The 2021 Cheltenham Festival is just six weeks away and every day in February, our top tipsters Andrew Mount and Daryl Carter will be previewing every race. Andrew leads the way with the Stayers Hurdle.
PADDY POWER STAYERS’ HURDLE PREVIEW (Thursday, March 18)
KEY STAYERS HURDLE STATS
Age:
Those aged five (0-12), ten (0-25), 11 (0-11) and 12 (0-2) have failed to notch a single win this century.
Headgear:
19 of the last 20 winners did not wear headgear. Those that did were just one from 85 (14-1 shot Cole Harden, who wore a tongue-tie in 2015).
Prep run:
Six of the last ten winners prepped at Cheltenham (all British trained), the others at Newbury, Naas, Leopardstown and Punchestown. Three of the last ten winners prepped in a Grade 1, six in a Grade 2 and one in a Grade 3. Those who ran in a handicap last time out were 0-10. Those who had their final start before Cheltenham in a chase were 0-9.
Running style:
Seven of the last ten winners were ridden patiently, one made all and two (from a sample of 34) were prominent throughout. Last-time out front-runners were 0-21.
KEY CONTENDERS: PAISLEY PARK
PAISLEY PARK, the impressive winner of this race in 2019, was reportedly suffering from a fibrillating heart when only seventh in last season’s renewal (4-6 favourite) but has returned to form this term – finishing a close-up second to Thyme Hill in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in November and reversing the form with the winner when landing the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot the following month.
We were denied the chance to see him in the Cleeve Hurdle when Cheltenham’s Trials Day was abandoned last Saturday but he’s likely to have his final prep run in the rearranged Cleeve later this week. Since the start of the 2018 season, his record reads 1111111721 (8-10) and he has an obvious chance of retaining his crown.
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THYME HILL
Best of the British-trained runners when fourth in last season’s Albert Bartlett – looks unlikely to face the three Irish runners who beat him (Monkfish, Latest Exhibition and Fury Road) as all are now competing over the larger obstacles.
Freshness is reportedly the key to the Philip Hobbs-trained seven-year-old, whose record when rested for at least five weeks stands at 12311141 (5-8), with the second place by a neck in a Listed bumper and the other two defeats coming in Grade 1 company at the Cheltenham festival.
It’s possible that the race came too soon – just 22 days after his comeback win – when a neck behind Paisley Park at Ascot last time and, though 0-2 at this meeting, he’s never finished behind a British-trained rival. I’d be happy to back him in a match bet to beat Paisley Park.
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SIRE DU BERLAIS
At the time of writing, the only other horse in single-figure prices was SIRE DU BERLAIS, who had the speed-figure merchants raving when landing a second consecutive Pertemps Final at last year’s festival.
He scored over an inadequate 2m4f trip at Navan in Grade 2 company on his reappearance but was a shade disappointing at Leopardstown just after Christmas when the 11-4 shot could only finish third of seven (beaten by just under seven lengths) to Flooring Porter. That said, the small field wouldn’t have been ideal and the winner was allowed to do his own thing in front.
The fact that he’s been to Cheltenham and done it (twice) is a big positive and he also ran well at the festival in 2018, finishing fourth of 23 in the Martin Pipe, beating all the British-trained runners in the process.
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MCFABULOUS
MCFABULOUS was talked up as a future Gold Cup horse by trainer Paul Nicholls but the 15-8 shot could only finish third to Thyme Hill and Paisley Park in the Long Distance Hurdle on his first attempt at three miles.
He bounced back to score over 2m5f at Kempton when the wide route he took was an advantage, as he raced on better ground. His sole Cheltenham run saw him finish seventh of nine when 13-8 favourite though that was in a bumper on the Old Course when still green on his second career outing. I
nterestingly, he has bombed out on his second run of the season three times now – finishing seventh of nine, last of four and third of ten. Perhaps those runs came too soon after his good reappearance efforts (1st, 2nd and 1st) and if we ignore them, his record becomes 11121111 (7-8), with the sole defeat coming on his hurdling debut.
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FLOORING PORTER
Supplemented for the Grade 1 Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle, made all at 11-1. Beaten off a mark of 119 in handicap company at the same meeting just 12 months earlier, his progress has been quite astonishing. He’s yet to race overseas but now has form figures over 3m+ of 11211 (4-5) and has to enter calculations, despite the modest recent record of pacesetters.
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RONALD PUMP
,Available at 80-1 a few days before last year’s renewal, finished a two-length second at 20-1. It looked a weak affair thanks to odds-on favourite Paisley Park underperforming but he lost a shoe and was reportedly struck into.
He gave Honeysuckle a race when 11-1 for the Grade 1 Hatton’s Grace over 2n4f at Fairyhouse in late November and another big run could be on the cards.
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THE STORYTELLER
At the age of ten THE STORYTELLER would be an unusual winner, but he was only half a length behind Sire Du Berlais in last season’s Pertemps Final and has been in fine form since, winning four times including a Grade 1 chase.
He fared best of the hold-up horses when a six-length second to Flooring Porter in the Christmas Hurdle and is another who will appreciate a bigger field and stronger pace. He won at the festival in 2018 when 5-1 favourite for the Stable Plate.
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SAM’S PROFILE
Fifth in the 2019 Ballymore, didn’t look happy in two spins over fences in November after returning from a 17-month absence. He was a game winner of the Grade 2 Galmoy Hurdle over three miles at Gowran Park in late January when fitted with a first-time hood, taking his record over hurdles to 122521 (2-6). He remains open to further improvement.
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ITCHY FEET
Was due to step up in trip and revert to hurdles in the Cleeve after finishing second of three to subsequent scorer Dashel Drasher in a 2m5f chase at Ascot.
Paddock judge Ken Pitterson has long said that he doesn’t have the size and scope for chasing, despite a Grade 1 victory over the larger obstacles, and he’s placed in both completed Cheltenham outings – finishing second in a Grade 2 hurdle and third in the 2019 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (both on the Old Course).
He could yet make up into a genuine Stayers’ contender.
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STAYERS HURDLE BIG-RACE VERDICT
THYME HILL deliberately kept fresh for this since his narrow defeat by Paisley Park in the Long Walk, can reverse the form with the winner.
McFabulous, behind the aforementioned pair in the Long Distance Hurdle, might give them more of a race this time while Sire Du Berlais, unsuited by the small field and steady pace in the Christmas Hurdle, looks best of a strong Irish challenge. Itchy Feet, a Grade 1 winner over fences, needs to prove his stamina but is one of the more interesting outsiders.
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