Most punters will be immediately restricting their Clarence House calculations to two horses for this weekend’s big race. However, splitting them can be tricky, with their head-to-head at 1-1, with clear distance between themselves and the rest at the top of Cheltenham‘s Champion Chase market.
If you are still unsure of who to back at Ascot, Joe Napier has run through the trends to try and split the big two ahead of the weekend’s action.
Editeur Du Gite won the Clarence House when hosted at Cheltenham last year, though Ascot’s most recent renewal saw another titanic Henderson-Mullins clash between Shishkin and Energumene.
Age
El Fabiolo will have to slightly buck a trend regarding age in that only three winners since 2010 have been seven-years-old, compared to six winners at Jonbon’s age of eight. To an extent, though, both have to overcome a trends disadvantage as five of the last seven winners have been aged nine and above.
Price
Favourites have generally obliged in the Clarence House Chase in the past decade, with seven of ten being victorious. However, even if you had backed all of them, the prices have often been so short, including four successive odds-on winners between 2016-2019, that you would be fewer than two points in profit on a level stake. Equally, two of the last three winners have provided 14/1 upsets, the latest of which, Editeur Du Gite, stunned 4/9 favourite Energumene.
Form
It is just as well that El Fabiolo and Jonbon have returned in top form: nine of the last ten winners had won on their previous start. The only one who had not was Un De Sceaux, that hat-trick scorer between 2016-2018, who had fallen on his run prior to his 2016 success. The big two are the only entrants to have won their most recent race, providing yet another reason to focus solely on them.
Course Record
Five of the last ten winners had won at Ascot/Cheltenham depending on where their renewal of the Clarence House was staged. Previous course form can definitely be a positive when it comes to the Clarence House, while multiple winners proved their aptitude for Ascot by winning further races at the track afterwards.
Number of Seasonal Runs
It has paid for most of the past decade’s winners to have had at least two races’ worth of match practice before arriving at Ascot. Four winners have come here off the back of just one run, though that is skewed significantly by the fact that Un De Sceaux always arrived having had just the one prep run. Then again, he was a stablemate of El Fabiolo’s, so it clearly works for the yard. No winner in the last nine years had raced more than twice, however, counting against both the outsiders.
Official Rating
The average official rating of the last ten winners is 167, demonstrating that you usually have to be a genuine Grade 1 horse to succeed in the race. 14/1 shots First Flow and Editeur Du Gite have brought that average down in recent years, but even Elixir De Nutz can only match the former’s rating of 156 currently. Victory for Jonbon would make him the third highest rated winner in the decade, while El Fabiolo would share second with Shishkin.
Verdict
Their trainers’ record can hardly count as another trend, nor would there be much splitting Willie Mullins’s three wins since 2016 courtesy of Un De Sceaux, with Nicky Henderson’s pair acquired by Altior and Shishkin. On the remaining trends, there is a slight tilt in favour of JONBON given this renewal should take place at Ascot. He has winning form at the track, albeit over hurdles, has had two runs this season in the build up, and is a more favourable age with more experience under his belt. El Fabiolo still ticks numerous boxes, especially as the favourite, but gives best on the trends overall.
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