The Ayr Gold Cup is Scotland’s biggest flat race, and this weekend’s renewal promises to be as competitive as ever. With twenty-five runners set to go to post, and everything from draw, weight, ground, and form to consider, our trends expert has delved through some of the recent renewals of the Ayr Gold Cup – producing their in-depth trends which include a big race verdict.
Check this out below, which comes alongside an exclusive bet365 offer, which provides new customers with up to £100 in bet credits.
Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup Handicap (Ayr, 3:40pm, Saturday, September 18th)
LAST TEN WINNERS
2020 – Nahaarr – (William Haggas, Tom Marquand)
2019 – Angel Alexander – (Tom Dascombe, Richard Kingscote)
2018 – Baron Bolt – (Paul Cole, Cameron Noble) / Son Of Rest – (Fozzy Stack, Chris Hayes)
2017 – Donjuan Triumphant (Andrew Balding, P J McDonald)
2017 renewal held at Haydock
2016 – Brando (Kevin Ryan, Tom Eaves)
2015 – Don’t Touch (Richard Fahey, Tony Hamilton)
2014 – Louis The Pious (David O’Meara, James Doyle)
2013 – Highland Colori (Andrew Balding, Oisin Murphy)
2012 – Captain Ramius (Kevin Ryan, Pat Smullen)
2011 – Our Jonathon (Kevin Ryan, Franny Norton)
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KEY STATS AND TRENDS
Age:
The last eleven winners were all aged between three and six. Horses aged seven or older are 0-38 during that period, albeit seven-year-olds have finished second in each of the last two renewals.
Form:
Eight winners since 2011 had finished in the first four on their previous start. Seven winners during that time had won at least one of their last three starts (63%).
Runs:
No firm conclusions can be drawn with horses with as few as four runs, and as many as 35, winning the last ten renewals. There has certainly been a shift towards less exposed runners in recent years, however, with six of the last seven winners having had 20 or fewer starts.
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Draw:
2017 renewal aside (run at Haydock) horses drawn in stalls 1-7 are without a win in the last ten years.
Rating:
The last eleven winners all held a triple-figure official rating, with nine of those rated between 100-105.
Class:
Removing Irish raider Son Of Rest, eight winners had already gained a victory in Class 2 handicap company. One of the two exceptions was Brando, who had twice been beaten less than a length in Class 2 handicaps and was coming into the race on the back of runs in Group company.
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Running style:
Seven of the last eleven winners were either midfield or held up when landing the Ayr Gold Cup. Those racing prominently are dangerous to completely discount though, with Angel Alexander (2019) leading a small group up the stand side when scoring.
Days since last run:
Nahaarr was returning from 48-days off the track when landing this contest last year, but a shorter absence is usually favoured with the average in the last ten years being 26-days. Three winners were returning from exactly five weeks off the track.
Headgear:
Seven winners were without headgear. Baron Bolt (cheekpieces), Son Of Rest (blinkers) and Donjuan Triumphant (hood) were exceptions. Louis The Pious was fitted with a first-time visor when landing the race in 2014.
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BIG RACE VERDICT
Essentially, we are looking for a horse aged six or younger with a triple-figure rating.
That stat alone removes all but nine runners.
To narrow this down further, we remove those drawn in one of the first seven stalls, and horses that weren’t in the top four on their most recent start.
This produces just four horses. Namely, Edraak, Just Frank, Popmaster and Sunday Sovereign.
Edraak and Just Frank are both yet to win a Class 2 handicap, so get removed.
Interestingly, both remaining runners are down to wear headgear, so that trend cannot be used, and they have won last time out, so both fit into the ‘won one of last three starts’ stat.
As a result, both can be put up here – but if you were looking for an angle into favouring one runner over the other, Sunday Sovereign has had 28-days off the track – just two shy of the average in the last ten renewals, whilst Popmaster has been off for only two weeks.
AYR GOLD CUP TRENDS PICKS
POPMASTER – 12/1
SUNDAY SOVEREIGN – 25/1
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