With the Cheltenham Festival less than a week away, GG’s analyst Jordan Arksey has delved into the Festival archives and highlighted the key trends to bear in mind when picking your day two selections. Check these out below, alongside an exclusive bet365 offer where you can get £50 in Free Bets when you bet £10.
Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle
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Age
This race in recent seasons has been dominated by six-year-olds with Bob Olinger becoming the eighth successive winner from that age group in last year’s renewal. The New One (2013) was the last five-year-old to taste success in the Ballymore, whilst you have to go all the way back to 1998 for the last and only seven-year-old winner French Holly, who landed the spoils for trainer Ferdy Murphy.
Starting Price
The market often speaks volumes when it comes to this particular contest, with three out of the last four winners justifying favouritism. Punters have generally been on top in the Ballymore with only Ben Pauling’s Willoughby Court (2017) obliging at a double-figure price in the past decade.
GB vs Ireland
This race has gone the way of the visitors in seven of the last eight runnings with the Irish occupying the first two positions last season as well as the 1-2-3 in 2020. Trainer Willie Mullins leads the way with four victories in this event but hasn’t landed this prize since Yorkhill powered up the Cheltenham hill back in 2016.
Form Guide
Form in the book at Grade 1 level has proven to be a useful trend when identifying the winner of the Ballymore, with four of the last six winners claiming a victory at the top level prior to lining up at the Festival. Unbeaten hurdlers have won five of the last eight renewals whilst Massini’s Maguire (2007) was the last winner of the Ballymore to finish outside the top two on his previous start.
Punters beware, Challow Hurdle winners are yet to taste success in the Ballymore from eighteen previous attempts, which doesn’t bode well for supporters of the Paul Nicholls-trained Stage Star.
Ballymore Verdict
Sir Gerhard will likely be all the rage in the betting but would be only the second winner of the Ballymore at the age of seven and is taken on with Gordon Elliot’s THREE STRIPE LIFE, who has been crying out for a step up in trip all season given he is related to 2m4f-3mile winners. Although second behind Willie Mullins’ Grade 1 winner last time out, he represents a yard that has won two of the last four renewals, is currently a single-figure price, and fits the ideal age bracket.
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Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase
Age
Monkfish claimed the prize last year and in doing so become the sixteenth seven-year-old to triumph in this particular contest since the year 2000. Nicky Henderson’s duo, Champ (2020) and Might Bite (2017) were successful as eight-year-olds in recent times, whilst five and six-year-old winners in this event have been hard to come by with only Star de Mohaison (2006) and Don Poli (2015) obliging for that age bracket since the turn of the 21st century.
Starting Price
Winners of the Brown Advisory have often been well found in the market with four winning favourites in the last decade, with only the Rebecca Curtis-trained O’Faolains Boy (2017) coming home in front at a double-figure starting price.
GB vs Ireland
Victory for Monkfish last season gave trainer Willie Mullins a record fifth win in the contest and a seventh overall win for Ireland since 2008. However, the Irish yards haven’t had it all their own way in this event, with the British trained runners matching their recent record with seven winners as well.
Form Guide
Recent from counts for a lot with nine of the last ten winners posting a top-three finish prior to lining up in the Brown Advisory. The only exception is Champ (2020) who fell before resuming winning ways at the Festival, whilst six of the last ten winners had previously landed a win over fences in Graded company.
Course/Festival Experience
Previous course form is always a useful angle for any punter but it’s particularly significant when it comes to this novices’ contest with thirteen of the last fifteen winners having previously run at Cheltenham. Of those thirteen Brown Advisory winners, eight had already tasted success at Prestbury Park, including last year’s winner Monkfish who claimed the Albert Bartlett back in 2020.
Brown Advisory Verdict
Much will depend on where the “big three” end up, but at this stage, it looks as though Bob Olinger will be heading to the Turners on Thursday, which could leave a blockbuster matchup between Galopin Des Champs and BRAVEMANSGAME with the vote going to Paul Nicholls’ unbeaten chaser who certainly fits the mould and meets the criteria and can provide Britain with another famous win in this contest.
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Coral Cup Hurdle
Age
Horses between the ages of five and seven have seemingly held sway in the Coral Cup, winning seven of the last ten renewals. Son Of Flicka (2012) and Diamond King (2016) were both successful at the age of eight, whilst William Henry (2019) took home the prize for Nicky Henderson at the age of nine.
Favourites
The battle between bookmaker and punter always ensures highs and lows on both sides of the betting ring at Cheltenham across the four days, but this contest has not been the kindest to market leaders, with only the well-supported Dame De Compaigne (2020) coming home in front for favourite backers in the last ten seasons.
GB vs Ireland
Nicky Henderson has been the trainer to follow in recent times in the Coral Cup, landing the prize four times since 2010. Jockey Davy Russell has also enjoyed his fair share of success in this contest, leading the way with three winners – his last victory coming aboard Diamond King in 2016. Overall, it’s 6-4 in favour of Britain in the last ten runnings.
Ratings
Traditionally this has been won by horses rated no higher than 150, with seven of the last ten winners officially rated between 138 and 149. The only recent exceptions to this trend are the Nicky Henderson-trained duo William Henry, (151) Whisper (153) and Donald McCain’s 2012 winner Son Of Flicka (135).
32 days
An interesting stat to note and one many punters should be aware of, nine of the last ten winners of the Coral Cup came into the race fresh and had not made a racecourse appearance within 32 days of the Festival. So watch out for those runners that have been saved for the big occasion
Unexposed
Identifying a lightly raced individual has proven to be profitable in the Coral Cup Hurdle with only one winner in the last decade having more than nine starts over timber, and that was William Henry (2019) who was winning on just his tenth start over the smaller obstacles as a nine-year-old.
Course/Festival Experience
Only three winners in the last ten seasons have triumphed without previous course experience, and out of the seven winners that had previously run at Cheltenham, three had experienced the Festival atmosphere in the past including last year’s hero Heaven Help Us who had run in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle as a six-year-old.
Coral Cup Verdict
A fiercely competitive handicap and one of the toughest races to call of the entire week, however, one runner that meets all the necessary requirements is Dan Skelton’s UNEXPECTED PARTY, who remains lightly raced, has previously finished second over course and distance, and ticks the boxes in the age and rating categories.
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Queen Mother Champion Chase
Age
Eight of the last ten winners have been aged between seven and nine with only two ten-year-olds successful in that time, those coming in consecutive seasons with a superb performance from Sprinter Sacre in 2016 before Special Tiara tasted success the following year with a determined performance.
Starting Price
This has been a race to focus on the top end of the betting as only Special Tiara (2017) delivered for supporters at a double-figure price. Favourites have won four of the last ten renewals but have suffered back to back odds-on defeats the last two seasons, including last year’s leading fancy Chacun Pour Soi who eventually finished third at 8/13f.
GB vs Ireland
Britain has a tremendous record in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, with champion trainers Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson winning the contest a record-equalling six times each. Of the Irish contingent, Henry De Bromhead landed a second win in five seasons in this event last year as Put Kettle On took the prize back across the Irish Sea. It stands at 8-2 to the hosts in recent times.
Arkle Form
Although the key trials earlier in the season such as the Tingle Creek and Clarence House Chase warrant consideration, the key angle to note in this event for punters is previous Cheltenham Festival form. In the last ten seasons, four horses had previously won the Arkle the year before, including last year’s Irish winner Put The Kettle On who joined Sizing Europe (2011), Sprinter Sacre (2013) and Altior (2018) in completing the famous double.
Queen Mother Champion Chase Verdict
It’s hard to see beyond SHISHKIN who should reward favourite backers and maintain his unbeaten record over fences, Nicky Henderson’s unbeaten superstar was too good for Energumene when the pair clashed in the Clarence House and can follow in the footsteps of the great Henderson pair Sprinter Sacre and Altior in winning the Arkle and Champion Chase in back to back years.
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Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
Age
Horses between the ages of eight and ten have been the ones to follow in this unique contest. Tiger Roll returned to the banks in 2021 and impressively struck at that age of eleven, whilst the youngest horse to stride to success was French raider Easysland who defeated the aforementioned Gigginstown runner at the age of six back in 2020.
Starting Price
Despite only two winning favourites in the last ten seasons, the market has generally had this race spot on with only Rivage D’Or (2015) and Big Shu (2013) returning a double-figure price.
GB vs Ireland
Ireland has dominated in this event with the ‘king of the banks’ Enda Bolger responsible for five winners since the race was first established back in 2005. Only Philip Hobbs’ Balthazar King (2012 & 2014) has triumphed for Britain, whilst France had their first winner of the Cross Country in 2019 with Easysland. Seven of the last ten winners have been trained in Ireland and that run will likely continue this year.
Chase Experience Counts
The Cross Country poses a unique test for all who lineup and with 32 obstacles to negotiate, it’s vital to identify the established jumping performers come post time. Eight of the last ten winners had at least thirteen chase starts, so pay close attention to those with plenty of experience over the larger obstacles as the Cross Country course provides a thorough and stern jumping test.
Key Race
As previously stated, Ireland has had a stranglehold on this event for quite some time but one informative contest in Ireland has steered many in the right direction of the future Cross Country winner. The P.P Hogan Memorial Cross Country Chase at Punchestown has remarkably provided four winners and five runners up in recent history and served up a titanic tussle between the Edna Bolger pair Midnight Maestro and Shady Operator this season, with the former prevailing by a neck.
Cross Country Verdict
Tiger Roll will look to bow out with a fourth win in this contest and whilst many will expect him to get the job done once more, he’s very short in the betting and has failed to fire on his last few starts. Enda Bolger is often the man for the occasion in this contest and little will separate Midnight Maestro and SHADY OPERATOR, however, the nine-year-old gets the vote to reverse the form from their recent encounter at Punchestown and with the market speaking volumes for him in recent weeks, he looks the one to side with.
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Grand Annual Handicap Chase
Age
Sky Pirate became the fourth winning eight-year-old in the last ten runnings of the Grand Annual last season, whilst seven and nine-year-olds have usually performed well in this event, combining for four victories also. Croco Bay became just the third twelve-year-old to come home in front, with Paul Nicholls responsible for the youngest recent winner of the contest with Solar Impulse landing the prize as a six-year-old back in 2016.
Starting Price
Aside from Alderwood (2013) and Chosen Mate (2020), this has been a race to avoid for favourite backers with some long-priced runners obliging in recent memory, including the Ben Case trained veteran Croco Bay who gamely saw off all rivals in 2019 at 66-1. There is definitely value to be had when making your picks for the Grand Annual as double-figure priced runners have been responsible for seven of the last ten winners.
GB vs Ireland
There’s not much to separate the pair in this contest with Britain just holding a slight advantage in the last ten years with a 6-4 advantage. Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the Grand Annual a record four times and has landed two of those victories in the past six seasons.
Form
Last time out form doesn’t count for an awful lot in this Grade 3 handicap with only Bellvano (2012) and the well-backed Chosen Mate (2020) winning on their previous start before lining up at the Festival. However, nine of the last ten winners finished inside in the top three on one of their last two starts before lining up.
Ratings/Weight
Eight of the last ten winners have had an official mark between 138 and 147, only 2018 winner Le Prezien (150) and last year’s winner Sky Pirate (152) have scored from higher marks. Paul Nicholls’ Le Prezien is also the only runner in the past decade that has carried more than 11-6 to victory, running out a dominant and authoritative winner under 11-8.
Owner
The most successful owner in the history of The Cheltenham Festival, JP McManus has enjoyed plenty of success throughout the years at the four-day spectacular and in particular, this very race, having owned four winners and being responsible for ten runners who have placed. The owner was represented last year by the well-backed Entoucas who just couldn’t overhaul Sky Pirate, going down by a short-head at the line.
Festival Form
Although this seems to be the case for the majority of the contests across the four days, previous Festival form is a leading angle when determining who to support in each race. The festival atmosphere is certainly not for every runner and most can boil over before the race has even begun. Punters take note, seven of the last ten winners of the Grand Annual had run at a Festival before and sometimes that useful experience can be the difference between winning and losing.
Grand Annual Verdict
Plenty to consider in this wide-open affair with the likes of Brave Seasca and Ciel De Neige commanding respect given their respective profiles, however, a lack of course form for Venetia Williams charge and a lofty rating for JP McManus’ runner sees them opposed this time around. The pair to concentrate on with plenty of boxes ticked are Buddy Rich and THYME WHITE with a preference for the Nicholls runner given the current value in price. The Somerset handler has been bullish about the chances of Thyme White in recent weeks and has clearly had this race in mind for some time for his six-year-old. Connections have preserved his mark of 142 after a fluent Doncaster success and their patience can be rewarded on the biggest stage.
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Weatherbys Champion Bumper
Age
Five and six-year-olds have yet to be beaten in the last ten renewals of the Champion bumper with the last four-year-old winner coming back in 2010 when Cue Card bounded clear up the Cheltenham hill.
Starting Price/Favourites
Let’s start with the favourites, there have only been two winning favourites in the past ten runnings of this contest and favourite backers suffered a defeat in last seasons contest when the odds-on favourite Kilcruit couldn’t reach stablemate, Sir Gerhard. However, the winner on that occasion was well found in the market given his top connections and returned just 85-40.
The top yards often have more than one runner lining up in the Champion Bumper and it can often be difficult for punters to identify the “first string” with Champagne Fever (2012), Briar Hill (2013), Relegate (2018) and Ferny Hollow (2020) all obliging at double-figure prices when apparently playing second or third fiddle to their more fancied stablemates.
GB vs Ireland
Quite simply a one-horse race when it comes to this particular event, the Irish have simply dominated in recent times with only British trainers David Pipe and Nigel-Twiston Davies breaking the trend in the 2015 and 2016 renditions. As is often the case, the most successful trainer in Cheltenham Festival history, Willie Mullins remains the man to side with in this concluding Day 2 race with a staggering eleven wins in this contest since the first race back in 1992. The trainer managed to land consecutive 1-2 finishes in 2021 and 2020 and was responsible for four of the first five home in the 2018 season.
Weatherbys Champion Bumper Verdict
The two at the top of the betting are hard to split and it will take a smart performance from one of the others to take this contest. American Mike has done nothing wrong in two starts for Gordon Elliot and is clearly a smart prospect. However, the ‘wow’ factor surely can be provided by FACILE VEGA who blew everyone away when landing Grade 2 honours at Leopardstown when last seen and despite the slight concern around the stables other potential runners, Facile Vega appears to be an exceptional talent and a frightening prospect going forward for connections. The five-year-old is difficult to oppose in his bid to remain unbeaten and can give Willie Mullins a twelfth win in the Champion Bumper.
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