In the latest instalment of GG’s Cheltenham Festival tips and previews, Ryan Summerfield (@ryanOTHx) takes a look at the National Hunt Chase
OVERVIEW
The National Hunt Chase isone for the traditionalists and, despite receiving some bad publicity in the last few years, the race remains a fans’ favourite. However, some changes this year means the race could become less of a test, with two furlongs being chopped off the distance and horses now need to have gained a certain amount of experience and run at a minimum of 2m7f on a few occasions.
JOCKEYS TO WATCH
With this being an amateur riders’ race, it pays to focus on the jockeys. We all know the likes of Derek O’Connor, Jamie Codd, Patrick Mullins and Lisa O’Neill are nothing close to being amateurish with their riding ability, so it’s a huge advantage to have a jockey of their capabilities in this race. In the last ten years, only one jockey based on this side of the sea has been successful, whilst the other nine were all considered to be among the top amateurs in Ireland.
During the last decade, Derek O’Connor and Patrick Mullins have two wins each with four top-three finishes, whileJamie Codd also has two wins. Retired jockeys Katie Walsh and Nina Carberry also had fantastic records in the race. It’s also worth noting that 23/30 of the top-three finishers were ridden by Irish-based jockeys, with only seven coming from amateurs based in Britain. This is even more prominent over the last five years with every winner and 13 of the 15 placed horses ridden by Irish jockeys.
KEY CONTENDERS – CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC
In terms of trainers, Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have taken five of the last ten between them, with Elliott taking the prize three times.
Therefore it’s no surprise to see two horses trained by the pair, Carefully Selected and Champagne Classic, heading the market. They are also likely to have the services of Patrick Mullins and Jamie Codd, so clearly have fantastic chances.
I personally favour the chances of Champagne Classic, who is a previous Festival winner and Grade 1 winner over hurdles. Incredibly, in 15 career runs, in point-to-points, bumpers, hurdles and over fences, he’s never finished outside of the first three.
He’s a proven stayer, having won a Grade 1 over three miles as well as beating Discorama on heavy ground at Wexford. That’s an important piece of form because Discorama finished second in last season’s National Hunt Chase and then finished second to Delta Work at Punchestown.
Champagne Classic stayed on strongly to beat him at Wexford that day and has since ran well when chasing home Battleoverdoyen in a Grade 1 at Christmas.
BACK CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC AT 5/1 HERE
Carefully Selected has taken more of an unorthodox route, having been late to qualify for the race. Willie Mullins was forced to run him twice in a short amount of time and his latest run wasn’t mindblowing.
He got the job done, but his jumping was a big talking point as he gave his fences plenty of air. He isn’t a particularly bad jumper, it’s just that he doesn’t seem to be fluent or able to jump at a certain pace, which means he could be found out at the top level.
BACK CAREFULLY SELECTED AT 4/1 HERE
This horse is an interesting contender after qualifying for this with two good runs in Graded company at Newbury and Kempton He’s also likely to have Will Biddick aboard, who is one of the better British amateurs.
However, he doesn’t do well on the trends front, having little chasing experience and no previous Cheltenham form. All of the the last 12 winners had three or more runs over fences and Danny Whizzbang has had just the two. Nine of the last 12 winners had previous course form and he has none.
BACK DANNY WHIZZBANG AT 14/1 HERE
Two For Gold is a progressive chaser. He wasn’t as good over hurdles as some of these but he was always a big, raw chasing type and a light hurdling career has benefited him.
He’s progressed quickly over the larger obstacles with three quick wins gradually increasing in trip. His win at Warwick last time was very impressive because he made most of the running and fought off various challengers, including when he was headed after the last.
BACK TWO FOR GOLD AT 16/1 HERE
This horse is interesting at a bigger price. He was sent off at 15/2 for the Pertemps Final at the Festival a few years ago but was injured during the race. He joined James Nash this year and has been sent over fences this season, finishing a good second to two decent Willie Mullins horses.
His second last time behind Carefully Selected was eyecatching because he was badly outpaced when the race started to quicken but he stayed on strongly late.
A brother to Grand National winner One For Arthur, stamina shouldn’t be a question mark.
CONCLUSION
It’s clear to see why the top two are so far clear in the market as they were both Grade 1 standard as hurdlers and both have top Graded form over fences already. They’re trained by the best two trainers and they’re going to be ridden by the best jockeys too.
I’m confident that CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC will get the better of the pair as his form is just that bit better than Carefully Selected and the track, ground and trip all suit him to a tee.
FORZA MILAN would be very interesting depending who rides. He’s not won over fences yet but both runs have proved that he’s got the potential to be a better chaser than a hurdler. He’s clearly better the further he goes and he’s a horse with plenty of experience over obstacles. Keep an eye out for those jockey bookings!
Ryan Summerfield’s Best Bets
CHAMPAGNE CLASSIC 5/1 generally
FORZA MILAN 33/1 UNIBET