With the Handicap weights being announced, racing expert Dave Young (A.K.A. Cheltmental) will be bringing us a preview for the key Handicap races at the Cheltenham Festival. He’ll guide us through some of the key trends to follow in the race, whilst also looking at some of the main players in the race this year.
Here, he guides us through his thoughts for the the County Hurdle, ran on the fourth and final day of the Festival.
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Last Ten Winners:
Last 10 Years Key Stats:
- 8/10 Were aged 5 or 6
- 8/10 Last ran 45 or more days ago
- 7/10 Carried 11st 1lb or less
- 7/10 Were rated between 134-141
- 7/10 Were trained by Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton
- 6/10 Did not run in a handicap last time out
Alternative Trends
- 18 of the last 20 were in their first or second season hurdling
- 12 of the last 13 did NOT wear headgear
- 11 of the last 16 were Irish Trained
FANCIED RUNNERS
FILEY BAY
141 rated 7yo trained by Emmet Mullins and a recent purchase for JP McManus before The Betfair Hurdle, where he was second and a beaten 4/1 favourite. Made a few mistakes that day and the ground was rock hard, so while that might not have been completely against him, others may have enjoyed it more than he did. Ran off 133 in that Betfair Hurdle so up 8lbs effectively for a second placed finish.
Chance is there for all to see but that in turn reflects upon how he isn’t as unexposed as he felt before that last run. Looks short enough in the market to me considering the mark he’ll be running off, but in very good form this season and on an upward curve.
PEMBROKE
We’ve had winners of this in recent years who at some point could have been seen as Supreme Novice Hurdle horses and Pembroke does fall into that bracket for a yard who know how to win this race. Typically it’s Willie Mullins with the novice in here off a workable mark but Pembroke running off 136 here looks like he’s in light enough to me.
They tried 2m4f on his last start in the Grade 2 Classic Novices Hurdle on this course and he ran a good race to finish second behind Rock My Way. Was far too keen on debut when well behind Tahmuras but won nicely twice after at 2m and peaked at an RPR of 140 before his 136 last time out. His bumper form isn’t working out very well but that was 12 months ago and he looked to learn a lot from debut, but also from that last run.
Has the potential to be better than his mark and as mentioned at the start the yard know how to win this race, so any support for him would be noteworthy.
GIN COCO
Second in this season’s Greatwood behind I Like To Move It while getting 11lbs from that horse. Gin Coco is now rated 135 having not run since, but the winner is now rated 157 so there’s reason to think this lad has been well treated.
I appreciate he was beaten 5 lengths that day but I feel like the winner got first run, there were omitted flights which caused issue and I don’t think it was the best ride on Gin Coco. They pulled well clear of anything else so I think once the race was lost, the lengths added up quickly by design.
Better ground is where this lad has raced but I don’t think he’ll mind some cut under foot with his Sire being Cokoriko. I think he’s got a big handicap in him and it could well be this.
HUNTERS YARN
I mentioned earlier about the Supreme potential novices who end up here and Hunters Yarn would be one of those types should he line up. His mark of 147 looks a little high as he is a second season novice so is entitled to be a bit more forward than his regular novice rivals.
Goes on any ground and any Willie Mullins runner has to be respected but I’m leaning more to them running in the Supreme now because of that UK mark so it would be notable if he comes in instead.
SHARJAH
Like an Arctic Fire we’ve a horse here from Closutton who is one you’d say ‘is better than a handicapper’. He’s only once ran in a Handicap Hurdle which was back in 2018 at the Galway Festival where he won well off a mark of 146. For all that he’s been on the go a long while now and is a 10yo he’s still posting RPR’s in the 150’s although he is looking regressive now.
I wouldn’t say he’s got bundles in hand on the Official mark of 155 but he is 7lbs lower than the start of this season and he was within 4 lengths of State Man on that first run, none of the field in here would get that close. He’s also made significant mistakes the last twice but in two Champion Hurdle seconds he’s jumped perfectly and before those he was brought down so no fault of his own.
He travels strongly and Willie knows how to win this with a good horse so I’d say he’s a must for any shortlist and they must run him here and not The Champion Hurdle despite him retaining his entry for that this week.
WINTER FOG
Curiously easy to back on debut for Willie Mullins and that came after Patrick bought the horse from his cousin Emmet. That win came at 2m so while the UK Handicapper has taken no chances with a mark of 152 (compare that two a two time champion hurdle second in Sharjah who’s just 3lb higher), so while he may have been running at the wrong trip this is a big step forward on known form. Willie knows what he’s doing though, the fact he was easy to back at Christmas could mean he surprised them with what he did.
On balance I don’t think he’s worth risking as his peak form for Emmet was at 3m and the application of headgear in his defeats after would be reaching to think they knew all along he was a 2 miler.
AUCUNRISQUE
Has mixed chasing with hurdling this season and won The Betfair Hurdle last time out in pretty good fashion. Up 9lbs for that which might be steep so although I think he handles most ground he probably wants less rain than others.
Has only run on the old course twice here but ran well in those bumpers but he was well beaten by Jonbon at Aintree, and for all that the winner is potential a 160 horse now, Aucunrisque was 23 lengths back and I’m not sure he’s improved as much as he may have needed to in order to land this top tier event. Hurdling was not the intention this season, with his trainer confirming that he didn’t school well, so they’re not going for the Grand Annual which sounds like that was the preferred option.
VERDICT
With the impressive record Dan Skelton has in the race, Pembroke has to have a chance here and it will be interesting to see if there’s support in the betting for him. However, Willie Mullins has won four of the last eight renewals (including last year with the impressive State Man) and I think SHARJAH‘s class could prevail. He may be a 10-year-old now but he’s the class act in this and I think he’s a great bet – he’ll do for me!
SELECTION – SHARJAH (10/1 Bet365 NRNB + paying 5 places)