In the latest instalment of GG’s Cheltenham Festival tips and previews, Andrew Mount (@trendhorses) analyses the key contenders in the Marsh Novices’ Chase
Key stats and trends
This will be the tenth running of this 2m4f novices’ chase and the seventh as a Grade 1 contest.
All nine previous winners were aged six or seven.
Seven of the nine winners won their prep race, the exceptions finished second (Noble Prince in 2011) and fell (Black Hercules in 2016).
Those who arrived at Cheltenham after a relatively recent outing (within six weeks) won just twice from 52 runners for a loss of £42.00 to a £1 level stake.
Horses coming back from a break of at least six weeks won seven times from 39 runners for a profit of £9.00.
Since the race was elevated to Grade 1 status all six winners contested a Graded chase on their latest outing. Those that didn’t were 0-17.
Backing last-time out Graded winners, aged six or seven, would have found seven winners from 18 bets for a profit of £29.00.
Those who had run at the Cheltenham festival previously recorded form figures of 321211121611 (7-12) for a profit of £35.00.
MAIN CONTENDERS
He raised the roof when landing the Flogas Novice Chase at Leopardstown on his latest outing and there won’t be a dry eye in the house – certainly not among the bookmakers anyway – if the sprightly 12-year-old follows up here.
He’s won 17 of his 25 career starts, including at the Cheltenham festival in 2014 (Neptune) and 2015 (Champion Hurdle). He’s tasted defeat at the last two festivals but he didn’t take to first-time cheekpieces when sixth in the 2018 Champion Hurdle and three miles was too far in last year’s Stayers’ Hurdle.
He still didn’t convince with his jumping at Leopardstown and I’m happy to pass him over on age grounds, despite the Leopardstown win.
Cut back to two miles to land the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase at Doncaster last time, having scored comfortably over the Marsh course and distance on his penultimate start. The Cheltenham form was let down when runner-up Good Boy Bobby was well beaten in the Scilly Isles at Sandown.
There is also a doubt about his effectiveness at the spring festivals – he finished 13th at Aintree in 2018 and eighth at last year’s Cheltenham festival (Triumph Hurdle) before an unplaced effort when favourite for the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in May.
His record in the winter months stands at 211211 (4-6), improving to 1111 (4-4) outside of his seasonal debuts.
BACK MISTER FISHER AT 8/1 HERE
He never saw a rival when romping home by 21 lengths at Fairyhouse last time but that was a non-Graded contest and he started as the 2-5 favourite.
Arrived late to grab third when 25-1 for last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle before disappointing at Aintree when let down by his jumping. He had nothing to beat at Leicester on his chase debut and surprised a few people with his 7-1 Scilly Isles success at Sandown. Defi De Seuil did the Scilly Isles/Marsh double last year.
Was well backed when taking on Santini and Bristol De Mai in the Cotswold Chase but was never travelling and eventually pulled up. He landed the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase over three miles at Kempton the time before but some of his best form has come over shorter trips and he’d be very interesting if missing the RSA in favour of this contest.
Chased home Itchy Feet at Sandown last time and has prospects of reversing the form on a track he likes. He took advantage of Champ’s late departure to land the Grade 2 Dipper Novices’ Chase over course and distance on his penultimate start and can usually be relied upon to run his race in smallish fields. When racing in fields of 11 or fewer runners his record reads 2222U2113F212 (3-13), suggesting each-way claims with a clear round.
BACK MIDNIGHT SHADOW AT 25/1 HERE
Found Mister Fisher a length too good at Doncaster last time, shaping as though the step up to 2m4f will suit. He started as the 9-2 joint-favourite for last year’s Supreme and wouldn’t be the worst 33-1 shot in the race.
Conclusion
Very hard to call at this early stage but Scilly Isles one-two ITCHY FEET and MIDNIGHT SHADOW would be high on the tentative shortlist, along with SLATE HOUSE and AL DANCER.