This year’s Christmas Hurdle may not be an appetising betting heat but fans will be excited to see racing’s current superstar back on the track.
GG writer Joe Napier previews this years race, before giving his verdict on who he expects to follow the short-priced favourite home.
One of two Christmas Hurdles run in the aftermath of the day itself, Kempton’s version is the second Grade 1 on their card. For the two-mile speedsters, this presents the mid-season stepping stone towards the Champion Hurdle. Nicky Henderson has regularly used this race for such a purpose, with Buveur D’Air and Epatante winning this en route to Champion Hurdle glory, while Willie Mullins sent Faugheen over to win this twice in his pomp.
With six lining up for this year’s renewal, Joe Napier previews how the race may set up.
Last year’s race was taken with otherworldly ease by Constitution Hill, who defends his title this term.
Key Race Trends
- There have been favourites starting at 4/11 or shorter in six of the last nine runnings, however, only four of the six have obliged.
- That said, seven of the last ten favourites have taken the race.
- Nicky Henderson has trained five of the last six winners.
- Five of the last ten winners had run in the Fighting Fifth on their previous start.
- Six of the last ten winners had already been successful at Grade 1 level.
Constitution Hill vs the Rest
At time of writing, Constitution Hill is a best price 1/6 to defend his crown and record an eighth successive victory under rules. His previous seven wins have been by an accumulative 89 lengths, the last six of which have been in Grade 1s. No rival has even forced Nico De Boinville off the bridle on the son of Blue Bresil, with his most recent SP coming in at 2/15 for the Aintree Hurdle in April.
So is there a negative? If you’re looking to back the field against him, you may point to this being his first start of the season, as he was forced to miss the Fighting Fifth on heavy ground at Sandown. Realistically, that should prove very little barrier for a horse as talented as him, as it hasn’t in the previous two seasons.
Detractors may also try and take heart from his Aintree Hurdle victory margin, which at three lengths was comfortably the smallest of his career so far. Ultimately, that was because he was in consummate control of the race even over the furthest trip he has faced under rules at 2m4f. Frighteningly, he may be getting even better at the tender age of six.
Good luck if you choose to be a layer, but I suspect there are very few of you.
Can the Field Give Him a Race?
The answer could probably be condensed to a single word, but we can at least try. His main competition is likely to come from Paul Nicholl’s Rubaud. The five-year-old is on a useful run of his own, having claimed four victories in a row, all over the minimum distance. Two of those were over course and distance too, while his best performance to date undoubtedly arrived last time at Wincanton, when taking the Elite Hurdle with authority.
However, even that leaves him with an official rating of 149, 26lb behind Constitution Hill. He is, at least, starting as close to the favourite as the rest of the field, which can be split into upstarts and fading lights.
The potential improvers both hail from Kerry Lee’s yard in Black Poppy and Nemean Lion. The former is in excellent form, winning two of his last four handicap starts and placing in the other two, but takes the most almighty leap in class given his official mark of just 130. The latter is a year younger at the age of six, and rated 10lb superior, but looks an unlikely runner having run at Ascot on Saturday.
On the other side, First Street may be young in years at only six, but he has 16 runs to his name already, with his last two providing disappointments. Both were at Kempton too, the latter on his debut over fences, while Sceau Royal is almost beyond veteran status now.
Big-Race Verdict
Barring anything unforeseeable, CONSTITUTION HILL will clean up for his second Christmas Hurdle and seventh Grade 1. This might be the weakest race he has faced since his debut, as he was at least challenged by former Champion Hurdle winning stablemate Epatante in this race last season, but he has nearly two stone on the field here. Rubaud should be the runner-up, and will probably be ridden for that position.
- Constitution Hill
- Rubaud
- Black Poppy
*Odds Correct At Time Of Writing – pm Thursday 21st December*
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