Just four runners go to post for the feature race on the opening day of the Cheltenham November meeting, and they’ll all be looking to add their name to the recent list of winners of the race, which includes:
- Put The Kettle on (2019)
- Eldorado Allen (2020)
- Third Time Lucki (2021)
- Banbridge (2022)
GG editor Tom Aldridge previews this years race, before giving his verdict on who he expects to come out on top.
Last year’s renewal saw Joseph Patrick O’Brien’s BANBRIDGE put in a flawless display to run out a comfortable six-length winner over Tommy’s Oscar (2nd), with third-placed Sole Pretender a further six lengths behind:
Key Race Trends
- 9/10 winners had already raced over fences before.
- 8/10 winners had already won over fences before.
- 9/10 winners were aged 5 or 6.
- 9/10 winners were trained in Britain.
- 4/10 winners were sent off as favourite.
- Each of the last three winners won their chase debut last time out.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. Homme Public
(Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero/Henry Brooke)
The Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerreiro yard are on fire of late, and they will be fairly confident of Homme Public’s chances in this after his pleasing chase debut at Wetherby last month. The 6YO ran off top weight but still beat some more experienced rivals relatively comfortably, despite a slightly shaky jump over the last fence. He should come on for the run and he’s 3/4 over this trip, although he is 0/2 at Cheltenham. I do fear he’s better on good ground though, with only one win from four runs on soft ground, so I’m not sure he’ll appreciate the likely soft ground here. He’s a classy horse, and this could all come down to how well he handles the underfoot conditions.
2. JPR One
(Joe Tizzard/Brendan Powell)
Joe Tizzard’s JPR One made the perfect start to his chase career when running out a comfortable winner last month on chase debut, beating one who had already won over fences in the process. He only had the two races over hurdles last season after a fairly solid novice season in 21/22, where he was within a neck of Datsalrightgino here on just his second start. That form looks rock solid when you consider that one is now a Grade 2 winner over fences, and his form on soft or worse ground reads 151, so we know he’ll handle conditions. He’s a deserved favourite in my eyes and I think he’s the one they need to beat.
3. Mighty Tom
(Cian Collins/Danny Gilligan)
Mighty Tom only managed three wins over hurdles, but he made a pleasing start over fences earlier this month and he shaped like he will be a much better chaser than he was a hurdler. He only found the impressive Letsbeclearaboutit too good on chase debut, and that rival placed in a Grade 1 over hurdles and had already won over fences, so that wasn’t a bad performance. He also had Senecia well behind in third, who was unlucky not to win a Grade 3 the time before, so the form looks pretty strong. I feel connections are hoping this will be an easier assignment than what he would face in Ireland, but his trainer doesn’t have the greatest record when sending horses to the UK, particular at Cheltenham where he’s 0/4. He’s certainly in with a chance, but I think he’ll need a career best performance to win this.
4. Petit Tonnere
(Jonjo O’Neill/Jonjo O’Neill Jr)
Petite Tonnere will need to buck the trend of having a previous run over fences – nine of the last ten winners had at least one run over fences before, and although he won on seasonal debut in 2022, he failed to win any of his other six races over hurdles. The one chance I would give him is that this is his trip, having won three of his five races over this trip, but he has been well beaten on his last two efforts over this trip. He doesn’t have race fitness on his side, and this is a fairly warm race to make your chase debut in, so I’m happy to take him on.
Big-Race Verdict
I don’t fancy Petite Tonnere for this, so I see it as a three horse race. Homme Public would be much more interesting if the ground was on the better side, and I’m willing to take him on with it being soft ground, and I’m also happy to take on Mighty Tom, who will need to step up from his chase debut at a course his trainer doesn’t have the best record with. The one I have to side with is JPR ONE, who looked tailor made for fences when winning comfortably on chase debut last month. He handles soft ground, has run well at Cheltenham previously and he looks the most solid option to take this. Colin Tizzard won this in 2020 with Eldorado Allen, and I think JPR One can give son Joe Tizzard a first win in the race, before going on to bigger targets this season.
SELECTION: JPR One (win – 15/8 generally)
*Odds Correct At Time Of Writing – 12.35pm Wednesday 15th November*
Check out this weeks Weekend Watch podcast, where Andrew Mount, Dave Young & Kate Tracey guide us through the six ITV races on Saturday, including four of the key races from the Cheltenham card:
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