trip highly likely.
BACK ESCARIA TEN HERE AND GET A £20 RISK-FREE BET
ST BARTS 33/1 (Official Rating: 137)
ST BARTS will probably need a few of the market leaders to defect to other races and there is every chance of him going to the Ultima Handicap, but he finished his race out strongly at Newbury in November over 3m and looks a horse with plenty of future scope for improvement.
He could well prove better than a handicapper in time and would be very interesting should he run here, but his trainer rarely has runners in this race with Jerrysback and Return Spring his only two entries in the last ten years.
BACK ST BART’S HERE AND GET A £20 RISK-FREE BET
LONGHOUSE POET 33/1 (Official Rating: 139)
LONGHOUSE POET hasn’t reached the heights of his smart novice hurdle form from last season since tackling fences but his latest win at Punchestown was a step back in the right direction.
That was his first run over 3m1f and it’s likely his ability has been masked by running over 2m3f in two runs prior which suggests that connections may opt for a handicap.
He ticks plenty of boxes for this race, including the age bracket, with 9/12 winners aged between 6 and 8 and connections’ comments after his latest run suggest he will be contesting extended staying trips, so his future could well lie here.
BACK LONGHOUSE POET AND GET A £20 RISK-FREE BET
COKO BEACH 14/1
COKO BEACH could be a late springer in the market for trainer Gordon Elliott who will likely see his chances at a handicap put to bed by the British handicapper after his latest Gowran Park Thyestes Chase performance.
He ran out a comfortable winner of the Grade A handicap off a handicap mark of 138 and that’s likely to force connections hand into this race. He was strong at the finish in his first start over 3m and has previous Cheltenham form when he finished ninth in the Coral Cup last term.
He has plenty of experience over fences after 5 starts this season and has form that ties in with plenty of runners in this race. His age bracket would be the only concern with six-year-olds holding a record of 2/80 since 1989 and that includes four favourites for the race.
BACK COKO BEACH HERE AND GET A £20 RISK-FREE BET
NATIONAL HUNT CHASE BIG-RACE VERDICT
Many horses have other options and this race tends to be the last resort for many, but that isn’t the case for GALVIN who ticks all the boxes for this race being a seven-year-old that has had the required amount of runs needed, holds Cheltenham course experience and has finished in the first two at a Cheltenham Festival.
His rating, providing Royal Pagaille chooses another route, will see him top-rated and it is tough to pick holes in him. Although the trip is an unknown, it’s hard to see him out of the frame providing a clear round.
Of those at bigger prices, LONGHOUSE POET would be of interest if taking this route and is a horse that has always looked as if a stamina-sapping trip would suit.
.
Join SBK and Deposit £20, To Claim A Risk Free £20 Bet
Full welcome bonus terms
Once the bonus is credited to your account, losses will be refunded up to the bonus amount. 2. You must deposit at least the qualifying deposit of £20 (or currency equivalent) in a single amount with your first deposit to be eligible for the rebate.
Users making their first deposit by Skrill, Neteller, PayPal or a virtual/prepaid card will not qualify for this promotion. 4. To withdraw rebated funds, you must bet at least the qualifying deposit on any combination of markets within the promotional period; otherwise rebated funds will be forfeited.
Unused bonuses expire after seven days of being credited to a user account and will be removed after this period. 6. The promotion is open to new users making their first deposit by card, bank transfer or Trustly only.
The sign-up offer is strictly limited to one per individual, family, household address, email address, same payment account number, and shared computer. 8. The offer is can only be redeemed by users who sign up and deposit after 00:00 on January 2nd 2020. 9. This promotion cannot be used in conjunction with any other sign-up promotion. 10. SBK standard terms for promotions apply.