The second of four Group 1’s on the card gives the Fillies and Mares a chance to test their credentials and land one of the feature 1m4f prizes for the season. It is a field that might be lacking in some real Group 1 class performers, but there could easily be one or two that come out of it stamping their authority in this Group 1 field.
In what is Frankie Dettori’s last Champions Weekend, he rides the current market leader Free Wind, as he looks to leave Ascot on a high by claiming his seventh win in the race.
GG editor Jake Russell previews this years race, picking out some interesting trends for the race, identifying the key runners and lively outsiders to look out for, before giving his expert verdict on who he expects to win.
Last year’s renewal saw John & Thady Gosden’s EMILY UPJOHN run out a cosy three length winner, giving jockey Frankie Dettori a third win from the last seven renewals (his sixth winner overall in the race for the Italian):
Key Trends
- 9 of the last 12 winners were aged 3, 3 of the last 12 winners were aged 4 or older.
- 4 of the last 12 winners were favourites/joint favourites, 9 of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.
- 6 of the last 12 winners won on their last run, 8 of the last 12 winners had their last run within the last 37 days.
- 5 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Ascot, 1 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win at Ascot.
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 12 furlongs, 7 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 previous win over 12 furlongs.
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 5 previous flat runs, 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 previous flat wins.
- 11 of the last 12 winners had a rating of 108+.
- 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 1 win in a group 1-3 race.
- 12 of the last 12 winners had at least 3 runs that season, 12 of the last 12 winners had a previous win that season, 9 of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous wins that season.
Key Runners
2. Free Wind
(John & Thady Gosden/Frankie Dettori)
Frankie and the Gosdens have combined to land this race on three separate occasions in the past, with the likes of Journey (2016), Star Catcher (2019) and Emily Upjohn (2022) – So they are a combo that know how to land a race of this nature. Frankie has also won this race on six different occasions, so it is a race he clearly knows what it takes to land, and his ride here is the joint highest rated in the field and will probably handle the expected conditions.
She is somewhat a little way off being a top class Group 1 performer, however she was pitched into the Arc last time, being Frankie’s last ever ride in the race, so connections must think there is talent in there. We are just yet to see it at Group 1 level.
She is a multiple time Group 2 winner, and on her day looks all of a Group 1 performer, but she is yet to show that. Her best opportunity to land a Group 1 was in the Yorkshire Oaks in August, and she did look like she would be the most likely winner, however she just didn’t want to go through with it, only beaten by a head in the end.
The one huge thing that plays to her favour is the fact she races against her own sex again, and with no Warm Heart in the race this year (Warm Heart beat her in the Yorkshire Oaks) She could finally land her Group 1. However there has only been one 5yo winner in the past (Crystal Capella in 2010) and it very much is a race that suits the younger horses, with 8 of the last 10 winners all being 3yo’s.
12. Jackie Oh
(Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
Aidan O’Brien has only won this race two times in the past, with Hydrangea in 2017 and Magical in 2018, both of them ridden by Ryan Moore. Aidan’s daughter of Galileo does seem to fit the bill to land a race of this nature. As mentioned in Free Wind’s write up, this race very much suits the younger improving types, and I think Jackie Oh does fit the bill.
She is the joint highest rated in the field, with the rating of 114, and has been slowly progressing through the ranks. Winning a Group 3 at Gowran Park a few months back before coming 2nd in a Group 2 at the Curragh and a Group 1 on Arc weekend. She was only just beaten by Blue Rose Cen a neck, and was probably a shade unlucky that day, because if the race was a furlong or two longer she might have battled back to get back up again close to the line, as she was staying on in the closing stages. She tackles the 1mf4 trip for the very first time, which can either play to her strengths or not, however she is an improving sort, and I think this trip will bring more improvement out of her.
With all the previous statistics of the race, they very much suit Jackie Oh down to the ground. And speaking of the ground, the expected softer conditions will suit as she has form on heavy and soft going. I think she could land her group 1 here, as all seems to play into her favour.
7. Time Lock
(Harry & Roger Charlton/William Buick)
Although this race seems to mainly suit the 3yo’s, there have been a few previous 4yo winners to come out of this race, most recently Journey in 2016. Harry and Roger Charlton have had somewhat of a disappointing season with just 34 winners for them so far, arguably their stable star has been Time Lock, who arrives into this race off the back of two wins in a row.
Beaten as a short priced favourite on her first start, she did look disappointing in her next three runs after that, however the last two efforts have been a lot more like it for the daughter of Frankel. She seems to be getting better with age, winning the Listed Grand Prix de Craon in France at the start of September, before hacking up in the Group 3 Princess Royal Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Stakes at Newmarket. That was by far a career best, earning her a new rating of 112, which is her highest to date. She was held up at the rear of the field throughout before going on to win readily, by just over 4 lengths. That was on much better ground conditions, and her runs on softer conditions do give a cause for concern, however she is in the form of her life. With 2x Champion Jockey William Buick booked to ride, that is a very decent jockey booking.
Lively Outsiders
8. Bluestocking
(Ralph Beckett/Rossa Ryan)
Ralph Beckett has had a fine season this term, with plenty of nice types coming out for the next few seasons ahead, and he saddled Simple Verse to victory in 2015 renewal of this event, with Andrea Atzeni aboard that day. The yard could have a decent contender in this years renewal of the race, in the form of their daughter of Camelot Bluestocking.
She hasn’t finished out the first four in her career to date, and she was third in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot, before finishing a gutsy runner-up in the Irish Oaks at the curragh earlier on in the season. Beaten that day by a stronger stayer in Savethelastdance, the Ralph Beckett mount could get similar conditions at Ascot on Saturday, which could very much see her back to her best. Beaten at odds-on in Listed company at Chester last time out, in a race she was probably expected to win, the winner that day Al Qareem has since won a Group 3 at Ascot over 1m6f.
She will need to improve on that effort at Chester and show she wants to finish off her races, as she does look a little weak in the finish, having been outbattled on a few occasions this season. But the slower ground and bigger field could see her back to her best this weekend, and she could be one at a double figure price that could feature.
12. Running Lion
(John & Thady Gosden/Oisin Murphy)
Although she is a little way off the main runners in the market, she does get a fair bit of weight from the older runners. She has come on well this season, and there is a piece of form from Newmarket earlier on in the season that does catch my eye. The Gosden filly ran out a very impressive 4 length winner of the Listed Howden Pretty Polly Stakes with Sumo Sam in behind, who has since landed two Group 2 contest on soft conditions, looking as if she has improved a fair bit since they met.
Running Lion disappointed when finishing last of 15 in the Prix de Diane Longines, but has since come 2nd and 3rd in a Listed and Group 3 contest. She would have to improve a fair bit to land a contest of this nature, but she encounters softer conditions for the first time since her Listed Newmarket win. I think she could outrun her huge odds on Saturday and get in the placings.
Big-Race Verdict
As mentioned this race does suit the younger horses, and I just think Free Wind lacks the improvement that some of these might do to land the race. Although it is Frankie’s last ride in this race, so she will be tuned up and ready to go come Saturday. That being said I think Jackie Oh has the perfect profile to improve and take a race of this nature. She has come on leaps and bounds with each run, and her 2nd in France last time out in a Group 1 shows she could still be improving. The step up to 1m4f looks like it will suit, and she has some previous form on the softer going. She is the one to side with for me, and stats show she could be the one to land this.
I would be taking a little chance with Running Lion, but I feel there is a little more improvement to come from her, and that form at Newmarket is decent. She could improve and run well at very decent odds.
SELECTION: JACKIE OH (Win – 4/1 generally) & RUNNING LION (E/W – 20/1 generally)
*odds correct at time of posting – 3.20pm Thursday 19th October
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