In the latest instalment of our Cheltenham Festival preview series, Rory Delargy (@helynsar) takes an in-depth look at the Arkle and outlines just why he fancies a 20/1 shot to spring a surprise
Overview
The key race in terms of the pecking order for the Arkle betting is the Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novices’ Chase at the recent Dublin Racing Festival. Winner Notebook shades favouritism from runner-up Cash Back, with last-minute withdrawal Fakir D’Oudairies on the drift with the yielding ground deemed unsuitable for him.
Analysis
NOTEBOOK’S lack of black-type success over hurdles is historically seen as a weak trait. I prefer to judge by chasing performance, and Notebook has left nothing unanswered, his jumping looking flawless, even for one from a stable renowned for the quality of its schooling, and while that has been the main feature of his pair of Grade 1 wins to date, the fact that he has had to cope with other prominent racers in contests run in sharp fractions means that any class flaw would have been exposed by now.
It’s possible for a horse to achieve a smart form figure while running much slower on the clock, but that hasn’t been the case with Notebook, with all four wins over fences being backed up by high-class times, notably when he was harried all the way by Fakir D’Oudairies at Christmas. Notebook then showed that he doesn’t need to dominate when taking a lead from Cash Back at Leopardstown, and he held the latter’s rally well.
CASH BACK had made all to win both previous starts over fences in non-graded events, and was below form when behind Notebook on the only time the pair clashed over hurdles. He has an unusual profile in that his debut for Willie Mullins came last March having been off for over 500 days since leaving Yohann Gourraud.
Mullins has a remarkable record in the Arkle; having failed to register a place until Champagne Fever’s second in 2014, he’s since sent just five runners to the race, and four have won. Expect Cash Back to be the stable’s only representative, but I’m not sure we can expect him to progress past Notebook, and only Un de Sceaux has made all since Anaglogs Daughter in 1980.
FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES is a Grade 2 winner over hurdles, and also took the Grade 1 Drinmore on his second chase start, but he was receiving 7lb when beaten by Notebook, and gets no allowance here. He is respected, but stays further, and may be aimed at the Marsh (where he would get 1lb due to vagaries of the Weight-For-Age scale).
BACK FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES AT 6/1 HERE
BREWIN’UPASTORM was ahead of Notebook in the Ballymore, and has won over fences at Carlisle and Taunton. Two small-field wins in non-graded company is not an ideal CV for an Arkle candidate, however, and the setback which saw him ruled out of the Kingmaker means his current odds look skinny, without factoring in that he could run in the Marsh.
BACK BREWIN’UPASTORM AT 10/1 HERE
GLOBAL CITIZEN was well beaten by Brewin’upastorm at Carlisle before winning the Grade 2 Wayward Lad at Kempton in a faster comparative time than the Desert Orchid Chase on the same card. He’s a free-going front runner who has done all his winning on flat tracks, though, and was tailed off at Cheltenham last year. He makes little appeal.
BACK GLOBAL CITIZEN AT 16/1 HERE
ESPRIT DU LARGE won three in the autumn culminating in the Grade 1 Henry VIII at Sandown. That was seen as a shock at the time, but his win over Nube Negra is backed up by a smart time – just 0.6sec slower than Defi du Seuil’s Tingle Creek on the same card – and the notion that he must go right-handed is supposition. His most impressive effort over hurdles was at Uttoxeter, and the fact that his chase runs have come at right-handed tracks is coincidental.
BACK ESPRIT DU LARGE AT 20/1 HERE
Maire Banrigh and Mister Fisher make some appeal at the prices, the latter at 12/1 with a run (SkyBet) definitely tempting after his Lightning win at Doncaster.
BACK MISTER FISHER AT 20/1 HERE
Conclusion
Notebook is a solid favourite, but the Evan Williams-trained Esprit du Large is clearly under-rated by the betting. His trainer is bound to sound dejected about his chances if asked, but Evan would make Captain Tim Forster sound like Timmy Mallett, and you must ignore his apparent gloominess.
Rory Delargy’s best bet
ESPRIT DU LARGE 20/1 Generally