In the latest of GG’s Cheltenham Festival previews, Andrew Mount (@trendhorses) analyses the main contenders in the Ballymore Novice Hurdle and gives us his latest Cheltenham tips
KEY STATS/TRENDS
The last ten winners were aged five (x2) or six (x8). Horses aged seven or older were 0-20, although most were big prices and four of them finished second.
Eight of the last ten winners won their prep race, the other two finished second.
The main contenders – ENVOI ALLEN
Unbeaten in seven starts under Rules and heads the betting at around the 5-4 mark.
Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old had to dig deep to deny Blue Sari in last season’s Champion Bumper and he also showed a determined attitude to get the better of Abacadabras in the Grade 1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle at Fairyhouse in December. He made it three from three over hurdles with comfortably landing odds of 1-4 at Naas last time and the only thing wrong with him is the price.
It’s not easy to make the transition from maiden hurdle winner to Grade 1 hurdle winner in a single step yet Asterion Forlonge did just that when slamming Easywork by nine and half a lengths in the Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival.
He too is unbeaten – in four starts if we include his point-to-point outing – and he handled the left-handed Leopardstown course well enough despite jumping out to his right on occasions, as he had done at Naas the time before.
He was allowed to do his own thing in front at Leopardstown but it was still impressive to put so much distance between himself and the runner-up at the line.
BACK ASTERION FORLONGE AT 8/1 HERE
Impressed on his hurdles debut at Exeter in November, arriving late and wide to deny Harry Senior on a track that was favouring prominent racers who hugged the inside rail.
He maintained his unbeaten record with an impressive success at Ascot last Saturday (15 February). On the downside, he has yet to contest at Class 1 hurdle and a prep run on bottomless ground just 25 days before this race might not be ideal.
BACK SPORTING JOHN AT 8/1 HERE
THE BIG BREAKAWAY
Won his sole point-to-point start and is unbeaten in two hurdles races, a Chepstow maiden and Newbury novice. The form of his latest win was let down by the runner-up and he steps up from Class 4 level.
BACK THE BIG BREAKAWAY AT 10/1 HERE
Represents the same connections as Asterion Forlonge and he hacked up form the front when odds-on for a maiden hurdle at Naas last time. In the past ten years, runners stepping up from maiden company have recorded form figures of 0485694P49P (0-11), suggesting he could struggle to make an impact here.
BACK THE BIG GETAWAY AT 12/1 HERE
Finished third to Envoi Allen in the Champion Bumper and has since gone three from three over hurdles, with the latest victory coming in the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle at Newbury.
In the last ten years, Ballymore runners who had their final prep race in the Challow have form figures of 26242 (0-5). Challow winners don’t have the greatest record when bidding to complete the double but Reve De Sivola traded at 1.13 in running when second to Peddlers Cross in the 2010 Ballymore, having won the Challow earlier that season and I wouldn’t let that angle put me off.
Played second fiddle to Sporting John and Edwardstone before opening his hurdles account in a Chepstow maiden. He stayed on strongly to score in Grade 2 company on Trials day but he looks more likely to go for the Albert Bartlett unless the ground is very testing.
BACK HARRY SENIOR AT 20/1 HERE
Faced some stiff tasks since scoring by five lengths in a 25-runner Fairyhouse maiden hurdle in November. The steady early gallop was against him when a 17-length fourth to Asterion Forlonge at Leopardstown and it was the same story when fourth of six behind Envoi Allen on his penultimate start. A big field/strong pace scenario could see him keep on into the frame and he makes some each-way appeal at around the 100-1 mark. In the past few years we’ve had top four finishes from plenty of big-priced horses…
2019 Bright Forecast 3rd 25-1
2018 Scarpeta 4th 33-1 (beaten by a neck for 3rd), 50-1, 33-1
2017 Burbank 4th 50-1
2016 Its’afreebee 3rd 33-1, Bello Conti 4th 20-1
Conclusion
Envoi Allen is hard to knock but this race is deeper than the current betting suggests and the unbeaten ASTERION FORLONGE, available at 8-1 at the time of writing, makes more appeal.
Sporting John lacks Class 1 hurdles form but he too looks most progressive and could upset the favourite. Thyme Hill is another solid each-way alternative, while Conflated will be worth chancing at huge odds if taking on his stablemate Envoi Allen.
Andrew Mount’s best bets
ASTERION FORLONGE 8/1 WILLIAM HILL
CONFLATED 100/1 each-way BET365