In the first of our Cheltenham Festival preview series, Rory Delargy (@helynsar) casts his analytical eye over the Stayers’ Hurdle. Is Paisley Park a certainty? Rory doesn’t think so
PAISLEY PARK did not have to be at his best to beat Summerville Boy in the Cleeve Hurdle last time, but the notable aspect of the performance was the closing sectional from the second-last, which was faster than the winner managed in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle 35 minutes earlier, and much faster than the other two races on the card.
He was also faster from the second last than he had been in the same race 12 months earlier, despite the ground being much deeper, and while such comparisons are dangerous without context, it’s clear why he was unable to repeat the wide margin of his 2019 victory, and he impressed with how he picked up Summerville Boy before pricking his ears and idling in front.
SUMMERVILLE BOY Has little to find, but he was the main beneficiary of the slow pace set by Johnny Burke in the Cleeve Hurdle, and the relative test of speed means that he still has a little bit to prove in terms of stamina, notwithstanding his strong finish on the day, while it’s hard not to conclude that Lisnagar Oscar was flattered by finishing third given he was well placed throughout.
If The Cap Fits disappointed in fifth, and that poor run leaves questions as to whether he handles the track, although to be kind, the Liverpool Stayers’ winner was left badly placed, and wasn’t given a hard race. He is arguably overpriced having drifted markedly on the back of that defeat.
BENIE DES DIEUX is the only runner – assuming that Apple’s Jade and Penhill are not the force of old – who can challenge the favourite in terms of recent figures, and both her defeat of De Bon Coeur in the French Champion Hurdle and her recent Galmoy Hurdle rout at Gowran Park make her a big threat in light of the mares’ allowance, and any notion that the mare is flattered by her wins is at odds with the very smart time she posted at Gowran.
Poor visibility makes it hard to assess form at times, as things can be missed, but the clock is always reliable, and despite the Galmoy being run at a very brisk tempo courtesy of Apple’s Jade, Benie des Dieux still managed to come home from the second last quicker than two of the other three hurdles races on the card.
Although she posted a slower closing sectional to the 103-rated winner of the following handicap hurdle, the latter race was run at a slow tempo until well after halfway, resulting in a relative dash, while the time also ignores the fact that Benie des Dieux was in complete command and not at all extended, with Paul Townend looking three times between his legs for non-existent dangers in the closing stages.
She has now run her best two races on her two tries at three miles and further, and the Stayers’ Hurdle would see her express herself better than the shorter trip of the Mares’.
Penhill held every chance in the Galmoy at the top of the straight but was left standing by his stablemate, and the 2018 Stayers’ Hurdle winner is clearly operating about a stone below his previous best this term, having been sidelined for 19 months.
City Island switches to hurdles after two defeats over fences, but his win in the Ballymore last year now looks like a standout on his record, and he would need to improve markedly on that form to be a player in March, which seems unlikely given his recent form.
STAYERS’ HURDLE VERDICT
Her participation is likely to remain in doubt until the last minute, but Benie Des Dieux has achieved pretty much the same level of form as Paisley Park, and while it’s almost certain that the latter will improve when set a stiffer task, it’s also a case that can be made for her, and she would be unbeaten had she not capsized here 12 months ago when assured of victory. She needs to be backed ‘With A Run’, and the general price of 5/2 (Boylesports, Bet365 and Skybet) is still generous in the circumstances.
Rory Delargy’s best bet
BENIE DES DIEUX 5/2 with a run BOYLESPORTS or 5/2 BET365