Maiden hurdles are often a difficult race type for punters to get their head around – especially with so little known form to go on. I’ve made it my business to punt on these races over the last 10 years, so hopefully the following simple approaches and thoughts might help you pick out some more winners in this sphere.
Using Your Eyes
When you’re registered with the big two racing channels, RUK and ATR, you’re entitled to watch racing replays – for free.
Using your eyes is particularly important when assessing the potential of a young horse or a horse that is new to jumping. For me, there are four elements to consider when watching horses for the first time, or when assessing it’s first couple of runs:
Does the horse jump well?
Is the horse settled, and travelling smoothly through the race?
Did the horse see out the trip – finish the race off to good effect, or did it weaken, and why?
Lastly, after a while of watching races back, you will notice some horses having more physical presence than others, more size, more scope and ultimately – potential to progress or improve. Others will make a notably better “shape” over their obstacles, looking more natural and athletic in the process.
Some horses will jump well on the whole and make “novicey” errors, those can be forgiven and often hint at potential to improve. Most racing fans and punters, when watching a race, are visually fixated on the jockey. Often this is a good indicator as to how a horse is going – but try to look at the horse more to assess how it is acting on the ground, its running style and its jumping technique.
Jumping is key. If a horse cannot jump properly, winning a race of any nature which requires it to jump will always be difficult – hardly rocket science, is it? But how many times have you had a bet, readily giving up your hard earned pounds and Euros, without having any idea how well your horse jumps an obstacle?
Recognisable Form
There are times when maiden hurdles will have to be left alone owing to a lack of recognisable form over hurdles. In a 10 runner field, you could have 3 point-to-point recruits, 2 flat recruits, a couple of bumper horses making their debuts and a couple of rags making up the field. For me, I want to see the majority of the field with runs over hurdles to their name – because that is where most winners of maiden hurdles come from.
The good thing is, most maiden hurdles are structured nicely, with the majority having quantifiable form over hurdles.
Below are stats relating to the types of maiden hurdle winners in Great Britain over the last 5 years, in relation to the number of runners with such a profile:
122/1437 – Flat Horses 1st time out – 8.4%
1064/10791 – Horses with hurdle form – 9.8%
184/2584 – NH Flat debutantes – 7.1%
240/3863 – Unraced, PTP or Imports on debut – 6.2%
As you can see from the extensive data which stems from the above, the majority of maiden hurdles are won by horses who raced over hurdles in the UK or Ireland last time out.
Granted, the majority of horses in maiden hurdles have such a profile, but it is significant that the percentage of winners within that type of horse is appreciably higher in proportion to the others.
During seasonal transition period, it is worth being a little more discerning with the races you involve yourself with, as summer horses begin to encounter softer ground or become regressive, over-the-top etc – and horses with questionable fitness return from breaks. But often such instances can work to your advantage if there is a clear favourite worth taking on whose form could be worth taking a view against.
Naturally, there will be bumper horses and flat recruits or those from the pointing field in most races – often well fancied to run well. Invariably though, I either cross these out, or where they hail from respected stables that are known for producing such a stamp of horse to good effect in these races, simply mark them down as a danger as part of the shortlist and use their presence as a means to find a value bet later on when assessing the prices on offer.
The important thing is established hurdles form – If you you’ve never seen your selection jumping, you’re immediately on the back foot, assuming that it just will – this is not often the case.
The Importance Of Seeing It Through
Stamina. Many a flat recruit enter the jumping fray, and their potential pitfalls for a punter first time out over 2m+ and facing 8 or 9 hurdles are two fold – jumping, as usual, AND stamina. Obviously you’ll have 1m4f-1m6f and stayers on the flat and they will stay, but will they both stay and jump? Who knows, are you willing to part with your hard-earned without knowing as much as possible? I’m not.
You have remarkable horses like Our Conor who is essentially a modest 1m-1m2f horse on the flat, who is outstandingly good over 2m and 8 or 9 hurdles. Then you will find others with higher flat ratings, who have won over 1m4f-6f on that flat, who simply don’t have the stamina and latent ability to translate that to what is a whole new discipline.
I visited Oliver Sherwood’s yard recently and asked him what he thought about staying flat horses not staying over jumps and supposed milers excelling over national trips, he said: “It all comes down to the heart and the guts. Some horses (like Our Conor) have the heart and natural resilience to excel when pushed further. It doesn’t just come down to whether or not a horse stays, but what they’re wanting to give when new challenges are put in front of them.”
Point to point horses have all ran and often ran well over 3m in those races, and indeed jumped fences – but do they have the residual class to get home over two miles or a little further, in a proper horse race, under rules, with far better quality horses competing at a stronger pace? Are they sharp enough over slightly smaller obstacles to apply themselves to winning effect first time out? More often than not, the answer is no on both counts.
Stamina is hugely important. Watch out for horses who have run well over further and not quite gotten home, that are dropping back in trip.
Be very wary of horses who are being stepped up in trip. A strong favourite who has been running really well over 2m, who is suddenly upped 4f or 6f under the assumption that it will suit, is often vulnerable. If you’re back such a horse, you are immediately assuming something, rather than knowing it.
Granted, in some instances, you can be fairly sure a horse will stay – its running style or breeding will clearly suggest it is likely it will stay, and in tandem with assessing the weight of the opposition and the prices on offer, you can determine whether or not it is worth taking the risk.
But all told, look for a horse that has proven it can see out the distance of a race.
Narrowing The Field
There are a few ways to narrow a field into a manageable shortlist. From there, you can apply other things like speed figures (see below section on “Topspeed” ratings), trainer form, ability to stay, the jockey, the track and ground suitability, etc.
In maiden races, there will invariably be horses who have run over hurdles and shown nothing. Beaten a mile and unlikely to improve sufficiently to figure. It is worth checking the price they went off in those runs, to see how the market assessed their chance – more often than not they’ll have been un-fancied and run accordingly. Other times they’ll be from bigger yards/owners and will have been relatively fancied – in which case it could be worth double checking the run for excuses or other signs of ability.
Generally, cross out flat recruits first time out. Look at their form on the level to see what distances and ground they operated over. This is very useful. These horses, well rated flat types from big yards do win maiden hurdles first time, but quite often they are over-bet and of no value. Winners on the flat in Ireland also carry over a weight penalty to jumping races – which is an immediate hindrance to their chance, so it is worth noting when this occurs.
Point to pointers and bumper horses – if they haven’t run over hurdles, we want to take them on. Keep obvious dangers in your shortlist for reference to price and assessing market value later on (A Willie Mullins trained French import, a Gigginstown Stud pointing recruit, etc), and disregard other who are un-fancied with poorer profiles.
Once the above three type of horse have been crossed out, you should have at least half or more of the field off your radar. To further reduce the burden, you can then apply other questions to the remaining.
Note: Try not to automatically gravitate toward fancied horses, the horses left all command your attention and a natural inclination or even an instinct should be adopted which makes you want to take on short priced horses and get them beat. Only by finding horses that have been underestimated slightly by odds compilers can you hope to make a profit over a sustained period of time.
Will this horse like the ground?
Is the distance suitable, will the horse stay?
…..Race comments with the associated form are handy for this. Terms like “weakened” will clearly suggest a horse hasn’t seen out its race. Ask yourself why? If it was a good quality race and the horse jumped well and was little too keen early – then maybe it can improve next time and is well worth forgiving a weak finish.
But often it means the horse doesn’t stay or doesn’t have the heart to finish off its race – avoid like the plague. It is all about putting things into context.
Is the course suitable? A horse who has finished 2nd but clocked a poor time on a sharp track could suddenly find themselves on a galloping track with more pace in the race and be favourite for the race – are they worth taking on with these vastly different conditions? Probably, but equally it could suit them. Find out, watch the race – did their racing style suggest they were wanting to go faster, or did they travel well throughout? Are they physically athletic and lean, or are they big and burly, suggesting a galloping track would suit more?
Is the trainer in form – or do they do pretty well with maiden runners and/or at the track? And have you got a good jockey on board? – Over time you’ll have jockeys you do and don’t like – a horse is often only as good as the pilot riding it. Watch out for talented apprentices taking off handy allowances.
Knowing When To Bet
An important factor, and I’m the World’s worst for breaking the rules I set myself! Often during a good run I will take my eye off the ball and bet for the sake of betting, or brazenly start backing better fancied horses just because I’m on a roll and assume that they’ve got a better chance than they actually have.
If you’re considering a race and finding it more difficult than is comfortable to find a bet from your shortlist having narrowed the field – just move on to the next race.
Likewise, if there are too many un-raced horses in the field, or unknown factors, just leave it well alone. These are races you want to watch with a view to future races and investments.
As you’ll notice from Tips Den entries, I often back E/w to double stakes from 5/2 upwards for a single fancied horse – we always want 8 or more runners in a field, which is rarely an issue in these races. This will be where I feel a horse has a very good chance of being in the frame. To put it another way, I feel this horse will not be beaten by three horses or more. If you can be sure to the best of your ability that you’ve acquired a value bet to this effect, it stands to reasonable reason that over time, the winners will fall into place and profits can be made – slowly but surely.
There are other instances where we take a view against the top 3-5 in the market. Ponderables, questionables, prices not being right, along with the inclusion or a few suitable dark horses at bigger prices, means we can back two horses against the market. In a field of around 12 or more horses, I have no problem whatsoever on splitting a double stake bet on a maiden by backing two horses at bigger prices.
For example, if a single horse is advised E/w to double stakes (2pts, 1pt E/w) at the base price of 5/2, and it is placed, we return 1.5pts (75% of stake) and we move on to the next bet. Likewise, if we back to horses at 0.5pts E/w on each, and one places at 10/1, we return that same 1.5pts. Sometimes you’ll lose the 2pts, but on occasions the horse will place, or both will place or as a rare treat, one will win and the other place.
The key thing is knowing when to bet, and when to leave alone. And instead of thinking about the immediate result, think in terms of the week, the month, the year. Rushing leads to poor decisions, impatience and ill-discipline – and all three lead to us losing our money.
SPEED FIGURES
I Find that Topspeed ratings, compiled by Dave Edwards and produced by The Racing Post online and newspaper, provide the ideal platform to contradict and refer against RPR/Official ratings and gain an edge when trying to break down your shortlist into a final selection. Topspeed (TS) use RP standard times along with ground conditions and other factors to produce a figure that represents the horses speed rating for each run – Essentially expressing how fast a horse is and was in a single figure. In general, the closer the TS figure is to the RPR figure, the more reliable the form might be.
The RPR figure is invariably bigger than the TS and horses that match or better their RPR are scarce in comparison to the amount of horses.TS figures are not to be used as a stand-alone way of making selections, nor any other ratings you may wish to use (I also use more statistically generated ratings from “RatingTheRaces” (@RTR_Official).
Before the use of speed ratings can become useful and even profitable, you must have established a good knowledge of the race or races and horses you target.
TS figures are at their most accurate at well rounded distances. 5f,6f,1m,1m2f,1m4f on the Flat and 2m,2m4f and 3m over Jumps have always appeared to the easiest distances to read. Having said that it’s easy enough to interpret them at most courses and distances.
Here is an imaginary 14 runner Maiden or even Novice Hurdle, in Ireland lets say, that I have peeled down to 5 possible winners through interpretation of the form and other variables mentioned above. It’s what I feel is a typical example of what I’m after when looking for a selection in these races. So each horse will have the RPR and TS for its latest run. We’ll also include the likely odds they might be in a real race market.
Horse A: RPR- 132 TS- 60…3/1
Horse B: RPR- 131 TS- 82…6/4
Horse C: RPR- 119 TS- 118…6/1
Horse D: RPR- 122 TS- 98…4/1
Horse E: RPR- 108 TS- 96…10/1
Now, where does the value lie when taking those ratings and prices at face value? I’ll try to elaborate on my thought process…
What should be immediately obvious is A and B have the strongest official level of form with respective RPRs of 132 and 131, and they are priced accordingly at the head of my market.
Out of those two, you’d have to side with horse B at 6/4 with the TS of 82 over A’s 60 – at face value remember, without factoring in any form, distance, ground etc.
So now my next challenge is to find something to beat it and we’ll assume horse A isn’t suitable for an each way smash at 3/1 and the value must lie elsewhere.
Let’s talk about horses D and E. Closely matched on TS figures but a full stone, 14lbs, apart on RPR ratings. I would generally feel, form depending, that 4/1 is the better bet here. If horse E however, at 10/1, had run well in or won a race which had produced subsequent winners to boost the form and undermine the low RPR since the race, then it could make it value to beat D if its form is questionable – you get the gist.
Horse C has the 2nd lowest level of official form on RPR of 119, but has produced easily the best TS figure on 118 – which is close enough to 119 to suggest it was truly ran race and an accurate speed figure as such. But he’s 6/1 which would be seen by many as a touch skinny considering he’s rated 13lbs below horse A to RPR and is 3/1.
It’s not skinny to me though. 6/1 would certainly represent the value in most cases, particularly in maiden and novice hurdles, where the ability of a young horse is more open to suggestion than more experiences horses.
These “Overlay” ratings cement the point somewhat, in terms of the assessment of the fictional speed ratings pinpointing where the value lies from the odds available:
A: 132 (4.0) £3.53 28.29% 0.13
B: 131 (2.5) £3.65 27.37% -0.32
C: 119 (7.0) £6.05 16.54% 0.16 = Highest overlay rating…C
D: 122 (5.0) £5.20 19.22% -0.04
E: 108 (11.0) £14.55 6.87% -0.24
It is important to note that a slowly ran race will often produce high RPR to represent the “true” form and class of the race regardless of the time, but a false TS which will be very low. It is in these circumstances that you have be cute and try to identify the true worth of the form as it is unfair to suggest that the horses that ran well in the race aren’t capable of producing a better TS, just as its unfair to suggest the RPR is too high.
Two answers here really: 1) The form has to stand the test of time and produce solid winners and placed efforts since the run. 2) Also, it is easy to look back at the horses previous figures to get a truer picture of its ability. If there are too many questions to answer, the only answer is to move onto the next suitable looking race for investment.
I hope the above will help with your betting in maiden hurdles, but many of the points raised apply to novice hurdles and maiden races on the flat, and even racing in general. I really do like to keep things simple. I’m not a stat guru, a mathematician and or a man bursting with Uni degrees and brains. So I’ve tried to utilise what information I can comfortably digest to best effect.
Any feedback – get at me on Twitter @KOM_GGRacing, or email [email protected]. I also wrote for GG.COM, a “Value Series” published recently with four parts and stacks of nice, simple ways to improve your approach to betting. Visit the GG.COM Features Section and scroll down to find all four parts.
Also if you’re new to the Tips Den, visit this link to the first post, which will give you some background and details as to what it is all about –
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