This weekend sees the 35th running of the Breeders Cup held this year at Santa Anita. With 14 fiercely competitive races being staged over two nights it can pay to be selective and betting industry veteran and US racing expert Graham Rossiter (@theacejudge) has identified 5 bets that look good value at the current odds.
DECORATED INVADER (Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, Friday 8.52pm)
Aidan O’Brien bids for a 5th victory in this race since 2011 and his main hope is Arizona who steps up to eight furlongs for the first time. I feel he is flattered by the bare form in the Dewhurst Stakes having led towards the favoured stands’ rail and this race may not pan out so ideally having been dealt a wide draw in 12, so at around 2/1 I am happy to take him on.
Decorated Invader has won two of his three starts looking a very talented colt in the process. He comfortably landed the Grade 1 Summer Stakes at Woodbine last time winning in the manner of a juvenile who has lots more improvement to come. Nicely berthed for a stalking trip in stall four and with the assistance of Irad Ortiz Jr, he makes plenty of appeal around the 5/1 mark.
BELLAFINA (Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, Saturday 6.55pm)
This three-year-old filly drops down in distance having been asked to stretch out to eight furlongs for most of her career. With several confirmed frontrunners this race should set up perfectly for her if she can stay within striking distance and her stamina could come in to play down the stretch. Returning to a track where she boasts a perfect four wins from four starts, Bellafina rates a solid each-way play. Come Dancing has improved with every run this season and of the market leaders is feared the most.
CASTLE LADY (Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mares Turf, Saturday 8.54pm)
French 1000 Guineas winner Castle Lady looks to have been massively underrated by the market here with odds of around 20/1 available. She was having only her fifth career start when she finished a very good second on her U.S debut in a G1 at Keeneland in October. The Shamardal filly has stayed in the States since that run and has reportedly looked good in the mornings since shipping to Santa Anita. While there is a slight stamina doubt as she tackles ten furlongs for the first time, there must be every chance that a career-best is on the horizon considering she made her debut only in March. She looks certain to outrun her odds.
GOT STORMY (Breeders’ Cup Mile, Saturday 10.20pm)
Mark Casse’s four-year-old filly looks the one to side with here having shown tons of improvement throughout the Summer. She was ultra impressive in the Grade 1 Fourstardave handicap at Saratoga where she broke the track record before suffering a reverse on her latest start in the Woodbine mile. I feel the one-turn mile and long straight at Woodbine caught her out late on after she had travelled like the winner for much of the journey. Now returned to a sharper test with the two urns at Santa Anita playing to her strengths, she will have too many gears for Circus Maximus and co.
ARKLOW (Breeders’ Cup Turf, Saturday 11.40am
A remarkably consistent turf performer who belied odds of 100/1 to finish 4th (admittedly well beaten) behind Enable and Magical in this event 12 months ago. Brad Cox’s five-year-old is coming off the biggest win of his career when winning the G1 Joe Hirsch at Belmont despite a wide trip for much of the contest. He certainly hasn’t got the likes of Enable to worry about this time around and in a race more open than the market suggests, Arklow is worth siding with each-way.