Our latest 2021 Cheltenham Festival Previews is the Ryanair Chase. Daryl Carter has crunched the numbers and analysed the form to bring you his ante-post verdict on one of the feature races on Day 3.
RYANAIR CHASE OVERVIEW
Nine of the last ten winners of this contest had previously run at the Cheltenham Festival the year before taking up this engagement and four had come from the JLT (Marsh Novice Chase). Eight of the last 11 winners had finished in the first two in a Festival race.
Course form is a must-have with 11/12 having had at least two previous runs at the course and 9/12 having had a previous win at Cheltenham.
KEY CONTENDERS
MIN
The Willie Mullins-trained runner finally got his elusive Cheltenham Festival win last year and will attempt to defend his crown as a ten-year-old. The admirable Ricci owned runner is 6/7 over this trip, which includes five Grade 1 victories, and he has been a model of consistency throughout his career finishing outside of the first two places on just two occasions.
He will attempt to be the first horse since Albertas Run to win back to back Ryanair Chases and the first since that horse to win as a ten-year-old. A win in the fog for a third successive win in the John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown on seasonal return this year added another Grade 1 victory to his roster.
He was all-out to win this race last season from the strong travelling Saint Calvados, who was arguably unlucky when denied a clear run, and a mistake at the final fence proved costly after he had to switch on the run in. Min’s current odds certainly represent value but could he now prove vulnerable to younger legs?
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ALLAHO
Willie Mullins holds a strong hand in this contest with his 2020 RSA Novice Chase third likely to drop back in trip and join Min to take up this engagement.
A gruelling battle in the novice contest last season saw him outstayed by Gold Cup hopeful Champ in the dying strides and despite two disappointing efforts since, including when behind stablemate Min in the John Durkan, he bounced back to form with a classy win at Thurles in January.
That was a step back in the right direction and, although he is yet to win in Grade 1 company, time is on his side and this race does favour younger horses. Speed would be the question mark against Allaho, who sits on the cusp of the required rating with a mark of 160, and he is a potential improver with untapped ability.
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IMPERIAL AURA
Likely to offer the best of the British challenge this season and has done nothing wrong since landing the Novice Handicap Chase at the Festival last year off a handicap mark of 143.
A Listed win along with an easy Grade 2 victory at Ascot was followed by an early unseat at Kempton and it would be harsh to hold that final run against him given his jumping is usually so assured. He will need to step up on the bare form he has shown in England to date and is yet to compete in Grade 1 company but he is a progressive horse for Kim Bailey and there could be more to come.
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SAINT CALVADOS
Last year’s runner-up can be considered unfortunate after being denied a clear run and a costly mistake at the final fence saw him unable to peg back winner Min.
The eight-year-old will have another bite at the cherry this term but it’s only Frodon that has been successful after being beaten in the race previously (in the last ten years). He does, however; fit the mould for many of the stats and he has run in the right races so far this term and will look to follow, Vautour, Dynaste, Cue Card, Riverside Theatre and Albertas Run to have all been beaten in the King George before winning this race.
Connections did enter him in the abandoned Cotswold Chase over 3m1½ f in January but they should think themselves lucky as that race tends to be a graveyard for Cheltenham Festival hopes. It also suggests that they are keen to try their progressive horse over further and a roll of the dice in the Gold Cup could be on the agenda.
It’s worth keeping an eye on whether they enter for the Ascot Chase in mid-February and follow the path that Cue Card and Riverside Theatre took before they won this race in 2013 and 2012, but he holds valid claims should his preparation go well.
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MELON
Always the bridesmaid and never the bride is a phrase that comes to mind for Willie Mullins’ third runner in this race after he filled the runner-up spot at four Cheltenham Festivals in four different races, including when beaten by a neck in last year’s Marsh Chase by Samcro.
Lightly raced over fences after just six starts, he tends to bring his best form to the Cheltenham Festival and will arrive after contesting one of the key trial races at the Festival last term.
Third to Min in the Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial at Punchestown on seasonal return, when beaten seven lengths, was a promising reappearance effort for a horse who has tended to need his first run at this later stage of his career.
He took his form to a new level when stepped up to 3m in the Grade 1 Savills Chase to finish third beaten two lengths by Gold Cup hopeful, A Plus Tard, and finished 18 lengths ahead of Allaho.
Connections may fancy a roll at the Gold Cup but they do own treble-seeking Al Boum Photo so there is a case to be made that he runs here in the Ryanair but the Dublin Racing Festival perfromance will likely be the deciding factor.
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ALTIOR
An unlikely participant but there is a case to be made that the four-time Cheltenham Festival winner looks in need of a step up in trip after a disappointing seasonal return over 2m at Kempton.
He was readily brushed aside by Nube Negra and lost lengths over his fences jumping high and out to the left but it would be too soon to suggest he is no longer operating at the top level and a return to a left-handed track will suit.
He has been beyond 2m just once in his career when beaten at Ascot by Cyrname in a tactical three-runner affair after a 210 day-break and, on that performance, he should see out this trip just fine.
He rates a risky proposition at the current time but has a class advantage over the field should he run in this race and all eyes will be on his next target, which is likely the Game Spirit at Newbury in early February over 2m.
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SAMCRO
Hasn’t quite lived up to the early hype of his novice days but is now 2/2 at the Cheltenham Festival, which includes taking the scalp of Melon in a close-fought finish in last year’s Marsh Novice Chase.
He seems to come alive in the spring and his master trainer is happy to send him straight to the festival after pulling up in the Savills Chase over 3m at Leopardstown in December. A similar break was used last season after being beaten ten lengths by Faugheen at Limerick on Boxing Day and it will be interesting should he have another wind surgery before the race.
No horse rated below 160 has won the Ryanair and, although the 1lb on official ratings seems insignificant, it is a stat that has stood the test of time.
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GREANETEEN
Paul Nichol;s’ runner will need to defy the stats should he take up this engagement but has looked as though he is screaming for a step up in trip and, given he has likely reached this rating running over a trip too short, he could be a dark horse at big odds.
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RYANAIR CHASE BIG-RACE VERDICT
It’s hard to be nailed to the mast at this early stage but if MELON were to show up here he fits the mould for this race along with his Marsh conqueror Samcro, who has more questions to answer than the former this time around.
The Marsh (former JLT) is a key race trial for this and their final circuit time was 4 seconds faster than Min and Saint Calvados in the Ryanair on the same card. Melon, to my eye, didn’t look to stay the 3m trip in the Savills Chase and was only picked off by the well-positioned Samcro last term so I would expect the two to be there at the finish this time around.
Melon may finally get his elusive Cheltenham Festival win just as his stablemate Min did last year and it would be justly deserved.
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