With the Handicap weights being announced, racing expert Dave Young (A.K.A. Cheltmental) will be bringing us a preview for the key Handicap races at the Cheltenham Festival. He’ll guide us through some of the key trends to follow in the race, whilst also looking at some of the main players in the race this year.
Here, he guides us through his thoughts for the the Coral Cup, ran on the second day of the Festival.
There’s still time to take advantage of alongside SkyBet‘s new customer offers – where you can choose between either £30 in Free Bets when you place ANY bet, or £40 in Free Bets for Horse Racing when you bet £10.
Last Ten Winners:
Last 10 Years Key Stats:
- 8/10 Were double figure priced winners
- 8/10 Were aged 7 or younger
- 7/10 Carried 11st or higher
- 6/10 Ran in the last 40 days or fewer
- 6/10 Rated 148+.
Alternative Trends
- 5 of the last 6 were aged 7
- Nicky Henderson has won 3 of the last 10 renewals
- Last 4 winners wore headgear
- Only one favourite in the last 19 years
- 11 of the last 12 had run at a previous Festival
FANCIED RUNNERS
CAMPROND
138 rated 7yo trained by Philip Hobbs and owned by JP McManus, this horse was a very good 4th in the race 12 months ago considering the ground would have been hugely against him. That run came off a 2lb higher mark and he went on to win in Ireland at The Punchestown Festival in April.
Tried novice chasing this season starting off a mark of 147 but didn’t jump well and unseated on debut. Tried once more but again jumped poorly but both those runs were on his preferred Good ground surface. This year he’s run three times over hurdles in handicaps, the first twice on soft ground which wouldn’t have suited where he was brought down at the second (which wouldn’t allow for a mark reduction) then a distant 17 lengths 12th here on trials day. He was dropped 5lbs for that, he ran again but on Good to Soft although over just 2 miles (a trip he hasn’t tried since prepping for last years Coral Cup) where he has a hood reapplied (used once before but had a negative affect then he won next time out) and was a 23 lengths 8th, dropping another 4lbs.
This looks like he’s been trained with redemption in mind and he has the back class as a Persian War winner to state that at just 7 years old, he’s more than capable of running above 138. Granted a level of this is taken on trust that this has been the plan since they aborted chasing (maybe the plate would have been the plan if not) but I’m prepared to say that he’s still a fair price all things considered.
RUN FOR OSCAR
Charles Byrnes trained 8yo rated 147 who won this seasons Cesarewitch on the flat and last won over hurdles back in 2021 in Ireland off a mark of 133 there (could be about 140 here). No course form but has been supported, I’m just not sold there’s enough substance to his form to suggest he’s going to win this.
HMS SEAHORSE
143 rated 5yo for Paul Nolan who was relatively impressive in Navan back in January when taking a 2m 4f handicap. Up 7lbs in Ireland for that and 4lbs higher here but was 4th in The Boodles off 128 (15lb lower mark) so has course form at least and that recent win came after gelding him which typically makes a significant difference.
No reason he can’t run just as well at the last festival despite this not being the lightest of marks and he goes on any ground so you wouldn’t worry about watching the weather for him.
LANGER DAN
Might not come here as has been in the last two Martin Pipes and they may look to make it third time lucky but there’s a chance I feel that they may come this way so Harry Skelton can ride him.
He’s not a complicated horse and he has just been unlucky, but he’s won 4 times over hurdles, each time under Harry and for all that he bumped into Galopin Des Champs in that first Martin Pipe he was 6lbs lower and coming there off the back a recent win.
He’s not shown any form this term although he did win at Aintree last season under Harry Skelton. That may be the plan to repeat the bid there, so exercise caution wherever he runs at Cheltenham, but I think they’ll have him ready for his life with Aintree a back up should he suffer any issue again. May not run as I’ve mentioned but most firms are not NRNB so there’s nothing to lose taking a punt (he is a hold up horse so typically Betfair SP is far greater than the industry SP, just FYI).
BEACON EDGE
A few people have been mentioning this horse for the race and while he’s a 9yo now he’s a horse I’ve always liked. He’s not a Grade 1 animal even though he did land one as a Novice Chaser but he is definitely better than a 147 horse, which he’s rated here.
The middle trip is ideal for him as he lacks speed and doesn’t have the class over 3 miles so lots to like and I can see why he’s been popular. He’s a fair price too and although there could be something less exposed in here, We do know that he’s been officially rated in excess of 150 since the back end of 2020 so he’s got a bit in hand if he’s firing.
CAPTAIN CONBY
Irish trained 6yo who is 6lbs higher here than his Irish mark so runs off 143. Last win came in a Novice hurdle while rated 114 but has run well in handicaps this season and has been kept off since December. Was good at Aintree when falling in a Grade 1 Novice hurdle but while outrunning his odds so that might be a target rather than this, especially as that UK mark doesn’t look the most helpful and he might be able to get that down. If they do try then he can run well, but I think he’s held for win purposes and might just be a horse for another time.
SAINT SALVADOR
7yo trained by Joseph O’Brien and beat Captain Conby the last day. He’s up to 138 since that run (14lbs difference, as opposed to the 11lbs of the runner up) sounds like he’s been harshly treated in comparison? Well that could be true but he’ll be better on nicer ground, he looks progressive with that just his 6th start over hurdles and I thought he had a bit up his sleeve too. See no benefit in targeting a race outside of this Festival so can see him running well.
ICARE ALLEN
Willie Mullins trained 5yo who isn’t even the shortest priced runner for the yard but I’m curious to see if he’s declared. Willie hasn’t the best record in the race overall but recently he’s been doing well with the select runners he puts in the race. 145 is the official rating for this horse but he was 7.5 lengths behind Vauban in the Triumph last season and that horse is now rated 160. He was 4.5 behind Fil D’Or who’s rated 151 here and only a couple behind Pied Piper who is 154 now.
He was supported to some degree in the Betfair Hurdle but his mark was reduced 1lb following his lacklustre looking 12th. Too bad to be true was my reaction as the horse has always had more in behind than in front bar one run where he had 4 in front and 4 behind. He’ll want ground slower than good but I don’t see it ever being that quick at a Cheltenham Festival so should be declared, with this a step up in trip which typically the juveniles from last season prefer, I think he’ll be well supported and I expect a massive run from him.
VERDICT
The Coral Cup has been won by horses at double-figure odds in eight of the last ten renewals, and I expect this year to be more of the same. Although Willie Mullins doesn’t have the best record in the race, I think he has an excellent chance of landing it for a second time with ICARE ALLEN.
His run in the Betfair Hurdle was too bad to be true, and his previous form would put him in with a big chance. The step up in trip should benefit him and if he’s declared, I’m predicting a huge run from him.
SELECTIONS – ICARE ALLEN (25/1 Bet365 + BetUK NRNB)