In the latest of GG’s Cheltenham Festival previews, Rory Delargy (@Helynsar) analyses the main contenders in the County Hurdle and gives us his Cheltenham tips
Key Trends:
15 of the last 17 were either novices or second-season hurdlers
Course winners do poorly compared to other Festival races (2 wins since 1991)
Six of the last 10 winners have been rated 138 or 139, and 13 of last 15 rated 139 or lower
Handicap debutants have a poor record – no winners since 1993
A previous placed effort at the Festival has been a negative
Analysis
Plenty of those entered are also engaged in either the Coral Cup and/or the Martin Pipe, and that makes this tricky, although we are looking on the whole for a lightly raced and in-form hurdler, who is probably only now blossoming, and wouldn’t have been a contender at previous Festivals, which will help him/her to get a rating of close to, but not more than 139.
Of course, this is just an identikit picture of a typical County winner, and we have to accept that recent winners Arctic Fire and Ch’tibello have broken a few rules between them. Given a list of 26 runners, I’d be inclined to ignore a few rules as well, but I’ve got a list of 99 entries, and most of those won’t have handicap marks until Wednesday.
In the immortal words of Edmund Blackadder: “needs must when the devil vomits into your kettle”.
If there’s one aspect likely to shape the outcome of the County Hurdle this year that would not normally be in play, it’s the apparent lack of quality of the Champion Hurdle, and the chances of horses rated 154 or higher as big players here is offset by the likelihood of anything rated so high, and considered well handicapped would surely be as well being tried in Tuesday’s Grade 1 contest. In truth, that doesn’t help, merely bringing in a tranche of lower-rated horses for consideration.
Trying to narrow the field using the strongest trends is only partially successful, and while it’s worth pointing out that Willie Mullins and Harry Skelton have dominated this race in recent years, the pair are responsible for the first five in the betting, so another angle is needed.
One angle which does look promising is backing horses who have been unplaced at a previous Cheltenham Festival.
In the last decade five winners of this race had run here at a previous Festival or more without making the frame, from 84 runners, and backing such runners blind has produced a profit of £638 to a £10 stake at Betfair SP.
Of those to have failed before, I’d expect to see improvement since to consider support, and that narrows the contenders much more than most methods. There are still a few on that shortlist, of which Canardier is very interesting on his debut for Willie Mullins, but he’s at least as likely to go to over further, while the same comments also apply to Nicky Henderson’s unexposed Rathhill, who is streets better than he showed on his handicap bow at Down Royal, and has the look of a potential plot. Henderson has a strong hand all told, with Lust For Glory an eyecatcher when second here on Trials Day.
It’s another of the Seven Barrows brigade which catches my eye most, however, and while Elusive Belle could finish no closer than 14th in the mares’ novice here a year ago, she has run two excellent races this year, namely when third to Epatante at Newbury in November, when Henderson went on record as saying he thought she was the better prospect than the winner, and then when second to Miranda at Kempton over Christmas.
The third horse that day bolted up on his next start, while Miranda ran well against a pace bias in the Scottish County Hurdle on her next start. Elusive Belle will be 10lb better off for a four-length beating at Kempton, although it’s possible that both could run either at Doncaster on Saturday and/or in the Imperial Cup between now and then. Neither holds any alternative engagements at Cheltenham, and both appeal, albeit with Elusive Belle the pick of the weights as things stand.
BACK ELUSIVE BELLE AT 33/1 HERE
Rory Delargy’s Selection
Elusive Belle @ 33/1 (general)
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