The Atalanta Stakes is the first of two Group 3 races on the Sandown card on Saturday, and it’s a race that has been notoriously hard to predict in recent years. Three of the last four winners won at double-figure odds, whilst there has also been four winning favourites from the last nine renewals!
Last year saw master trainer Sir Michael Stoute cement his status as the most successful trainer in the history of the race, with Potapova giving him a record sixth victory. The mare returns this year in a bid to follow up, but faces a tough challenge from the likes of Sandringham Stakes winner Coppice and the Dick Hern Stakes winner Heredia.
GG editor Dan Corbally previews the race, identifying the key trends for the race, before running through the runners and giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal went the way of Sir Michael Stoute’s POTAPOVA, who was a shock 18/1 winner but won going away under Richard Kingscote:
Key Trends
- 8/13 winners were aged 3
- 10/13 winners were rated 100+
- 10/13 winners had won over 8 furlongs
- Sir Michael Stoute has won the race six times since the turn of the century
- 3/13 winners had won a Group race previously
Runner-By-Runner Guide
1. HEREDIA
(Richard Hannon/Sean Levey)
Talented filly looked as good as ever when drawing clear in the Dick Hern Stakes at Haydock last time out. That was her return to the mile after a pro-longed six & seven furlong trip experiment and she was gaining her first win in Listed company, her most previous success coming at the Royal meeting at Ascot, again over a mile, taking the Sandringham. May need to find a touch more for win purposes but it’s certainly not ruled given she back on the up and is versatile ground wise.
2. POTAPOVA
(Sir Michael Stoute/Ryan Moore)
Scooped this prize last year at a huge 18/1 but went off the boil soon after. This season’s form figures raise the alarm slightly, pulled-up on return before finishing 5th of 6 in a Group 3 at Epsom. Her latest effort was more encouraging when midfield in the Duke Of Cambridge at Ascot and while this was likely the aim there are question marks.
3. PURPLEPAY
(William Haggas/Tom Marquand)
Very expensive purchase who hasn’t been able to fulfil her early promise totally. Landed a Group 2 in France soon after tranferring to William Haggas’ yard but hasn’t score since. Went close at Listed level the last twice, latterly behind today’s rival, Heredia. Looks to act best with some give underfoot but may need one or two of these to falter to get involved.
4. ROMAN MIST
(Archie Watson/Oisin Murphy)
Honest and consistent mare who always seems to run to a mark of around 100. Ran very well on her latest start to take runner-up honours behind Random Harvest in the Valiant Stakes. That bare form won’t be enough to get the job done today however and she looks up against it in this field.
5. COPPICE
(John & Thady Gosden/Kieran Shoemark)
An intriguing contender and another winner of the Sandringham Handicap at Royal Ascot. Came up short (5th of 8) in a well-contested Falmouth Stakes Group 1 on her latest attempt, the form of which has since been franked at Group 1 level by the first three home. Gets weight from the older horse being a three-year-old and looks capable of better still having only had five career starts to date.
6. MIDNIGHT MILE
(Richard Fahey/Oisin Orr)
Smart juvenile, taking a group 3 before a very respectable fourth in the breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf. Tried over middle distances thus far in her three-year-old campaign, landing a fourth in the Musidora behind Soul Sister and taking a Listed race at York. This trip however could unlock even more improvement, given how stylishly she travelled last time out before being outstayed she could yet have more to offer in a test like this. No ground worries & she’s not a forlorn hope.
7. MYSTERIOUS LOVE
(David Menuisier/Rossa Ryan)
Had three runs in France as a juvenile before a blow-out on seasonal debut this year, correct that in no uncertain terms when skidding in to shed the maiden tag and land a punt three runs back. Has since found life in pattern company more testing, needs to overcome the form of her last run (behind Roman Mist) and the suspicion is she may be ridden to pick up the pieces and nab some blacktype.
8. NIBRAS ANGEL
(Ismail Mohammed/Benoit De La Sayette)
Clearly well-regarded by connections, given a Group 1 entry soon after her debut win. Still green when following-up at Thirsk last time out, jinking when asked for effort but sealing the race well. Went through that race with plenty of zest and still saw it out well over seven furlongs, so a good pace to aim at over this mile may even help her settle better. A huge step up here against this calibre of opponent but looks above average and where her ceiling lies is yet to be determined.
9. NOVUS
(Gary Moore/Tom Queally)
Another improving filly who overcame considerable adversity to score on her latest start in handicap company at the Glorious Goodwood festival on testing ground. Has ground to find with Coppice on their Sandringham meeting and now meet at level weights. May still have more to come but on the balance of probabilities she’ll struggle today.
10. QUEEN FOR YOU
(John & Thady Gosden/Robert Havlin)
Looks second string of the Gosden pair but is similarly unexposed having had only four starts thus far. Finished five lengths behind Midnight Mile over 10 furlongs at York, before which she was 5th of 6 in the Coronation Stakes. The return to a mile looks the best move but she needs much more to feature.
Big-Race Verdict
COPPICE (7/2) looks the play at what looks a very attractive price at the time of writing. She’s in form and looks to be going from strength-to-strength at the moment, with her Sandringham Stakes success still fresh in the memory, she could be a cut above this level in time. Heredia is another who arrvies in great form nad is respected, while Potapova is no back number to defend her crown, but neither of those would take second preference, with that spot reserved for the unexposed Nibras Angel (16/1)
SELECTION: COPPICE (7/2)
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