Newmarket’s Cesarewitch Handicap is one of the longest-standing races in the calendar having been incepted back in 1839. A field of 34 runners go to post for this year’s renewal and with countless variables to consider when making your Cesarewitch selection, our trends expert aims to narrow down the field by using his in-depth race trends.
Check these out below, alongside an exclusive offer from Betway, who are providing new customers with a £10 matched deposit.
Together For Racing International Cesarewitch Handicap (Newmarket, 3:35pm, Saturday October 9th)
LAST TEN WINNERS
2020 Great White Shark – (Willie Mullins, Jason Watson)
2019 Stratum – (Willie Mullins, Jason Watson)
2018 Low Sun – (Willie Mullins, Seamie Heffernan)
2017 Withhold – (Roger Charlton, Silvestre De Sousa)
2016 Sweet Selection – (Hughie Morrison, Silvestre De Sousa)
2015 Grumeti – (Alan King, Adam Beschizza)
2014 Big Easy – (Philip Hobbs, Tom Queally)
2013 Scatter Dice – (Mark Johnston, Silvestre De Sousa)
2012 Aaim To Prosper – (Brian Meehan, Kieren Fallon)
2011 Never Can Tell – (Jamie Osborne, Frankie Dettori)
JOIN BETWAY HERE AND GET A £10 MATCHED DEPOSIT BONUS
KEY STATS AND TRENDS
Age:
No strong age trend with 4yo-8yo winners in the last ten renewals. 3yos have a fairly poor recent record yet there is no representative from that age group. There are six runners in this aged 8 or older, however, and runners from that demographic are just 1-29 (albeit that winner came at odds of 66/1). 9yos are 0-12 in the last ten renewals.
Form:
The last ten Cesarewitch winners had finished in the first 6 on their latest start. Winning form has proven important in recent renewals, with each of the last five winners scoring in one of their last three starts.
Runs:
Seven of the last ten winners had 15 or fewer flat runs prior to landing the Cesarewitch – the exceptions had 17, 28 and 37 runs prior to their respective victories.
JOIN BETWAY HERE AND GET A £10 MATCHED DEPOSIT BONUS
Draw:
On the face of it there is little bias regarding the draw, with horses berthed in anything from 1 – 36 winning in the last ten years. In recent renewals there has been a shift towards those drawn wider, however, with the last six winners all drawn in a double-figure stall – eight placed horses from 60 single-digit stall runners during that same period.
Rating:
Horses rated in the mid-to-high 80s have dominated in the Cesarewitch recently, with seven of the last ten winners rated 84-89 (five rated 86, 87 or 88). Two of the three exceptions held a triple figure rating, with those rated in the 90s just 1-16-147 during that time.
Stamina:
Understandably for a race run over a taxing 2m2f proven stamina counts for plenty. Nine of the last ten winners had won over at least 2m, with three of the last seven winning hurdlers over at least 2m7f. The stamina anomaly was 2013 winner Scatter Dice, who had yet to win beyond an extended 1m4f, albeit just two of her previous 28 career starts had come over 2m or further.
JOIN BETWAY HERE AND GET A £10 MATCHED DEPOSIT BONUS
Running style:
Despite the large field it pays to race relatively prominently in the Cesarewitch. Nine of the last ten winners raced no worse than mid-division with Scatter Dice (2013) the only horse to win from a hold-up ride.
Days since last run:
Eight of the last ten winners had raced in the last 45 days, with six winners during that time running in the last 29 days. Grumeti had been off the track for almost three months prior to his 2015 victory, but the average gap between races is just 37 days.
Headgear:
Six of the last ten winners wore no headgear when landing the Cesarewitch. For those that did, cheekpieces were by far the most popular option – three winners wore them when winning. Scatter Dice is the exception to the rule having been fitted with a first-time visor (didn’t wear any form of headgear in any of her previous 28 starts).
Unsure stayers can be fitted with a hood to help them see out the trip, yet runners in that headgear are 0-14 in this race in the last ten years. That 14-runner list includes Quick Jack (5/1f in 2014) and Stratum (who won the race a year later with the headgear removed).
JOIN BETWAY HERE AND GET A £10 MATCHED DEPOSIT BONUS
BIG RACE VERDICT
The 34-runner field can be chopped down by excluding any horse aged 8 or older, and any horse that failed to finish in the first 6 on their last run.
Next, we remove runners yet to win over at least 2m, and any horse who hadn’t raced in at least the last 45 days.
All of a sudden, our list becomes just 10.
Two of these can be removed on account of being berthed in single-figure stalls, and that includes Goobinator – who wears a hood.
In keeping with the recent trend toward less exposed horses we remove those with 16 or more flat runs and those that hadn’t won at least one of their last three starts.
Our list now becomes just four; Let Me Be, Burning Victory, Spanish Kiss and Live Your Dream.
With just one winner rated in the 90s, both Burning Victory and Spanish Kiss are dismissed – leaving only Let Me Be and Live Your Dream.
It could be argued that Let Me Be is a stronger trends fit being rated 87 (five of the last ten winners rated 86, 87 or 88), but higher-rated horses have done well in recent renewals and somewhat interestingly Live Your Dream (101-rated) wears cheekpieces, something that three of the last seven winners also did.
At odds of 50/1 and 14/1 respectively, both can be backed at split stakes or waiting to see if any horse is held up could help identify a perfect trends fit.
CESAREWITCH TRENDS PICKS
LIVE YOUR DREAM – 14/1
LET ME BE – 50/1
Join Betway Here And Claim Up To £10 As A Matched Deposit
New UK customers only. Min Deposit: £10. First deposit matched up to £10. 1 x wagering at odds of 1.75+ to unlock Free Bet. Debit Card & PayPal deposits only. This offer is valid for 7 days from your new account being registered. Terms apply