Our top tipster, Andrew Mount, breaks down Saturday’s the 2021 Randox Grand National, with a runner by runner guide to the big race, as our bettng guru picks out his selections and dangers for Aintree’s main event.
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BRISTOL DE MAI
Haydock expert, who hasn’t won away from that venue since landing the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby in November 2017. Arguably, this flat, galloping left-handed venue will also suit but he has plenty of weight to carry.
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CHRIS’S DREAM
All six career wins have come between November and February on yielding or softer going. He has form in big fields but pulled up in the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham last month, a run that took his record in March or April to 0095P0P (0-7).
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YALA ENKI
Struggled when taken on for the lead by Native River at Sandown last time, trailing home 30 lengths behind the winner in fourth. He fell at the first when asked to tackle these fences in this season’s Becher Chase and would prefer softer going.
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BALLYOPTIC
The 11-year-old has been a great servant to the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard but he usually struggles in big fields. His five chase wins have come in fields of eight or fewer runners and his chase record in larger line-ups stands at 42F6PF0P06 (0-10). The second place was a desperately narrow defeat in the 2018 Scottish Grand National but his three runs over these fences have resulted in two falls and an 81-length 11th of 18.
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DEFINITLY RED
Brian Ellison’s 12-year-old is best in small fields, winning 15 of his 28 starts when faced with ten or fewer rivals. His record in fields of 12 or more runners reads 7P2FUP6B4 (0-9) and he looks likely to encounter traffic trouble, as he did in the 2017 renewal when pulled up after being badly hampered.
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LAKE VIEW LAD
Has had wind surgery since a disappointing last of five behind Cloth Cap at Kelso last month but tends to come to hand early in the season, with eight of his nine wins from November to February. He won over hurdles in April 2016 but was the 1-14 favourite in a three-runner contest.
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BURROWS SAINT
Winner of the 2019 Irish Grand National, the Willie Mullins-trained eight-year-old ran respectably in Grade 3 company at Fairyhouse on his first start since the Aintree weights were revealed. Three of his last four wins have come in the spring and his record on ground faster than good to soft since joining his current yard reads 111 (3-3). The left-handed track is a question mark – he jumped out to his right at Fairyhouse last time and has never raced this way round over fences.
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MAGIC OF LIGHT
Finished a 66-1 second to Tiger Roll in this race two years ago and has won three mares-only races since. She runs off just a 1lb higher mark this time around and she’ll be happier back over a longer trip after trailing home eighth to Colreevy in the mares’ chase at Cheltenham.
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ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS
Beat stablemate Burrows Saint at Fairyhouse last time but the very soft conditions were against the runner-up that day. He has form on good ground in the spring, beating Yorkhill at Clonmel in March 2019 and finishing an 18-1 third to Burrows Saint in the Irish Grand National the following month.
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TALKISCHEAP
Stormed clear to win the 2019 bet365 Gold Cup on his preferred good ground and looked on his way back when third in a jumpers’ bumper at Lingfield in February. He finished last of the 12-1 finishers at Kempton on his latest outing but was 40-1 and the sharp track wouldn’t have suited. His form at Doncaster and Newbury suggests that Aintree’s configuration will suit and it looks like the ground will be in his favour.#
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TOUT EST PERMIS
Fell in a small field in last month’s final prep race but will appreciate the drying ground and four of his best five Racing Post Ratings have come over three miles or further. He’s yet to win in the spring but did run third of 24 in last year’s Pertemps Final and couldn’t be entirely dismissed.
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ANIBALE FLY
Without a win since December 2017 but he kept on well when a 10-1 fifth to Tiger Roll in the 2019 renewal and wasn’t totally disgraced behind Acapella Bourgeois and Burrows Saint at Fairyhouse on his belated seasonal debut. Could run into a place.
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MISTER MALARKEY
Hard to predict, looking best on fast ground before his heavy-ground Ascot win in December. He was allowed to dominate that day, something which looks highly unlikely here. His stable’s modest recent form is another cause for concern.
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KIMBERLITE CANDY
Chased home Vieux Lion Rouge at a very respectful distance over these fences in the Becher and was also second in the same race in 2019. He hasn’t won on ground quicker than soft since landing a maiden hurdle back in 2016 and he looks short enough in the betting unless conditions ease.
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ANY SECOND NOW
Bounced back to form at Navan last month, landing a two-mile Grade 2 contest on heavy ground. His chase record left-handed now reads 22385531U311 (3-12), with the eighth place at the Cheltenham festival in 2018 (he returned the following year to beat his 22 rivals in the Kim Muir).
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BALKO DES FLOS
Unseated in the cross-country chase at the Cheltenham festival and has failed to win since landing the 2018 Ryanair Chase.
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ALPHA DES OBEAUX
Finished a respectable fourth to Tiger Roll in the cross-country chase at Cheltenham last month, though has never scored in a big field and five of his six wins under Rules have come in late October or November.
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OK CORRAL
Won the 2020 Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster on his penultimate start and reportedly finished lame when pulled up at 33-1 in the Ultima Handicap Chase at last month’s Cheltenham festival on his belated reappearance. He’s only had seven runs over fences and lack of experience is a concern.
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TAKINGRISKS
The Nicky Richards-trained 12-year-old has run two cracking races since returning from a wind operation, finishing a 40-1 fourth in the Rehearsal Chase before landing the Sky Bet Chase at the same price. He possesses the ‘spring factor’, having won the 2019 Scottish Grand National at Ayr where he had Cloth Cap four lengths back in third place.
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SHATTERED LOVE
She ran a solid third in the new race at Cheltenham, taking her record in mares-only races to 131221171111123 (9-15). It’s over three years since she won against the boys and her stamina is open to question.
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JETT
Best in small fields when able to dominate, he ran poorly in first-time blinkers over hurdles on her latest start and was beaten by 101 lengths over these fences in the Becher Chase.
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LORD DU MESNIL
Bounced back to form at Haydock in February on his first start since the weights were published, holding on gamely by half a length in the Grand National Trial Handicap. All his wins have come on soft or heavy going and the recent dry spell is a major concern.
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POTTERS CORNER
Pulled up over hurdles at Exeter when last seen but is having his first start over regulation fences since landing the 2019 Welsh Grand National off a 4lb lower mark. The application of first-time blinkers is a gamble and the ground will be quicker than preferred.
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CLASS CONTI
His best efforts since leaving France have come on soft or heavy going, though he found only one too good off a 4lb lower mark in a big field at Gowran Park last term and didn’t shape badly at Navan last time.
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MILAN NATIVE
Reportedly lost a shoe when disappointing in the Ultima on his first start following wind surgery and won the Kim Muir in a huge field the previous year. The drying ground is a worry.
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DISCORAMA
Placed at the Cheltenham festival in 2018, 2019 and 2020, so it looks significant that he missed that meeting this year to wait for Aintree. He goes especially well in big fields and holds each-way claims.
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VIEUX LION ROUGE
Has stacks of experience over these fences, recording form figures of 716792091 (2-9), with the wins in the Becher Chase (2016 and 2020). He was only 15th to Tiger Roll in 2019 and looks set to struggle again.
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CLOTH CAP
Improved for the addition of cheekpieces and heads the market after impressive front-running wins at Newbury and Kelso. Forcing tactics have not been successful in this race in recent years and he’s 14lb well in (runs off his old mark of 148 but now rated 162). The price is nothing to write home about but he’s hard to dismiss.
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CABARET QUEEN
Has done her winning from June to October and was soon beaten in the new mares’ race at the Cheltenham festival last month.
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MINELLACELEBRATION
Has gone off the boil since winning a veteran’s handicap on good ground here in October but that’s normal and he’s now 0-11 from November to February in the last five years. In the same period, he’s won eight of his 19 starts from March to October (+£45.00 to a £1 level stake at SP), improving to eight from 14 over 3m or further. He’s yet to run well in two starts over these fences but both came in December and he could surprise.
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CANELO
Has won twice in the spring and seems happiest on flat left-handed tracks. HIs patient style was at a disadvantage when third in the Grimthorpe at Doncaster last month and he could sneak into the first six.
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THE LONG MILE
Yet to win beyond 2m3.5f but finished a respectable third to Acapella Bourgeois and Burrows Saint over 3m1.5f at Fairyhouse last time. All his wins have come on soft or heavy going and he’s not sure to produce his best on drying spring ground.
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GIVE ME A COPPER
Pulled up behind Takingrisks at Doncaster last time but the soft ground was probably to blame. This trip could suit – he kept on well when fourth to Talkischeap in the 2019 bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown – and he could go well.
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FARCLAS
Chased home The Shunter in a big field over 2m4.5f at Cheltenham last month and runs off the same handicap mark here. The was third of 22 at Leopardstown on his sole start over 3m+ but stamina remains an obvious worry.
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MINELLA TIMES
Arrives here in good form, having recorded two runner-up efforts in big fields since September’s Lsitowel success. Yet to win on ground quicker than soft but effective on it and he’s very rarely outside of the first four. Place claims but offers of around 10-1 look short enough given that the stamina doubts remain.
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SUB LIEUTENANT
Not won since 2018 but likes good ground and has run respectably at big prices in both starts for Georgie Howell. Finished second over these fences when 25-1 for the 2019 Topham Chase and could defy advancing years with a placed effort.
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HOGAN’S HEIGHTS
Won the Sefton Handicap Chase here when last running over regulation fences, though stamina remains the burning issue.
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AMI DESBOIS
Seems best on winter ground and five of his six wins have come when starting as favourite. Big field another concern and easy to oppose.
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BLAKLION
Latest win came over these fences on heavy ground in the 2017 Becher. 8lb lower here, handles quicker ground and has got closer in each of three runs for in-form Dan Skelton. Could sneak a place at big odds.
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SELECTIONS
Main Selection: Acapella Bourgeois
Dangers: Burrows Saint, Talkischeap, Any Second Now, Takingrisks, Discorama, Cloth Cap, Minellacelebration, Give Me A Copper
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