With the Handicap weights being announced, racing expert Dave Young (A.K.A. Cheltmental) will be bringing us a preview for the key Handicap races at the Cheltenham Festival. He’ll guide us through some of the key trends to follow in the race, whilst also looking at some of the main players in the race this year.
Here, he guides us through his thoughts for the first handicap of the Festival – the Ultima Handicap Chase, ran on the opening day of the Festival.
There’s still time to take advantage of alongside SkyBet‘s new customer offers – where you can choose between either £30 in Free Bets when you place ANY bet, or £40 in Free Bets for Horse Racing when you bet £10.
Last Ten Winners:
Last 10 Years Key Stats:
- 10/10 British Trained
- 8/10 Raced in the last 45 days or less
- 8/10 Priced 11/1 or shorter
- 7/10 Rated139-148
- 7/10 Aged 7 or 8
Alternative Trends
- 11 of the last 14 had run at a previous Cheltenham Festival
- 10 of the last 13 raced at Cheltenham the same season
- 9 of the last 11 wore a form of headgear
- Paul Nicholls is 0 from 24
- Irish are 0 from 34 in the last 16 renewals
- Only two favourites since 1994
- Only one repeat winner since 1983
FANCIED RUNNERS
CORACH RAMBLER
Last years winner who comes here just 6lbs higher having raced twice at the back end of last year and although well beaten on seasonal debut, ran pretty well in The Ladbrokes Trophy when 4th to Le Milos.
I’d think the Grand National is the main aim, although not doubt he can run well in here as plenty of other have used this race as a prep for the Big One at Aintree and run well. Would just bear that in mind, this will not be the main aim so he’s not going to be wound up fully, nor if he going to be flogged in this race if he makes mistakes. He does pick off rivals as opposed to burn them off so I’m sure he’ll pick up the pieces and be thereabouts in the finish.
NASSALAM
Currently rated 144 but has peaked at 145 twice in his career. Only a 6yo though, so he may have 8 runs to his name already, but there’s got to be more to come. Last seen here on New Years day when sporting first time cheek-pieces (has won in first time blinkers before) and he was staying on, just not at the same pace of the two who finished in front of him.
Hasn’t run over anything more than an extended 2m 4f which is a negative seeing as every winner this century had recorded their highest RPR over at least 3miles, but he did record a career best last time out.
INTO OVERDRIVE
8yo rated 147 but he hasn’t raced at this track on either course. Peak RPR of 152 the last day when winning the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing day and has shot up from an official rating of 123 to 147 in the last 11 months. Jumping has been an issue in the past however he’s better now and I don’t think you need to be the best jumper to win this race, you just really need to travel and stay.
He’s travelled in good company the last twice (penultimate run behind L’Homme Presse) and he is a 5 time winner from his 8 chase starts. I’m just not sold that he’s the best handicapped horses in here and 12 months ago (10th March 2022) he was rated 45lbs lower.
THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE
150 rated 8yo trained by Paul Nicholls and owned by the Sponsors of the race. Well fancied for The Ladbroke Trophy back in November when he unseated at the first fences while trying cheek-pieces for the first time. I wonder if those will be applied again back in here.
Big number to be winning such a competitive handicap off and the trainer has never won this race despite trying on plenty of occasions. He’s also finished a minimum of 15 lengths behind the winner in 3 of his last 4 starts, where the other, as mentioned, was when un seating at the first fence. Hard to be confident about.
THE GOFFER
Not really proven that he wants this much of a Stamina test but the Gordon Elliott trained 6yo is a horse I like (I put him up for the Martin Pipe last season). Not sold he’s much beyond a 149 horse of which he’s currently rated so coupled with the Irish record in this race and the question mark around the trip (peak RPR’s in last two seasons came at the middle trip), I’m a little surprised he’s as short in the betting as he is.
OSCAR ELITE
139 rated 8yo trained by Joe Tizzard and it’s believed this has been a season long target. Won The Reynoldstown last time out which is a Grade 2 Novices Chase and won that well in fairness. That was a sign that his ability is clearly still there after a couple of disappointing runs sandwiched either side of a relatively poor effort at Newbury in The Ladbroke Trophy for which I fancied him strongly.
Can bleed which is a big negative but can also be used to enhance his effort in this race 12 months ago where he was 3rd and didn’t quite stay the trip. That seeing out of the trip was probably more to do with the bleed and Reynoldstown winners typically stay very well. Only 1lb higher now than 12 months ago and looks to have a right chance. One final word; the owners are tempted with supplementing him for the 3m Novices’ Chase so he’s not a certain runner here.
FASTORSLOW
Has been very well supported this week and was only beaten a short head in last years Coral Cup. Lost his Novice Chase status back in 2019 in France so while he’s just had two spins over fences in Ireland this season, both well beaten in Grade 1’s, he’s probably not lacking in experience at home even though he made a couple of mistakes across those two runs this term.
Mark of 150 doesn’t scream out that he’s well treated but someone could take a few pounds off him in here if claiming and the money does highlight that he’s coming here trying and with some confidence that he can go close.
HAPPYGOLUCKY
Interesting potential runner as was a very well supported favourite back in 2021 off 147 (now rated 152) and was maybe a little unlucky to bump into Vintage Clouds that day as he won well at Aintree after and off a 2lb higher mark. Missed all of the following season and was next seen almost 600 days after that Aintree Handicap victory and ran a blinder really behind L’Homme Presse.
Spin here on New Years Day over 2m 4f was nothing more than a run in my opinion so I think they’d have been working back from this as a target and considering he’s a general 14/1 shot he could be a little bit of value here, especially with 5 places on offer too.
TEA CLIPPER
4th in this last year sent off at 12/1 in first time cheek-pieces while rated 144. He’s 3lbs higher now and has twice been beaten favourite in handicaps this season which makes him 0 from his last 6 chase starts and his only win coming on Chasing debut. Did notch up 4 wins over hurdles from 9 starts so it’s not like he’s doesn’t know how to win it’s just maybe he’s not an out and out stayer and probably not quick enough to be prolific over the middle trip.
Has a chance because I’m not sure we’ve seen his ceiling yet and his peak RPR last season came in this race with a number of 145, this season he’s already posted a 147 and a 151 which suggests he’s better than ever despite not being able to get a 1 against his name. Does really want good ground to show his best, so one for waiting on the day rather than a short term ante-post prospect.
VERDICT
The first Handicap of The Cheltenham Festival has always been one that feels really good to get the winner of so typically I’ll back more than one horse. It’s not the easiest of races being as it’s a target race for many yards but I do think the money for Fastorslow is very interesting and for all that he’s an Irish runner he’s on my shortlist. Nassalam looks like the step up in trip will suit but a dour stayer is needed to win this. OSCAR ELITE is a horse I’m a huge fan of and I’m confident he’s at least a high 140’s horse so I’m certain he’s well handicapped off 139. He’ll be a definite play for me but there is the concern with bleeding and some inconsistent form so I’d also want to be taking a chance on HAPPYGOLUCKY while he’s an attractive price. 14/1 feels too big for a horse who was sent off 100/30 two years ago and has shown this season that he’s definitely not regressed. He may not be the best treated horse in here but I think a good horse who stays well and likes the track is worth a lot more than a few pounds in hand.
SELECTIONS – OSCAR ELITE & HAPPYGOLUCKY