The next race of our 2021 Cheltenham Festival race previews is the St James’s Place ChallengeCup Huntes Chase, formally known as the Foxhunters Chase and is run over the Gold Cup course and affectionately known as the "Amateur Gold Cup. Our top betting guru, Andrew Mount takes a look at the key stats and trends for this race, along with who may feature among the leading candidates and his ante-post outright pick.
St James’s Place Challenge Cup Hunters’ Chase (Cheltenham, Friday, March 19)
KEY STATS AND TRENDS
AGE
Ten of the last 20 winners were aged nine or ten and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £35.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those aged 12+ were just one from 89, though the expected number of winners (based on their prices) was only 2.69.
BREEDING
British breds are just 2-90 this century.
RUNNING STYLE
Nine of the last ten winners were ridden patiently and one (from a sample of 71 runners) was prominent. All 15 horses who cut out the early running were beaten. It might be a case of amateur jockeys going off too quickly, so this pattern might not be repeated with professional jockeys riding this year.
BETTING
Favourites or joint favourites are six from 22 since the year 2000 for a small profit at SP (+£1.88). That said, there have been plenty of shocks and backing every single runner at Betfair SP in the last ten years would have returned a profit of £161.68 (+69.4% on turnover).
TRAINERS
Eight of the last ten winners were trained in Ireland, the exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls (Pacha Du Polder in 2017 and 2018).
MAIN CONTENDERS
BILLAWAY
BILLAWAY, beaten by ten lengths into second place when the 11-4 favourite for this race last year, also found one too good on his comeback but is unbeaten in two subsequent starts. He beat Staker Wallace into second in a Naas hunters chase at the end of January, as he had done in his final prep before last year’s festival, and looks a worthy favourite.
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STAKER WALLACE
STAKER WALLACE, fourth last year, got closer to Billaway in the Naas Hunters Chase than he did 12 months ago and could well reverse the form this time around.
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BOB AND CO
BOB AND CO bolted up at Haydock on his return from wind surgery and is three from three since controversially pulled up at Warwick in January of last year. HIs forcing style is something of a concern but is still hard to dismiss.
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IT CAME TO PASS
IT CAME TO PASS caused a 66-1 upset in this race last year, slamming Billaway by ten lengths. He was due to take on his old rival in the Naas Hunters Chase at the end of January but missed the race with a bout of coughing. Lack of a run since November is an obvious concern.
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RED INDIAN
Kelly Morgan saddled Top Wood to finish second by a neck at 50-1 in 2018 and a 33-1 third the following year. She has another live hope in the shape of RED INDIAN, who bolted up by 15 lengths at Alnwick when last seen.
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CAT TIGER
CAT TIGER actually went into my tracker when beaten at odds of 1-3 in a Lingfield novice hurdle last season, as he raced in the ‘swamp’ on the inside rail and did well to finish as close as he did. He followed that with two wins at Plumpton before pulling up behind Monkfish in the Albert Bartlett. He was a four-time chase winner in France – twice in Grade 3 company – and he’s had wind surgery since we last saw him. He has entries at Leicester (March 2nd) and Wincanton coming up and an impressive win in either contest would out him bang into contention. He represents the same trainer/owner as Bob And Co, so they might now want to run both in this race.
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HAZEL HILL
HAZEL HILL impressed when winning this race two years ago and won well at Ludlow on his latest outing. He’s a 13-year-old but couldn’t be ruled out.
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ST JAMES’S PLACE HUNTER CHASE – BIG RACE VERDICT
I’ve no strong opinion at this stage, though last year’s second and fourth, Billaway and Staker Wallace, have to enter calculations, especially the latter who was closer to his old rival when runner-up in a key trial at Naas last time. If this prize isn’t going to go to Ireland then it’s probably destined for the Paul Nicholls yard, with CAT TIGER the tentative pick. Red Indian is also respected.
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