In the latest of GG’s Cheltenham Festival previews, Ryan Summerfield (@ryanOTHx) has taken a look at the mares’ novice hurdle and offers the latest of our Cheltenham tips
Overview
The most recent addition to the Festival is the Mares Novices’ Hurdle, with every single renewal going to Ireland’s champion trainer Willie Mullins.
The first three runnings of the race were brilliant for punters, with Limini, Let’s Dance and Laurina going in at odds of 8/11, 11/8 and 4/7. However, last year put a blot on the favourite’s copybook with 50/1 outsider Eglantine du Seuil providing Noel Fehily with a happy retirement.
There doesn’t seem to be a standout this year and with the likes of Marie’s Rock and Gypsy Island already being ruled out, so there could be another shock. Let’s take a look at the key contenders
Incredibly, Floressa and Silver Forever are the only British-trained runners currently shorter than 25/1 in the betting. Both have solid chances and come from the same form lines, having ran against each other twice already.
They’ve since taken different paths, with Floressa attempting to take on Lady Buttons but losing. Silver Forever went to Sandown and won a Listed race impressively but she requires a real test of stamina and she may find the race a bit sharp if the ground was to turn up on the good side.
BACK SILVER FOREVER AT 14/1 HERE
Timetochill is only priced up by a few firms but she may take her chance. Her trainer, Kelly Morgan, has a good record at Cheltenham with Top Wood placing in the Foxhunters at 50/1 and 33/1 over the last two seasons. Timetochill won a few weaker races earlier in the season and she didn’t finish that far behind Floressa at Doncaster, who is a fraction of Timetochill’s price.
With Willie Mullins’ record, it’s no surprise he is the trainer with most runners prominent in the betting and he has five horses shorter than 20/1 in the market.
It’s hard to work out who is the stable number one as Lamarckise arrived with a big reputation but wasn’t as impressive as people had hoped on her first run, while Dolcita disappointed last time out.
This horse has the the same connections as superstar Honeysuckle. She’s unbeaten over obstacles and has only ever been beaten in Graded bumpers. Her victory last time out was proof that she has the tactical pace for a slightly shorter trip and once stamina came into play she put the race to bed, beating Dolcita.
BACK MINELLA MELODY AT 3/1 HERE
Jeremy’s Flame has form connected to Floressa and Silver Forever but improved since to chase home Fiddlerontheroof in the Grade 1 Tolworth. She did disappoint in a handicap next time but finished lame. If she returns to her previous form she would have a chance.
BACK JEREMY’S FLAME AT 16/1 HERE
Santa Rossa was one of the best bumper horses last season, running out an impressive winner of the Grade 2 Mares’ Bumper at Leopardstown and performing well in Graded bumpers against the likes of Master Debonair, McFabulous, Abacadabras and Thebannerkingrebel.
That’s turned into some serious form over hurdles and if she can replicate that that, she’ll run better than a 20/1 shot in March. She needed her first run of the season and if she wins this weekend, her odds will shorten given her previous form.
CONCLUSION
I’d be surprised if this race didn’t go to Ireland once again, but there is plenty of value among the horses at bigger prices.
SANTA ROSSA was top class in bumpers, finishing 5 lengths behind the 149-rated Abacadabaras in a Grade 1. If she can transfer that ability over hurdles then she should prove up to being Graded class and she’s a big enough price to take a chance on.
If she was to take her chance, TIMETOCHILL wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world at 40/1. Her trainer has a record of delivering with outsiders at the Festival and there’s plenty of non-runners ahead of her in the market currently
RYAN SUMMERFIELD’S BEST BETS
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