There is no bumper turnout for Chester’s annual Derby trial. The Chester Vase highlights Wednesday’s card and only one question can be asked: is there any way the favourite can be beaten? We give our answer below, alongside 888‘s new customer offer of £30 in Free Bets + A £10 Casino Bonus when you get £10.
Berkshire Rebel (Andrew Balding, David Probert) 12/1
Son of 2006 Derby hero Sir Percy, who made the perfect start to his racing career at Goodwood last season. However, life has been significantly tougher for him since.
He may not have been suited by Epsom when well-beaten on his attempt to follow up last September, though he did run with credit in the Group 3 Zetland Stakes over 1m2f. That is always a decent barometer of stamina, with recent winners of that race including the likes of Kew Gardens.
His return was far less enammering, however, as he finished last of three behind a pair of Godolphin-owned rivals. That did not mark him out as a Classic trial winner, let alone one who could contend on the biggest stage and he has his work cut out for him here.
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Changingoftheguard (Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore) 4/1
Ran three times without success as a juvenile last season, though did improve significantly on his final start at that age.
Two relatively heavy defeats came over 1m at Leopardstown last summer, but was then beaten just a neck by stablemate River Thames at Punchestown. The winter break clearly made a difference, as he returned a different animal at Dundalk.
It may have been a weaker race which he contested at the start of last month, but he still won well by six lengths from the front. Such tactics may have to be adopted again by Ryan Moore if he is to have a chance of downing the favourite.
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New London (Charlie Appleby, William Buick) 4/11
Unbeaten Godolphin runner and with the form Charlie Appleby and William Buick are in, this race could turn into a formality tomorrow.
This particular son of Dubawi was only a narrow winner on his debut at Newmarket last October. However, that came on soft ground over the maximum distance a juvenile can face of 1m2f. The fact he ground out the win gives every hope that he will stay 1m4f here, as well as having the requisite determination to be a regular winner.
His return was even more impressive, disposing of a well-touted rival carrying the same colours, again at Newmarket. Possibility that he is not even facing a rival of that substance here and almost impossible to see past him winning.
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Savvy Victory (Sean Woods, Tom Marquand) 14/1
Another who found winning elusive at two, Sean Woods’ charge was nonetheless on the premises on occasion last term.
Though well-held on debut, the son of New Bay was then placed on his next three starts, all over 1m. There is a chance he bumped into some useful types as well, so there was little disgrace in his performances.
His win on return came over 1m2f on soft ground at Pontefract, but given he ran well on good-to-firm last season, that may simply point to him having enough staying power for this assignment. Has loads to find on the favourite on bare form, but not a forlorn shout for the forecast.
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Verdict
The only way NEW LONDON loses is if this race is run in irregular fashion. Ryan Moore could try to unsettle the selection with uneven fractions on Changingoftheguard, who will probably lead, but despite an easy success at Dundalk, he is unlikely to have the class to win. Savvy Victory is preferred to Berkshire Rebel of the other duo, and could even make the forecast.
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