Saturday’s feature contest is the Group 1 Coral Eclipse at Sandown, a race that has previously been won by some of the greats in the game, including Sea The Stars, Golden Horn and Enable to just name a few on the illustrious role of honour. Although it looks to lack a little depth this year, we still have some high-class horses battling it out for the Group 1 Prize over the 10-furlong trip.
I’ve looked at some of the key trends for the race and previewed all four runners chances before giving my verdict on who I’m backing to come out on top.
Odds correct at time of posting – 4.35pm 6th July
Trends and Statistics on the race:
- 6 of the last 12 winners were sent off the favourite.
- 10 of the last 12 winners were top 3 in the betting.
- 12 of the last 12 winners have had a previous run over 10 furlongs, with 10 of the last 12 winners previously winning over the 10-furlong trip.
- 11 of the last 12 winners have been rated 118 or higher.
- 7 of the last 12 winners have won on their previous start, with 10 of the last 12 winners having their previous run within the last 35 days.
- Only one Mare has won the race since 2000, which was Enable in 2019.
- 10 of the last 12 winners have then gone on to run in the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown that season, with 4 of the 10 winning it, and 3 placing.
- 5 of the last 12 winners have gone on to run in the Group 1 International Stakes at York, with 2 of the 5 winning it, and 1 placing.
Runner-By-Runner Guide
Paddington
(Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
The improver of the season so far, the Aidan O’Brien horse started out running in Handicaps this season, but is now a dual Group 1 winner, with one of the those wins coming in a feature contest at the Royal meeting last month.
They obviously wanted to take advantage of his lenient mark of 97, and he won those two handicaps runs in nice fashion at Naas and The Curragh. He then headed into Irish 2000 Guineas weekend with a fair few eyes on him, asking the question if he could improve enough to land a Group 1 contest on his first attempt. He duly obliged by winning the Irish 2000 Guineas with a fantastic performance, with his stablemate Cairo 2 lengths in 2nd, with Paddington pulling clearer and clearer the further they went in the race. The Aidan O’Brien horse had to then back in up in the St James’s Palace Stakes where he took on 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean, and it produced a cracker of a race. Paddington was well in touch with the leaders, before making very smooth headway three furlongs out to win, pulling away from Chaldean to win in the end by just under 4 lengths, really lengthening towards the line. Another top-class ride produced by Ryan Moore on the day, at a course he rides so well.
The Aidan O’Brien horse tackles this sort of trip for the very first time, and judging by his pedigree and performance last time out, I can only imagine this trip will not be an issue. However, the last 12 previous winners of the Eclipse have run or won at 10 furlongs, so he has that to prove against some real middle distance horses. He is the top rated in this race though and may still be improving. This younger pretender is the one they all have to beat even if he has the step up in trip to deal with, with the age weight allowance.
It’s also worth noting jockey Ryan Moore appears to be confident on his chances too, having said “Aidan’s record in these is very unique now. As he has for a long time, he keeps adding to the list. I don’t think he is done, either. There will be plenty more to talk about.” when speaking to RacingTV.
Emily Upjohn
(John & Thady Gosden/William Buick)
It is excellent to see Emily Upjohn still in training as a four-year-old, and John Gosden does so well with his older mares, just look at what Enable achieved in her later years. Although Emily Upjohn doesn’t quite have the CV Enable did at this stage, she is still a very classy mare in her own right, who is very much still in love with racing.
She was an unlucky 2nd in the Oaks at Epsom last season after blundering the start, before going on to really disappoint in the King George next time out where she finished last of six. There were a few question marks then placed on her head after that, but she soon put those questions to bed when winning the Champions Fillies and Mares Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day, beating Thunder Kiss by three lengths, really bouncing back in some style. Following that, she was declared to stay in training after that performance on Champions Day, where she lined up in the Group 1 Coronation Cup at the Derby meeting in early June. She travelled into the race in eye-catching fashion, before pulling clear to beat Westover who was running on well in second, but the Gosden filly was always doing enough out front.
Although she hasn’t run over the 10 furlongs since her Musidora Win last May, we know how battle hardened she is, and if this will be made a test of stamina, she will be bang there come the finish. The real one thing against her is there has only been one filly winner of this race since 2000, which was Enable. But the team know how to get these fillies ready for big races, and although she has a young pretender on her hands, she will always throw her ten pence worth into the mix. Frankie Dettori can’t ride due to a suspension; therefore, Champion Jockey William Buick takes the ride, who has been riding little bits of work on her in the week.
Dubai Honour
(William Haggas/Tom Marquand)
Although this contest does look between the main two in the market, it would be foolish to write off a William Haggas trained horse, especially one that is the second highest rated horse in the field and has probably the most experience out of all the field!
He was in fabulous form in the early stages of the year, winning two Group 1 contests over in Australia, at Rosehill and Randwick respectively, with some top-class middle-distance horses from other countries in the behind. I don’t particularly know too much about that form over in Australia, but they were hotly contested Group 1 races, and he won those races by 4 and a half lengths and 2 and a half lengths respectively. He then went to Sha Tin in Hong Kong to take on one of the leading 1m2f horses in Romantic Warrior, where he finished just under 3 lengths 3rd, just not having the pace needed for such a tight track.
He does have a fair bit to find on form in the UK, having to won in this country since a Newmarket Handicap contest in 2021. But it would be foolish to write him off, given his early season form overseas, he does have a young improving sort and battle-hardened filly to overcome, however.
West Wind Blows
(Simon & Ed Crisford/Jamie Spencer)
Jamie Spencer has made it a bit of a habit riding some shock winners lately, mainly during Royal Ascot week where he rode 50/1 Witch Hunter to victory and 80/1 Khaadem in the Group 1 feature contest for the Saturday. The Simon and Ed Crisford horses have been going quite well this season, operating at a 17%-win strike rate for the season and a 44% place strike rate. Their horse West Wind Blows would have to improve quite a bit to land a blow in this contest however, as he currently sits on the mark of 111, which is around about 9lb’s off the rest of the runners in this contest.
He was a Group 3 winner in France earlier on in the season and did run well in 2nd behind Pyledriver in the Hardwicke at Royal Ascot, although running on very well through the line considering he was badly hampered by the winner. He does look to be improving still and the run last time was eye catching, but he still needs to prove that last run wasn’t a fluke given the short priced favourite didn’t run to her true colours. It would come as a bit of a shock should West Wind Blows wins this race, but we have had a few shocks already.
Verdict:
This race obviously evolves around the main two in the market, and although they both have huge positives as to why they could win the race, there are a few trends against them – with only one filly winning this since 2000, and the last 12 winners of this contest have at least run over the 10 furlong trip. So there is no guarantee Paddington will stay, or he might get outstayed. It’s such a hard race to have a final verdict on, but one thing I will say is the Gosden’s have got Emily Upjohn back firing perfectly and given she has had a nice break before heading to this, with the Champion Jockey onboard, she is most likely the safest option to side with. That being said, it is very difficult to go against an Aidan O’Brien improver who thinks this race will suit perfectly and is a proven Group 1 performer on multiple occasions this season. If I had to be forced to decide, I would be siding with EMILY UPJOHN, only just as my heart has ruled over my head over this decision. But it is a fascinating race to sit back and watch.
Emily Upjohn (5/4 generally)
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