In part two of our Festival Trends Guide, Andrew Mount breaks down the main stats for the Neptune, the RSA, the Champion Chase and the Bumper. If you want to narrow your field right down to the key contenders, and take on board some tips too, this is essential reading.
1.30 – Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle
Recent Winners
Year / Horse / Age / SP/ Last-time out form
2014 / Faugheen / 6-4f / 6yo / WON (Grade 3)
2013 / The New One / 7-2 / 5yo / 2nd by a neck (Grade 2)
2012 / Simonsig / 2-1f / 6yo / WON (Class 2)
2011 / First Lieutenant / 7-1 / 6yo / WON (Grade 1)
2010 / Peddlers Cross / 7-1 / 5yo / WON (Grade 2)
Summary
Four of the five won last-time out, with the exception (The New One) beaten by a neck under a less-than-inspired ride.
All were aged five or six
All started at single-figure odds
2.05 – RSA Chase
Recent Winners
Year / Horse / Age / SP/ Last-time out form / Ran in last year’s Albert Bartlett?
2014 / O’Faolins Boy / 7yo / 12-1 / WON Grade 2 / Yes (4th 16-1)
2013 / Lord Windermere / 7yo / 8-1 / 3rd (beaten by half a length in Grade 1) / No
2012 / Bobs Worth / 7yo / 9-2 / 2nd Grade 2 / Yes (WON 15-8f)
2011 / Bostons Angel / 7yo / 16-1 / WON Grade 1 / Yes (pulled up, 50-1)
2010 / Weapons Amnesty / 7yo / 10-1 / 2nd (Grade 1) / Yes (WON 8-1)
Summary
All five were aged seven
Four of the five ran in the Albert Bartlett at the previous season’s festival, two of them winning it
All ran well in a Class 1 contest on their most recent outing Last term, six of the 15 runners were stepping up in class and all of them lost (13-2, 10-1, 12-1, 16-1, 20-1 and 100-1).
[Very Wood]() caused a 33-1 surprise when sporting first-time cheekpieces in last year’s Albert Bartlett and he was wearing that headgear for the first time over fences when successful in a Grade 2 at Navan last time. The presence of a couple of pulled-ups in his form figures is of some concern but those came during the winter months and he’s best judged on his record from mid-February until the end of October, which reads: 1111611 (6-7). Apache Jack, a stablemate of Very Wood, ran third at 20-1 on last season’s Albert Bartlett. However, he could only finish a distant fifth to the same rival at Navan last time.
Selection: Very Wood
3.20 – Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase
Year / Horse / Age / SP / Prep race
2014 / Sire De Grugy / 8yo / 11-4f / WON (Grade 1)
2013 / Sprinter Sacre / 7yo / 1-4f / WON (Grade 1)
2012 / Finian’s Rainbow / 9yo / 4-1 / 2nd (Grade 1)
2011 / Sizing Europe / 9yo / 10-1 / 3rd (Grade 2)
2010 / Big Zeb / 9yo / 10-1 / WON (Grade 2)
Summary
All five winners prepped in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest, with three of them winning.
All five winners were aged between seven and nine
With last year’s winner Sire De Grugy (prepped in a handicap) and 2013 scorer Sprinter Sacre having well documented problems this term the way could be open for Dodging Bullets. Since fitted with a tongue tie, he’s won two Grade 1 contests, and looks a much-improved horse this term.
Champagne Fever’s excellent festival record makes him the obvious danger – his three runs have seen him win the Champion Bumper at 16-1 in 2012, take the Supreme at 5-1 from [My Tent Or Yours]() the following year and finish second by a head in last season’s Arkle (11-4jf).
Shortlist: Dodging Bullets, Champagne Fever
5.15 – Wetherbys Champion Bumper
Year / Horse / Age / SP / Bumper form
2014 / Silver Concorde / 6yo / 16-1 / 1
2013 / Briar Hill / 5yo / 25-1 / 1
2012 / Champagne Fever / 5yo / 16-1 / 21
2011 / Cheltenian / 5yo / 14-1 / 21
2010 / Cue Card / 4yo / 40-1 / 1
Summary
All five winners landed a bumper on their most recent outing
Four of the five started as favourite when winning last-time out, three of them at odds-on
All were priced at 14-1 or bigger